FEAR & GREED INDEX
Weekly Update
The Fear & Greed Index (found on cnn.com) is one of the easiest indicators to use to determine current market emotion. This simple to read gauge, highlighted in our publication When to Buy and When to Sell: Combining Easy Indicators, Charts, and Financial Astrology (available on Amazon), is measured in a range from 0-100, and currently reads 55 as of the close on Friday, August 21, 2026.
The gauge now sits on the cusp of the Neutral/Greed line, falling 10 points from last week’s close of 65. This was reflected in the S&P 500, which dropped 111 points, from 7,785 to 7,674, as markets pulled back this week until a slight rally on Friday.
The 7 internal factors used to formulate this gauge are listed on the screen (below):
Market Momentum – (S&P 500 vs its 125-day moving avg) = FEAR
Market Volatility (measured by the VIX) = NEUTRAL
Put to Call Ratio 5-day avg. (# of Puts (bearish) vs Calls (bullish) = FEAR
Stock Price Strength (# of new 52-week highs vs new 52-week lows) = FEAR
Stock Price Breadth (# of shares rising vs falling on NYSE) = GREED
Safe-Haven Demand (which measures stocks vs bonds) = GREED
Junk Bond Demand (non-govt. bond yield spread) = EXTREME GREED
This week, 3 of these 7 factors changed categories, as both Market Momentum and Strength weakened from Greed to Fear. The all-important, and wildly fluctuating, Put to Call Ratio flipped once again, from Greed to Fear, after the market pullback through Thursday. Safe-Haven Demand decreased to Greed, from Extreme Greed, which was rather insignificant as metals surged.
Moving Averages’ (MAs) bullish sentiment subsided this week, with the longer-term 200-days ending at 60%, slightly down from last week’s reading of 61% (with the DJIA still leading at 70%, down from last week’s 77%). The shorter-term MAs dropped as well, to 56% on the 50-day (vs 65% last week), and 52% on the 20-day (vs 62% last week), displaying the overall weakness. The Energy sector (constantly fluctuating with the daily change in the military conflict perception) and Healthcare (defensive) remained strong this week, while Utilities remains the weakest by far.
The “Risk-On” sentiment took a breather this week, as the U.S. National Debt reached a whopping $40 Trillion this week, combined with an overheated market that suffered 3 large down days. The VIX (market volatility), rose slightly, 0.8 points, to 15.1, by week’s end, vs last weeks close of 14.3, remaining calm with the low summer trading volume. As we often note, any break-through of the crucial “20” mark suggests a pullback, which it briefly hit on July 29. 10-yr bond yields increased 0.5 points, to 4.74%, from last week’s close of 4.69%, as interest rates have reached 19-year highs, which heeds caution. The big catalyst this week was the Wednesday announcement that the U.S. Treasury would be buying back U.S. bonds in attempt to support the struggling bond market, and quell rising interest rates (see our Did You Know – About Bond Buybacks blog, dated 8-21-26, for more details).
Economic reports this week focused on strong manufacturing and a steady job market. Leading indicators, both nationally and globally, rose this month, all of which are solid signs for the economy. Chip giant Nvidia (NVDA) reports earnings this coming week, after the close on August 26, which will be heavily monitored.
Astrologically, Leo season (self, leadership) has concluded, with Virgo season beginning yesterday, August 22. Leo, a fixed, fire sign, known for more weakness in market performance, saw a 175-point gain in the S&P 500, after an unusually weak Cancer season. Virgo season, however, is also typically weak, with low confidence and a conservative approach, as traders return from summer vacations. There are few catalysts at this time of year after earnings season completes, though trading volume starts to increase. The last 2 years have been positive, however, also bucking the trend over the past few decades. Major uncertainty persists in current market conditions, despite recent highs, which is not expected to change anytime soon, so proceed with caution. Please review our Sign Language – Virgo blog, dated 8-8-26 for more details.
Current shorter-term transits/aspects of note include the planet Venus transiting the sign of Libra (Aug 6 – Sept 9), signifying a fair, balanced, overall market in the short-term. The planet Mercury, will shift from the sign of Leo to Virgo on Tuesday (Aug 25), remaining until September 10, symbolizing more attention to specific fundamentals/reports. Major communications among global leaders remains in focus as well, as Mercury approaches a conjunction with the Sun on August 27. This could also move markets based on those positive or negative headlines.
Longer-term, the planet Jupiter remains in the sign of Leo until July 26, 2027, highlighting fashion, self-pleasing products, creativity, and travel (signified by the Consumer Discretionary sector), as well as leadership, defense, and gold (Please refer to our Trader Transits – Jupiter in Leo blog, dated 6-12-26, for further information). Stocks in those sectors (especially defense and gold) have shown some improvement, as expected, though discretionary stocks have stalled with last week’s low Consumer Sentiment reading and this week’s weak retail sales earnings/reports. Keep in mind that travel-related stocks are also sensitive to oil prices, which are vulnerable to the military conflict status (or “perceived” status). Also, as discussed heavily in recent months, Uranus (sudden, unexpected events/high technology) will remain in the sign of Gemini (communications, transportation, advanced technology) until 2033. Uranus’ energies were calmer this week, though quick, unexpected reversals, in both directions, as the market cannot seem to make up its mind (Gemini), are expected to continue, as we’ve expressed in the past several weeks. Please also review our Trader Transits – Uranus in Gemini blog, dated 3-30-26, for more details.
As we have noted for over 1 year now, sectors of the technology industry that are likely to continue their advance into the future include AI, robotics, quantum computing, and space development, with both Pluto positioned in Aquarius, and Uranus in Gemini for many years to come, though they will experience pullbacks (sometimes sizeable) along the way.
Gold (ruled by the Sun), and Silver (ruled by the Moon), surged this week, after a long consolidation period, with the Bond Buyback announcement weakening the U.S. Dollar. The Gold to Silver Ratio closed at 66.7, decreasing by only 1.1 points from last week’s close of 67.6, as both metals are moving together evenly. As we continue to stress, both metals remain good buys after pullbacks, so long as central banks continue to buy, which they are, and Safe-Haven investments remain popular, which is expected.
Finally, Bitcoin (ruled by Uranus) after also experiencing a long consolidation, reacted the same as Gold and Silver as an alternative to the dollar, as it surged this week. Its Fear & Greed Index suddenly reads 77, vs last week’s close of 36, as we suggested a rally over the last weeks. The Clarity Act, a bill designed to regulate the cryptocurrency and blockchain spaces in the U.S., may also help to boost the sector, after advancing through the committee on Friday, July 24, though it continues to await Senate approval. Please see our Did You Know? – About The Clarity Act blog, dated 7-26-26, for further information.
***As always, this information is not intended to be financial advice, or any specific buy or sell recommendation, but rather a guide to assist the reader in some further understanding of current economic conditions/movements in the sky, and how they can affect moods, behaviors, world events, and financial markets.
