FEAR & GREED INDEX 29
Weekly Update
29
Market sentiment indicator showing FEAR at 29 as of Oct 10, 2025. Higher values suggest market euphoria and potential selling opportunities, while lower values indicate market panic and potential buying opportunities.
The Fear & Greed Index (found on cnn.com) is one of the easiest indicators to use to determine current market emotion. This simple to read gauge, highlighted in our publication When to Buy and When to Sell: Combining Easy Indicators, Charts, and Financial Astrology (available on Amazon), is measured in a range from 0-100, and currently reads 29 as of the close on Friday, October 10, 2025.
This figure plunged to the Lower Fear level, after dropping 20 points on Friday alone, and 25 points from last week’s close of 54, mainly on the announcement of new tariffs on China. This was reflected in the S&P 500, which declined about 163 points for the week, from 6,715 to 6,552, after the 183-point decrease on Friday reversed a slightly positive week. The 4 major indexes, which include the S&P 500, Nasdaq, Dow Jones Industrial, and Russell 2000 (small cap index), remain in bullish territory (when over 50% of their components continue to trade over their 200-day moving averages), though all have dropped to slightly over 50% with Friday’s downturn. Each index’ shorter-term 20 and 50-day MAs are now well below 50%, sitting in the high 20’s and 30’s. This pullback has been expected for quite a while, and has been trending in the bearish direction. The overall market is in a very similar position at the current time.
The “Risk-On” sentiment diminished as well, with stocks becoming riskier as Consumer Sentiment reached a 5-month low. The 10-year bond yields also dropped, closing at 4.06% this week, versus last week’s close at 4.12%, as bonds rose due to the market uncertainty (known as “Flight to Quality) and the steady rise of the U.S. Dollar.
The 7 internal factors used to formulate this gauge are listed on the screen (below):
Market Momentum – (S&P 500 vs its 125-day moving avg) = FEAR
Market Volatility (measured by the VIX) = EXTREME FEAR
Put to Call Ratio 5-day avg. (# of Puts (bearish) vs Calls (bullish) = GREED
Stock Price Strength (# of new 52-week highs vs new 52-week lows) = NEUTRAL
Stock Price Breadth (# of shares rising vs falling on NYSE) = FEAR
Safe-Haven Demand (which measures stocks vs bonds) = EXTREME FEAR
Junk Bond Demand (non-govt. bond yield spread) = EXTREME FEAR
Not surprisingly, 5 of these 7 factors changed levels this week, led by the VIX, which shot up over 30% on Friday. All factors declined, with the exception Stock Price Breadth and Junk Bond Demand, which were already at Fear levels. returned to Extreme Greed, from Greed, as the market turned upward again. Last week we noted that some “profit taking” was likely, and it all came to head on Friday. This is usually a sign that a swing bottom may be nearing, a potential bounce-back is lurking.
The VIX, measured by Market Volatility, remains in Neutral territory, finishing this week at 21.6, rising 31% from last week’s close of 16.6. As we consistently note, the “20” level on the VIX is often considered a crucial level, as anything under 20 suggests calm markets, and anything over reflects more uncertainty and/or nervousness among investors and traders. Last week’s blog noted that October can be “tricky” historically, and again, Friday was a perfect example. One little known fact is that when the VIX moves over 30% in one session, there is a recovery within 24-48 hours 98% of the time, another sign of a potential bounce at week’s beginning. Additionally, a 29 reading, which is very close to Extreme Greed (25), is not typical with a 21.6 reading, which is barely over the “Caution Zone,” another reason we may see a quick reversal.
This week’s news continued to focus on the government shutdown. Despite the negative connotation, previous government shutdowns have not had a bearish effect on financial markets, which explains why investors have shrugged it off thus far. Friday’s plunge had little or nothing to do with the shutdown, rather it was based on the announcements of further tariffs planned on China. There was positive news involving AMD and Oracle, which had boosted the chips sector prior to Friday. If this is an over-reaction, as usual, markets will calm and recover.
This week’s economic data reports were very limited due to the shutdown, however, the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment survey showed a 5-month low, not surprising given the current economic conditions. As we have been repeating for quite some time, the underlying state of the economy has not been overly strong, despite some periodic positive announcements and stock market highs.
Astrologically, we continue through Libra season, from Sept 23 through Oct 22. Please see our recent Sign Language – Libra blog, dated 9-5-25 for full details. As previously mentioned, Libra is generally forgiving and balanced, though its indecisive nature can symbolize non-directional price movement.
The planet Mercury has now entered the sign of Scorpio (until Oct 29). The improved communication and fairness between world leaders recently experienced (in Libra) may hit a speedbump with the Mars (ruler of Scorpio) aggressive and confrontational energies expanded. Conflict and verbal sparring often results in increased volatility in the markets.
With the planet Venus’ ending its transit through the sign of Virgo tomorrow (Oct 13), the harsher judgment and “reality check” for companies and countries who do not live up to expectations may ease, as the planet enters one of its “home” signs, Libra. Both signify love, balance, and fairness (which usually results in some calmness in the markets), as we lead into a favorable time of year. Venus will remain in Libra from Oct 13 – Nov 5, before it also enters the sign of Scorpio.
The planet Mars ingress to the sign of Scorpio occurred on Monday, September 22 (lasting through Nov 4), and signifies more fireworks (aggression) and volatility, which so far has proven correct. Please review our Trader Transits - Mars in Scorpio blog, dated 9-13-25, for further details. As noted above, Mars’ energies are very strong as it passes through its “home” sign of Scorpio. The strong Mars/Scorpio energies are currently resulting in a divergent market, despite all-time highs, so be cautious with position size.
Leading sectors, with over 50% of stocks trading over their 200-MAs, continue to lead by Utilities (as the only sector over 65%), which is currently at 90%. Utilities also have 94% of stocks exceeding their 20-day MAs, while the only other over 50% is Healthcare, at 57%. Beware this high reading, however, as it is at historically high levels and due for a pullback. Meanwhile, Consumer Discretionary, Energy, and Real Estate have continued to lag, and may be bottoming. In the long run, sectors of the technology industry that are likely to continue their advance into the future include AI, robotics, quantum computing, and space development (with Pluto positioned in Aquarius, and Uranus in Gemini for many years to come).
Gold (ruled by the Sun), and Silver (ruled by the Moon), were choppy this week, as they consolidated, which is not a bad thing, as they both need a breather from extended prices. The Gold to Silver Ratio (covered in our publication), declined again this week, closing at 80.3, from last week’s close of 80.8 (lowest level since mid-December), as the continued surge in silver has balanced out this gauge to the point where neither currently has an advantage. Copper rose again this week, before the plunge on Friday and is likely to resume its bullishness. All remain good buys after pullbacks in the current economic conditions.
***As always, this information is not intended to be financial advice, or any specific buy or sell recommendation, but rather a guide to assist the reader in some further understanding of current economic conditions/movements in the sky, and how they can affect moods, behaviors, world events, and financial markets.
