FEAR & GREED INDEX 22
Weekly Update
The Fear & Greed Index (found on cnn.com) is one of the easiest indicators to use to determine current market emotion. This simple to read gauge, highlighted in our publication When to Buy and When to Sell: Combining Easy Indicators, Charts, and Financial Astrology (available on Amazon), is measured in a range from 0-100, and currently reads 22 as of the close on Friday, November 14, 2025.
This figure remains in the Upper Extreme Fear level this week, after increasing just 1 point from last week’s close of 21, I a wild week on Wall Street. This was reflected in the S&P 500, as it rose a mere 6 points, from 6,728 to 6,734, as Friday’s early rally faded. The 4 major indexes (S&P 500, Nasdaq, Dow Jones Industrial, and Russell 2000), are hanging on to their internal bullish 200-day moving averages, with most just over 50%, and the leading DJIA now at 63%, a slight increase from last week’s 60%, as technology stocks took the hardest hit this week. Each index’ shorter-term 20 and 50-day MAs remain very low, confirming the market divergence, except the DJIA, which is at 57%. The MAGS continued their weakness this week, dragging down all but the DOW. Though November has been the most favorable month over the past few decades, caution was suggested the last two weeks with the weak internals. This month will be critical this year, with markets recently at all-time highs, a positive September and October, and December as a month where fund managers alter their portfolios to buy leading stocks.
The “Risk-Off” sentiment returned this week in this wishy-washy market.10-year bond yields were higher, closing the week at 4.15% vs last week’s close of 4.09%, as the largely expected rate cut in December is now in question.
The 7 internal factors used to formulate this gauge are listed on the screen (below):
Market Momentum – (S&P 500 vs its 125-day moving avg) = FEAR
Market Volatility (measured by the VIX) = NEUTRAL
Put to Call Ratio 5-day avg. (# of Puts (bearish) vs Calls (bullish) = EXTREME FEAR
Stock Price Strength (# of new 52-week highs vs new 52-week lows) = EXTREME FEAR
Stock Price Breadth (# of shares rising vs falling on NYSE) = EXTREME FEAR
Safe-Haven Demand (which measures stocks vs bonds) = EXTREME FEAR
Junk Bond Demand (non-govt. bond yield spread) = EXTREME FEAR
This week only 1 of these 7 factors changed levels, Safe-Haven Demand, as it joined several others at the Extreme Fear level. This is no surprise as it matches the overall gauge, with the sharp market drop, indicating investors were searching for safety.
The VIX, measured by Market Volatility, spiked heavily on Thursday, but closed the week at 19.8, vs. last week’s close of 19.1. The crucial “20” level, was pierced, and remains very close to that level, suggesting increased uncertainty among traders and investors.
The big news this week, of course, was the re-opening of the government on Thursday. Many of the scheduled economic data reports including CPI and Jobless claims, continue to be delayed, however, as the data was not compiled during the work stoppage. There are also estimates that GDP will be one full point lower due to the length of the shutdown. Earnings have been mainly positive, however, with 3rd quarter growth of over 14% (when it was estimated around 7.2%), though layoffs, at record highs, continue to weigh on the economy.
Historically, the equities markets have fared well following a government shutdown, as they have been higher in the short (1-month), intermediate (3-month) and longer-term (1-year) on 20 of 22 instances (91%) in the past 5 decades. Please see our recent Financial Focus – The Shutdown blog, dated 10-21-25, for further details. In the short-term beware continued volatility due to the economic uncertainty created by the record length of the shutdown.
Astrologically, Scorpio season (Oct 23 – Nov 22), continues for one of the most powerful signs of the zodiac (Please see our recent Sign Language – Scorpio blog, dated 10-4-25 for full details). As noted, Scorpio is ruled by the planet Mars (which also rules Aries), signifying strong, aggressive, no-nonsense energies, suggesting sharper price moves with continued volatility.
The planet Mercury is now transiting the sign of Sagittarius, a sign of optimism, but started its retrograde last Sunday (Nov 9 – Nov 29). Mercury Retrograde historically results in a market pullback, or at least added volatility, which on this occasion began a few days early in the “shadow” period. This retrograde will also include a brief return to Scorpio by Mercury, briefly re-visiting the sharp-tongued comments that could cause emotionally charged market reactions, usually reflected by global conflict.
The planet Venus has now moved out of one of its “home” signs, Libra, signifying love, balance, and fairness (symbolizing calmer markets) and has entered the sign of Scorpio (Nov 6 – Nov 26), where it will briefly be joined by Mercury, during its retrograde.
The planet Mars has settled into the sign of Sagittarius (Nov 4 – Dec 14), theoretically reducing aggression and volatility. As previously noted, Mars’ energies were very strong as it passed through its “home” sign of Scorpio, which resulted in divergent markets, despite all-time highs. With any luck, Venus taking over as Mars leaves Scorpio could signify a calmer more consistent market.
The planet Jupiter also turned retrograde (in the sign of Cancer) on Tuesday, November 11 (until March 11). As previously discussed, Jupiter has very powerful expansive energies, which may weaken a bit for the time being.
Finally, the planet Uranus, which is currently in retrograde until early February, regressed from the sign of Gemini to the sign of Taurus (money), on Thursday, November 7, and will not return to Gemini until April, 2026. This 6-month re-visit to the sign of money (ruled by Venus), could create more shocks to the markets, so beware. Please review our Planet Power – Uranus Retrograde blog, dated 8-27-25 for further details.
All these planets (with the exception of Jupiter) recently changed signs over a week’s time, predictably resulting in some unsettling price action. The first 2 weeks of November (the best month for stocks over the past few decades), has been very erratic as the government shutdown lingered.
Leading sectors, with over 50% of stocks trading over their 200-MAs, continue to be led by Utilities, holding steady around 87% (up from 90% last week), though it has started declining. after a brief drop. Utilities are considered “safe” investments, which tend to decline when “Risk-On” sentiment returns. Energy has finally started to turn upward after lagging for months, while Healthcare, remains solid. Real Estate and Basic Materials remain very weak with the negative economic conditions. In the long run, sectors of the technology industry that are likely to continue their advance into the future include AI, robotics, quantum computing (all of which surged late week), and space development (with Pluto positioned in Aquarius, and Uranus in Gemini for many years to come), but will experience pullbacks along the way.
Gold (ruled by the Sun), and Silver (ruled by the Moon), spiked mid-week, but ended relatively flat, with the market gyrations and interest rate uncertainty. As noted, the recent pullback was overdue from extended conditions/all-time highs. The Gold to Silver Ratio (covered in our publication), slipped this week, closing at 80.7, compared to last week’s close of 82.7, and actually fell below 78 for short time, but remains neutral. Both remain good buys after pullbacks in the current economic conditions, as central banks continue to buy. Bitcoin (ruled by Uranus) steadily decreased all week, in lock-step with the Uranus retrograde back into Taurus.
***As always, this information is not intended to be financial advice, or any specific buy or sell recommendation, but rather a guide to assist the reader in some further understanding of current economic conditions/movements in the sky, and how they can affect moods, behaviors, world events, and financial markets.
