FEAR & GREED INDEX
Weekly Update
The Fear & Greed Index (found on cnn.com) is one of the easiest indicators to use to determine current market emotion. This simple to read gauge, highlighted in our publication When to Buy and When to Sell: Combining Easy Indicators, Charts, and Financial Astrology (available on Amazon), is measured in a range from 0-100, and currently reads 37 as of the close on Friday, September 25, 2026.
The gauge rose to the mid-Fear category this week, increasing 8 points from last week’s close of 29. This was reflected in the S&P 500, which gained 93 points, from 7,650 to 7,743, mainly attributed to Monday’s strong start.
The 7 internal factors used to formulate this gauge are listed on the screen (below):
Market Momentum – (S&P 500 vs its 125-day moving avg) = FEAR
Stock Price Strength (# of new 52-week highs vs new 52-week lows) = EXTREME FEAR
Stock Price Breadth (# of shares rising vs falling on NYSE) = EXTREME FEAR
Market Volatility (measured by the VIX) = NEUTRAL
Put to Call Ratio 5-day avg. (# of Puts (bearish) vs Calls (bullish) = GREED
Safe-Haven Demand (which measures stocks vs bonds) = NEUTRAL
Junk Bond Demand (non-govt. bond yield spread) = GREED
This week, 3 of these 7 factors changed levels, as sentiment in all momentum categories remain low, reflecting the continued fragile underlying structure of the markets in this seasonally weak period. The all-important Put-to-Call Ratio flipped again, as call buyers became over-exuberant at the beginning of the week, which is usually followed by a pullback, which did occur to some degree already. Safe-haven and Junk Bond Demand flip-flopped as well, as the continued drop in government bonds has become very worrisome to investors.
Moving Averages’ (MAs) bearish sentiment continued for the second straight week, with the longer-term 200-days in an official “bear” market (under 50%), sitting at 45% (vs last week’s close of 48%), with the DJIA still leading at 63%, up from 60%. The shorter-term MAs declined to 30% on the 50-day (vs 34% last week), and rose slightly to 29% on the 20-day (vs 27% last week), due to Monday’s “bounce.” Sector strength was very fragmented once again this week, as most continued to decline, with only Infotech remaining strong in the short-term, while Real Estate, Utilities and Consumer Discretionary continued to suffer with rising interest rates.
The “Risk-On” sentiment was ignited Monday morning on yet another positive report regarding the military conflict, and falling oil prices. By Tuesday this sentiment had faded, then picked up again slightly on Friday, and this ever-changing perception has resulted in tough sledding for traders. 10-yr bond yields remain elevated, spiking over 5% again on Wednesday, and ending the week up 0.17 points, to 5.17%, from last week’s close of 5.0%. Last week, bonds breached the 5% mark for the first time since October of 2023, and only the second time since 2007, just prior to the Global Financial Crisis. This level is reflected in the Mannarino Risk Index (highlighted in our monthly Indicator Insights review), which continued to climb, and now reads 324, vs last week’s 311, firmly into the mid-Extreme Risk level (max is 350), closing over 300 for the first time in 18 months, for the 3rd straight week. Despite being near all-time highs, the market is very nervous, and only being led heavily by the MAGS.
The VIX (market volatility), however, end the week flat, at 14.8 vs last weeks close of the same, remaining surprisingly low for the time being. The low summer trading volume has begun to pick up, as it usually does after Labor Day, and volatility normally follows. As we often note, however, any break-through of the crucial “20” mark suggests a pullback.
Economic reports this week were light, though increased manufacturing and lower unemployment increases the chance of another rate hike next month. The previously discussed Quarter-End Window Dressing may push stocks higher over the next few days, but we remain cautious for the time being. Consumer Sentiment fell again, to a 4-month low, keeping the Retail/Consumer Discretionary sector low.
Astrologically, Virgo season ended on Tuesday (Sept 22), and Libra season began on Wednesday, September 23, lasting through October 22, 2026. As noted, Virgo season is typically weak in the markets, with few catalysts, a conservative approach, and higher volatility, as traders return from summer vacations. Virgo season is also less broad, and more selective, which has been reflected by the declining RSP (equal weighted SPY), as the MAGS have once again taken the lead in holding up the overall market. This year, Virgo season ended mainly flat, with the S&P 500 losing only 24 points, though market internals worsened. Libra signifies balance, fairness, and justice, though the market itself is mainly based on emotion and sentiment. Currently, major uncertainty persists in market conditions, despite recent highs, which is not expected to change anytime soon, so proceed with caution. Please review our Sign Language – Libra blog, dated 9-8-26 for more details.
Current shorter-term transits/aspects of note include the planet Venus, which has now entered the sign of Scorpio (Sept 10 – Oct 25), signifying increased volatility from the calmer Libra. Also, a Venus Retrograde period, beginning October 3rd, traditionally negative for the markets, is quickly approaching. The planet Mercury also changed signs on the same day, from Virgo to Libra (Sept 10 – Sept 30), signifying more balance and less harsh judgments. The communications and infotech sectors have risen during this time frame, especially since Mercury formed a conjunction with the Sun on August 27. However, there will also be another Mercury Retrograde period (also very challenging for the markets), beginning October 24. Both retrogrades will last through the Mid-Term Elections, and end in mid-November. Please review our Did You Know – About the Mid-Term Elections blog, dated 9-23-26, for more details.
Longer-term, the planet Jupiter remains in the sign of Leo until July 26, 2027, highlighting fashion, self-pleasing products, creativity, and travel (signified by the Consumer Discretionary sector), as well as leadership, defense, and gold (Please refer to our Trader Transits – Jupiter in Leo blog, dated 6-12-26, for further information). Stocks in those sectors (especially defense and gold) have shown some improvement, as expected, though discretionary stocks have stalled with recent low Consumer Sentiment and Confidence readings. Keep in mind that travel-related stocks have slumped due to their sensitivity to oil prices, which are vulnerable to the military conflict status (or “perceived” status). Also, as discussed heavily in recent months, Uranus (sudden, unexpected events/high technology) will remain in the sign of Gemini (communications, transportation, advanced technology) until 2033.
The recent Uranus retrograde (Sept 10 - Feb 8, 2027), as explained in our recent Planet Power – Uranus Retrograde blog, dated 9-3-26, does not usually affect the market negatively. Uranus’ energies do continue, with quick, unexpected reversals, in both directions, however, as the market remains choppy and cannot seem to make up its mind (Gemini). This “divergence” is expected to continue in the short-term, as we’ve expressed in the past several weeks. Please also review our Trader Transits – Uranus in Gemini blog, dated 3-30-26.
As we have noted for over 1 year now, sectors of the technology industry that are likely to continue their advance into the future include AI, robotics, quantum computing, and space development, with both Pluto positioned in Aquarius, and Uranus in Gemini, for many years to come, though they will experience pullbacks (sometimes sizeable) along the way.
Gold (ruled by the Sun), and Silver (ruled by the Moon), declined this week, as the U.S. Dollar remains strong with the rate hike. The Gold to Silver Ratio closed at 66.6, up 0.5 points from last week’s close of 66.1, as both metals continue to move together evenly, with no real bias toward either one. As we continue to stress, both metals remain good buys after pullbacks, so long as central banks continue to buy, which they are, and Safe-Haven investments remain popular, which is expected. However, there may be a further pullback as another rate hike is increasingly expected in October.
Finally, Bitcoin (ruled by Uranus), is consolidating again, after a recent surge, and volume remains very low. Its Fear & Greed Index remained at the Greed level, ending the week flat at 73, after closing last week at the same. The Clarity Act, a bill designed to regulate the cryptocurrency and blockchain spaces in the U.S., which was helping to boost the sector, after advancing through the committee on Friday, July 24, awaits the next step as it did NOT receive Senate approval last week. Please review our Did You Know? – About The Clarity Act blog, dated 7-26-26, for further information.
***As always, this information is not intended to be financial advice, or any specific buy or sell recommendation, but rather a guide to assist the reader in some further understanding of current economic conditions/movements in the sky, and how they can affect moods, behaviors, world events, and financial markets.
