FEAR & GREED INDEX 38
Weekly Update
The Fear & Greed Index (found on cnn.com) is one of the easiest indicators to use to determine current market emotion. This simple to read gauge, highlighted in our publication When to Buy and When to Sell: Combining Easy Indicators, Charts, and Financial Astrology (available on Amazon), is measured in a range from 0-100, and currently reads 38 as of the close on Friday, April 10, 2026.
Though this reading remains in the Fear category, it improved significantly from the Extreme Fear level of the last couple of weeks, rising 19 points from last week’s close of 19. This was also reflected in the S&P 500, which surged 236 points, from 6,580 to 6,816, with most of the gains coming on Wednesday, with the perception of a cease-fire regarding the global military conflict igniting equities markets, which had been experiencing “over-sold” conditions.
The 4 major indexes’ 200-day MAs (Moving Averages) internal sentiment improved significantly, rising out of bearish conditions, into slightly bullish, with a rise of over 50% on all indexes. The shorter-term 20 and 50-day MAs saw a major boost this week, with only the DJIA continuing to show weakness on the 50-day.
The “Risk-On” sentiment returned with a bang this week, at least for the time being, as technology, consumer discretionary, and real estate reversed course upward, while energy reversed downward. There was no change in higher mortgage rates, and inflation figures remained steady, so beware of a potential “dead-cat” bounce, and the subsequent continuation of weakness. 10-year bond yields were basically unchanged, ending the week at 4.32%, vs last week’s close of 4.31%, with no change in sentiment that the interest rate policy will remain unchanged for the foreseeable future. Stagflation, when the economy is slowing and inflation is rising, continues to be a concern as well.
The 7 internal factors used to formulate this gauge are listed on the screen (below):
Market Momentum – (S&P 500 vs its 125-day moving avg) = EXTREME FEAR
Market Volatility (measured by the VIX) = NEUTRAL
Put to Call Ratio 5-day avg. (# of Puts (bearish) vs Calls (bullish) = EXTREME FEAR
Stock Price Strength (# of new 52-week highs vs new 52-week lows) = EXTREME FEAR
Stock Price Breadth (# of shares rising vs falling on NYSE) = FEAR
Safe-Haven Demand (which measures stocks vs bonds) = EXTREME GREED
Junk Bond Demand (non-govt. bond yield spread) = FEAR
This week, 3 of these 7 factors changed levels, led by Safe-Haven Demand, which did an about-face from the last several weeks, due to the pump in equities, which favored Stock Price Breadth, also showing some improvement. Almost all remain in Fear categories, however, so continue to be cautious.
The VIX, measured by Market Volatility, finally dropped this week, closing 4.6 points lower, at 19.2, compared to last week’s close of 23.8. The gauge dipped beneath the crucial “20” danger-zone level after 28 straight trading days, and likely needs to hold below that mark to realize any sustainable rally. Seasonally, the month of April tends to remain volatile in the early stages, but generally calms by the end. In 2025, the markets bottomed around April 8, due to tariff uncertainty, and current conditions imply these figures are dependent on the global conflict coming to an end.
The geopolitical conflict in the Middle East, and energy prices, remain in focus, as the market has been news driven over recent weeks, though that seems to be waning a bit as the market assimilates the war into prices. Economic data was steady this week, with CPI, jobs, and personal income levels remaining steady, though Consumer Sentiment remains low. However, during the FOMC minutes report, the quote “Inflation could be more persistent than the staff anticipated” is worrisome to investors, as it could indicate rate “hikes” in the future. Also, do not forget (as mentioned in the past several weeks in this blog), we are in the 2nd year of the Presidential Cycle, which has historically posted the worst returns of the 4-year cycle (please review our Did You Know – About the Mid-Term Election Year blog, dated 12-27-25).
Astrologically, we continue through Aries season, the 1st sign of the zodiac, ruled by Mars (Mar 21 – Apr 19) for another week. Please see our recent Sign Language – Aries blog, dated 3-6-26 for full details. Aries’ fiery, aggressive, act-first/think-later energies, which require more emotional control than usual, have been reflected with many strong starts to trading days that faded out by the close. These energies normally start to subside in the 2nd half of the month, but again may be dependent on the status of the military conflict.
The planet Mercury’s transit through the sign of Pisces will end this coming Tuesday, April 14, when it will also enter the sign of Aries. Communications may become more aggressive, regardless whether they have any basis, which again suggests some false rallies based on quick reactions to news items.
The planet Venus continues to transit the sign of Taurus (Mar 30 – Apr 24), moving from the full-speed ahead approach of Aries, to a much more grounded and logical Earth sign (Taurus). Venus’ is at “home” in one of its two “ruling” signs (Libra is the other) and is usually very favorable for Bitcoin. Although Venus in Taurus sees gains historically, it formed a square aspect with Pluto last weekend, possibly restricting a clear path to further gains in the short-term, so be cautious with trusting any rally this coming week. Please see our Trader Transits – Venus in Taurus blog, dated 3-26-26, for more details.
The planet Mars also entered the sign of Aries (its “ruling” sign with Scorpio), on Thursday, April 9, symbolizing aggressive energies ramping up again. Mars formed a square with the planet Uranus a few weeks ago, resulting in a sudden plunge in the technology sector, and will now form a square with Pluto (in Aquarius), so watch for more fireworks in that sector. Mars’ overzealous energies can be dangerous in an uncertain market, so again, be sure not to FOMO into any speculative stocks for the time being.
As the planet Uranus (sudden events) approaches its final days in the sign of Taurus (money), until April 25th, wild price swings are expected to continue, especially in the technology (Uranus) sector. The planet returns to Gemini, ruled by Mercury (considered a lower-level Uranus) a sign of high intelligence, communications, and technology, in about 3 weeks, where it will remain until May of 2033. Please review our Trader Transits – Uranus in Gemini blog, dated 3-30-26, for more details.
Although the recent Saturn-Neptune conjunction (Feb 27), continues to separate, the effect is long-lasting with these slow-moving planets. This conjunction traditionally causes a push and pull action between structure and restriction (Saturn) and dreams and ideals (Neptune), which has held true with the market uncertainty through March. With the Sun, Mercury, and Mars crossing over these planets during Aries season, the likelihood of rallies starting, and stopping, with no clear direction, remains.
Leading sector Utilities continued its strength this week, with recent leader Energy plunging mid-week, based on oil’s highly fluctuating prices. Recent laggards, including Consumer-related, Healthcare, Financials, and Real Estate bounced off of historic lows, as suggested in the last couple of weeks. The rally may be brief, however, as a retrace from those levels is not the same as an actual sustained reversal based on fundamentals or sector rotation. As we continued to stress, sectors of the technology industry that are likely to continue their advance into the future include AI, robotics, quantum computing, and space development (with Pluto positioned in Aquarius, and Uranus in Gemini for many years to come – when it returns on April 25), though they will experience pullbacks along the way.
Gold (ruled by the Sun), and Silver (ruled by the Moon), surged on Wednesday, along with the market, and held steady to weeks end. The Gold to Silver Ratio (covered in our publication) finished the week at 62.5, after last week’s close of 64, remaining rather neutral. Both metals remain good buys after pullbacks, so long as economic conditions remain the same, with central banks continuing to buy, and Safe-Haven investments expected to remain popular. Bitcoin (ruled by Uranus) continues its long consolidation, but did show signs of slight improvement. Uranus (sudden change/technology) now direct in Taurus (money), combined with Venus (money), also in Taurus, sets the stage for some fireworks, as noted above. Its Fear & Greed Index now reads 49, surging into Neutral territory, after last week’s close of 29. A few weeks ago, we suggested a possible bounce when the reading was 18, though we remain cautious until a clear uptrend has developed.
***As always, this information is not intended to be financial advice, or any specific buy or sell recommendation, but rather a guide to assist the reader in some further understanding of current economic conditions/movements in the sky, and how they can affect moods, behaviors, world events, and financial markets.
