FEAR & GREED INDEX 15
Weekly Update
The Fear & Greed Index (found on cnn.com) is one of the easiest indicators to use to determine current market emotion. This simple to read gauge, highlighted in our publication When to Buy and When to Sell: Combining Easy Indicators, Charts, and Financial Astrology (available on Amazon), is measured in a range from 0-100, and currently reads 15 as of the close on Friday, March 20, 2026.
This figure dropped further into the Extreme Fear level, after falling 5 points from last week’s close of 20. This was reflected in the S&P 500, which, after a decent start, lost about 126 points (209 in the last 3 days), from 6,632 to 6,506, as the global conflict remains the main culprit. As we often note, the further this gauge drops, the more likely a bounce in equities becomes. Though there is no official time frame to expect for reversal, historically markets rise out of this level within a couple of weeks. On the last two occasions, in late March/early April, 2025, the gauge dropped to 4, and was above 25 by mid-April, and in November of 2025, it dipped to 8 mid-month and recovered just after Thanksgiving. Prepare a “watch” list of strong stocks, and consider major indexes for the expected change of momentum. An end, or significant ease, to the military conflict could easily push stocks higher.
The 4 major indexes’ 200-day MA (Moving Average) have now dropped into bearish internal sentiment, as they have all dipped below 50%. The shorter-term 20 and 50-day MAs have significantly plunged, with the DJIA leading the way at only 7%, dragging the 200’s with them.
The “Risk-Off” sentiment was in full force this week, as geopolitical conflict, quickly rising mortgage rates, and rising inflation figures weighed on the markets. 10-year bond yields continue to rise, ending the week at 4.38%, vs last week’s close of 4.28%, confirming that the “risk-off” is not a result of a Flight-to-Quality move (selling stocks to buy bonds), but outright selling. The Mannarino Risk Indicator (noted in our monthly Indicator Insights blog, and our publication) has also reached 271, its highest danger level since the end of July.
The 7 internal factors used to formulate this gauge are listed on the screen (below):
Market Momentum – (S&P 500 vs its 125-day moving avg) = EXTREME FEAR
Market Volatility (measured by the VIX) = FEAR
Put to Call Ratio 5-day avg. (# of Puts (bearish) vs Calls (bullish) = EXTREME FEAR
Stock Price Strength (# of new 52-week highs vs new 52-week lows) = EXTREME FEAR
Stock Price Breadth (# of shares rising vs falling on NYSE) = EXTREME FEAR
Safe-Haven Demand (which measures stocks vs bonds) = EXTREME FEAR
Junk Bond Demand (non-govt. bond yield spread) = EXTREME FEAR
This week, only 1 of these 7 factors changed levels, as Stock Price Strength joined the rest in Extreme Fear categories, except the VIX, which is in Fear. As noted, the Put to Call Ratio, which spiked over 1 twice this week, remains in the Extreme Fear level, which often suggests that put buying may overdone, and a potential improvement in equities in the near future.
The VIX, measured by Market Volatility, oscillated again this week, closing at 28.4, compared to last week’s close of 27.2, reaching its height on Friday afternoon. The gauge has now remained above the crucial “20” danger-zone level for 15 straight trading days. As we warned over the past several weeks, March is normally very wishy-washy, but tends to improve over the 2nd half of the month.
News this week continued to be mainly focused on the geopolitical conflict in the Middle East, as the markets have been news driven over recent weeks. Oil prices crept up again to the mid-$90’s, as did the PPI inflation report, which did not bode well for stocks short-term. As the uncertainty remains, and the VIX remains over 20, markets are likely to continue their struggle. Do not forget, as mentioned in the past several weeks in this blog, we are in 2nd year of the Presidential Cycle, which has historically posted the worst returns of the 4-year cycle (please review our Did You Know – About the Mid-Term Election Year blog, dated 12-27-25).
Astrologically, Pisces season ended on Friday, and now gives way to Aries, the 1st sign of the zodiac, ruled by Mars (Mar 21 – Apr 19). Please see our recent Sign Language – Aries blog, dated 3-6-26 for full details. Pisces season provided the expected massive volatility, with the uncertainty theme in the equities markets. The very active sky continues into Aries season as Friday, March 20, mercifully marked the end of Mercury Retrograde. Both the Sun and Moon entered Aries together, and quad-witching options expiration day occurred on the S&P and Nasdaq (4 times per year) on Friday as well. Aries’ fiery, aggressive, act-first, think-later energies will now move to the forefront, requiring emotional control more than usual.
The planet Mercury remains in the sign of Pisces (Feb 6 – Apr 14), and is now “direct,” suggesting better communication and hopefully less volatility going forward, though geopolitical matters may supersede seasonality. The current Mercury Retrograde, from February 26 through March 20, ended with a 6.3% decline (440 points) in the S&P 500. As we often warn, this period of approximately 3 weeks (which normally occurs three times per year) is very volatile and usually results with a market decline/cycle bottom, as it did last April. When the event occurs in a water sign (Pisces on this occasion), the losses can be larger than normal.
The planet Venus remains in the sign of Aries (through Mar 30), combining its amorous and luxury energies with the full-speed ahead approach of Aries. Avoid “falling in love” with an investment, and wait for clear trends before jumping in with both feet.
The planet Mars, ruler of Aries (and Scorpio), remains in Pisces (through Apr 9), further prompting aggressive action. Mars formed a square with the planet Uranus two weeks ago, resulting in another sudden plunge in the technology sector. Mars’ overzealous energies can be dangerous in an uncertain market, so be sure not to FOMO into any speculative stocks for the time being.
As the planet Uranus (sudden events) approaches its final month in the sign of Taurus (money), until April 25th, wild price swings are expected to continue, especially in the technology (Uranus) sector. The planet returns to Gemini, ruled by Mercury (considered a lower-level Uranus) a sign of high intelligence and technology, in about 6 weeks, where it will remain until May of 2033.
Although the recent Saturn-Neptune conjunction (Feb 27), is beginning to separate, the effect is long-lasting with these slow-moving planets. This conjunction traditionally causes a pull and push between structure and restriction (Saturn) and dreams and ideals (Neptune), which has held true with the market uncertainty. With the Sun, Mercury, and Mars crossing over these planets during Aries season, the likelihood of rallies starting, and stopping, with no clear direction, remains.
Leading sectors continued to include Energy and Utilities, typical in current economic/global conditions, as all others have fallen off the map. Oddly, Utilities, which are usually a defensive play in troubled times, have suffered short-term losses as well. Current laggards, Consumer-related, Healthcare, and Financials remained very low, which is not a positive indication in the short term. These three, however, have reached historical short-term low levels, suggesting a bounce sooner, rather than later. Real estate also remains down, with decreasing sales reports this week. Sectors of the technology industry that are likely to continue their advance into the future include AI, robotics, quantum computing, and space development (with Pluto positioned in Aquarius, and Uranus in Gemini for many years to come – when it returns in April), though they will experience pullbacks along the way.
Gold (ruled by the Sun), and Silver (ruled by the Moon), plunged this week, despite continued uncertain conditions. The Gold to Silver Ratio (covered in our publication) rose almost 4 points, ending the week at 66.1, after last week’s close of 62.3, which is fairly neutral. Both metals remain good buys after pullbacks, so long as economic conditions remain the same, with central banks continuing to buy, and Safe-Haven investments expected to remain popular. Bitcoin (ruled by Uranus) showed some signs of life, as Uranus has turned direct in Taurus (money). Its Fear & Greed Index now reads 32, remaining in Fear territory, rising a modest 2 points from last week’s close of 30. A few weeks ago, we suggested a possible bounce when the reading was 18, though we remain cautious until a clear uptrend has developed.
***As always, this information is not intended to be financial advice, or any specific buy or sell recommendation, but rather a guide to assist the reader in some further understanding of current economic conditions/movements in the sky, and how they can affect moods, behaviors, world events, and financial markets.
