FEAR & GREED INDEX 27
Weekly Update
The Fear & Greed Index (found on cnn.com) is one of the easiest indicators to use to determine current market emotion. This simple to read gauge, highlighted in our publication When to Buy and When to Sell: Combining Easy Indicators, Charts, and Financial Astrology (available on Amazon), is measured in a range from 0-100, and currently reads 27 as of the close on Friday, October 17, 2025.
This figure remained in the Lower Fear level this week, after slipping 2 points from last week’s close of 29, moving very close to the Extreme Fear level. This is a bit contradictory, as the S&P 500 gained about 112 points for the week, from 6,552 to 6,664, supported by a surge on Wednesday. The 4 major indexes, which include the S&P 500, Nasdaq, Dow Jones Industrial, and Russell 2000 (small cap index), remain in slightly bullish territory (when over 50% of their components continue to trade over their 200-day moving averages), though they have continued to decline over the last several weeks. Each index’ shorter-term 20 and 50-day MAs are well below 50%, sitting in the 30’s and 40’s. As mentioned, this pullback has been expected for quite a while, as the broad market has been trending in a bearish direction. The overall market is barely hanging on, slightly over that mark at 54%.
The “Risk-On” sentiment wavered as well, with some “Flight to Quality” movement this week (when investors sell stocks to buy bonds), combined with a stronger dollar. As a result, 10-year bond yields fell below 4% briefly, before closing the week at 4.01%.
The 7 internal factors used to formulate this gauge are listed on the screen (below):
Market Momentum – (S&P 500 vs its 125-day moving avg) = FEAR
Market Volatility (measured by the VIX) = FEAR
Put to Call Ratio 5-day avg. (# of Puts (bearish) vs Calls (bullish) = FEAR
Stock Price Strength (# of new 52-week highs vs new 52-week lows) = NEUTRAL
Stock Price Breadth (# of shares rising vs falling on NYSE) = EXTREME FEAR
Safe-Haven Demand (which measures stocks vs bonds) = EXTREME FEAR
Junk Bond Demand (non-govt. bond yield spread) = EXTREME FEAR
This week 3 of these 7 factors changed levels, led by Stock Price Breadth and the Put to Call Ratio, which makes sense with the broad market rally declining. We were already at Fear levels on the VIX since last week, which remains just over the “Danger Zone.”
The VIX, measured by Market Volatility, experienced wild ride for the 2nd straight week, spiking to 29 mid-week, after a new announcement of potential tariffs on China. It actually finished lower, however, at 20.8, vs. last week’s close of 21.6, as that threat partially subsided. As we consistently note, the “20” level on the VIX is often considered a crucial level, as anything under 20 suggests calm markets, and anything over reflects more uncertainty and/or nervousness among investors and traders. “Trick or Treat” was the theme all week, consistent with our statements over the last few weeks about the history of October. One little known fact we also mentioned last week is that when the VIX moves over 30% in one session (as it did on Friday, October 10), there is a recovery within 24-48 hours 98% of the time - a sign of a potential bounce at week’s beginning, that did occur prior to the tariff reaction.
This week’s economic data reports included the government Beige Book (reporting business activity), mortgage applications, and manufacturing, all showing negative results, while retail sales were mixed, and jobless claims slightly improved. These reports did not have a big impact on equities this week with the government shutdown continuing and the already volatile market.
Astrologically, we are closing Libra season in a couple of days, on Oct 22. We will now transit to Scorpio season (Oct 23 – Nov 22), one of the most powerful signs of the zodiac (Please see our recent Sign Language – Scorpio blog, dated 10-4-25 for full details. Scorpio is ruled by the planet Mars (which also rules Aries), signifying strong, aggressive, no-nonsense energies. The generally forgiving, balanced, and indecisive Libra energies, that symbolized non-directional price movement, will now be replaced by Scorpio’s high intensity, suggesting sharper moves with continued volatility.
The planet Mercury will remain in the sign of Scorpio for about one more week as well (until Oct 29). The improved communication and fairness between world leaders recently experienced (in Libra) hit a speedbump with the Mars (ruler of Scorpio) aggressive and confrontational energies expanded. Conflict, and verbal sparring, has often resulted in increased volatility in the markets, which it did once again this week.
With the planet Venus’ now transiting one of its “home” signs, Libra, love, balance, and fairness are signified (which can result in some calmness in the markets), as we head into a favorable time of year. Venus will remain in Libra from Oct 13 – Nov 5, before it also enters the sign of Scorpio.
The planet Mars, however, remains in the sign of Scorpio (one of its “home” signs), lasting through Nov 4, signifying more fireworks (aggression) and volatility, which so far has proven correct. Please review our Trader Transits - Mars in Scorpio blog, dated 9-13-25, for further details. As noted above, Mars’ energies are very strong as it passes through its “home” sign of Scorpio, which are resulting in a divergent market, despite all-time highs, so be cautious with position size. With any luck, Venus taking over as Mars leaves Scorpio could signify less volatility.
Leading sectors, with over 50% of stocks trading over their 200-MAs, continue to be led by Utilities (as the only sector over 69%), at a whopping 97%. Utilities are definitely reflective of uncertain/volatile times, as they are considered “safe” investments. The Utilities sector also has 94% of stocks exceeding their 20-day MAs, while the only others over 50% are Healthcare, at 75%, and Consumer Staples (which had been lagging), at 65%. Beware these readings on Utilities at this point, however, as it is at historically high levels and due for a pullback, at least in the intermediate term. Meanwhile, Energy, and Materials continue to lag. As noted over the past few weeks, Real Estate has begun to improve, along with Consumer Staples. In the long run, sectors of the technology industry that are likely to continue their advance into the future include AI, robotics, quantum computing, and space development (with Pluto positioned in Aquarius, and Uranus in Gemini for many years to come).
Gold (ruled by the Sun), and Silver (ruled by the Moon), both had a strange week, as they surged into Wednesday, then plunged the last two days, ending relatively even for the week. The Gold to Silver Ratio (covered in our publication), rose just slightly this week, closing at 81.7, compared to last week’s close of 80.3, as the recent surge in silver has balanced out this gauge to the point where neither currently has an advantage. Copper followed the same pattern this week, and is likely to resume its bullishness. All remain good buys after pullbacks in the current economic conditions.
***As always, this information is not intended to be financial advice, or any specific buy or sell recommendation, but rather a guide to assist the reader in some further understanding of current economic conditions/movements in the sky, and how they can affect moods, behaviors, world events, and financial markets.
