FEAR & GREED INDEX 46
Weekly Update
The Fear & Greed Index (found on cnn.com) is one of the easiest indicators to use to determine current market emotion. This simple to read gauge, highlighted in our publication When to Buy and When to Sell: Combining Easy Indicators, Charts, and Financial Astrology (available on Amazon), is measured in a range from 0-100, and currently reads 43 as of the close on Friday, February 20, 2026.
This figure increased slightly to the mid-Fear level, in a holiday-shortened week, rising 7 points from last week’s close of 36. This was reflected in the S&P 500, which also rose about 73 points, from 6,836 to 6,909.
The 4 major indexes’ 200-day MA (Moving Average) internal bullish sentiment held steady, as they continue to sit in the 60’s – 70’s% range (with the DIA leading at 73%), while each index’ shorter-term 20 and 50-day MAs inched up slightly. The Nasdaq 100, however, continues to show some cracks in the armor as it hovers just above the bear territory 50% level.
The “Risk-On” sentiment fluctuated again the week, with a sudden “Flight to Quality” from stocks to bonds at the week’s outset, but tempering as the week progressed. As a result, 10-year bond yields remained near 2 ½ month lows, closing the week at 4.09%, vs last week’s close of 4.05%.
The 7 internal factors used to formulate this gauge are listed on the screen (below):
Market Momentum – (S&P 500 vs its 125-day moving avg) = FEAR
Market Volatility (measured by the VIX) = NEUTRAL
Put to Call Ratio 5-day avg. (# of Puts (bearish) vs Calls (bullish) = EXTREME FEAR
Stock Price Strength (# of new 52-week highs vs new 52-week lows) = EXTREME GREED
Stock Price Breadth (# of shares rising vs falling on NYSE) = EXTREME GREED
Safe-Haven Demand (which measures stocks vs bonds) = EXTREME FEAR
Junk Bond Demand (non-govt. bond yield spread) = FEAR
This week 3 of these 7 factors changed levels, as both Market Momentum and Stock Price Breadth improved slightly. The VIX, which had a very tumultuous week did return to Neutral, from Fear, by the close on Friday. As discussed, the seasonal volatility has returned, and mixed signals continue to keep uncertainty and risk aversion at heightened levels. It should also be noted that although the Put to Call Ratio did not change levels, it did move deeper into the Extreme Fear level, suggesting the put buying may be getting overdone, which would indicate an upcoming improvement in equities.
As noted, and expected, the VIX, measured by Market Volatility, oscillated quite a bit again during this holiday-shortened week, closing at 19.1, compared to last week’s close of 21.1. The crucial “20” level was pierced again, on both Tuesday and Thursday, confirming the current market uncertainty, as we discussed the past few weeks, with February being one of the seasonally weakest months of the year for equities over the past few decades. As also discussed, the chip sector, does have strength historically around the middle of the month, and experienced a nice boost during the week.
News this week mainly focused on Wednesday’s FOMC minutes (no real bias in interest rate policy) and Friday’s Supreme Court decision to strike down some of the implemented tariffs on foreign nations. Conditions change rapidly, so stay tuned.
As we also discussed the past few weeks, we have now officially entered the 2nd year of the Presidential Cycle, known as the Mid-Term Year, which has historically posted the worst returns of the 4-year cycle, at least leading up to the elections. Please see our Did You Know – About the Mid-Term Election Year blog, dated 12-27-25 for more details.
Astrologically, Aquarius season has ended (Feb 18), giving way to Pisces season, ruled by Jupiter, (Feb 19 – Mar 20), which is the 12th sign of the zodiac. Please see our recent Sign Language – Pisces blog, dated 2-6-26 for full details. The challenging Saturn energies of Capricorn and Aquarius have now been replaced by the energies of Jupiter (expansive) and co-ruler Neptune (imaginative, secretive), which again causes uncertainty in the equities markets.
The planet Mercury remains in the sign of Pisces (Feb 6 – Apr 14), an unusually long time for one sign, due to its upcoming retrograde beginning this coming week (February 26 - March 20). Miscommunication, false reports, and uncertainty on a global basis are back in play, and the retrograde will extend these energies. Be cautious with new investments through this period, and keep in mind that the Communication Services sector will likely remain weak.
The planet Venus is also transiting the sign of Pisces (Feb 10 – Mar 6), symbolizing dreams and irrational exuberance. Don’t fall in love with an investment, and again beware false information and/or break-outs. Its upcoming square aspect with Uranus next weekend also signifies sudden impulsive financial events.
The planet Mars remains in the sign of Aquarius until March 2, before also entering Pisces, leaving behind the Capricorn challenging energies that had slowed Mars down (please see our Trader Transits - Mars square Saturn blog, dated 11-29-25). The same overzealous energies can be dangerous in an uncertain market, so be sure not to FOMO into any speculative stocks for the time being. Mars will also square Uranus this coming Friday, so be extra cautious at the end of the week.
The planet Jupiter remains in retrograde in the sign of Cancer (until March 11), and as previously discussed, Jupiter has very powerful expansive energies, which have weakened a bit recently, but may ramp up again with the planet returning to prominence in March.
The planet Uranus finally ended its 6-month retrograde, turning “direct” a few weeks ago (Feb 4), but remains in the sign of Taurus (money) until late April. Right on cue, the equities markets experienced wild swings on Wednesday (the 4th), in both directions, indicative of the Uranus energies, which have continued throughout the month. This planet also formed a square aspect to the Sun on Tuesday (Feb 17), which resulted in a very strong start, which then petered out by days end, immediately following the 3-day holiday weekend. As noted above, it will square Mars this coming Friday, setting up a potentially very volatile day. Uranus returns to Gemini on April 25, where it will remain until May of 2033.
Finally, the long-awaited Saturn-Neptune conjunction arrived on Friday, the same day the Supreme Court (Saturn) made their decision regarding tariffs (Neptune). What happens next remains to be seen, but the retail sector benefited on the announcement.
Leading sectors, with over 50% of stocks trading over their 200-day MAs, continues to include, Energy, Utilities, and Industrials (safer, higher-yielding industries), while the laggards, Infotech and Communicative Services (which basically led all of 2025), remain low. Real Estate continues to improve as high paying Real Estate Investment Trusts (REITS) are returning to favor. Sectors of the technology industry that are likely to continue their advance into the future include AI, robotics, quantum computing, and space development (with Pluto positioned in Aquarius, and Uranus in Gemini for many years to come – when it returns in April), though they will experience pullbacks along the way.
Gold (ruled by the Sun), and Silver (ruled by the Moon), spiked again this week with the nervousness in the equities markets. The Gold to Silver Ratio (covered in our publication) remained steady, ending the week even at 60.4. Silver had been outpacing gold, though has been slowly evening off, lessening the imbalance. Both remain good buys after pullbacks so long as economic conditions remain the same, with central banks continuing to buy, and Safe-Haven investments expected to remain popular. Bitcoin (ruled by Uranus) continued to struggle the first half of the week, before leveling off. Crypto could experience a sharp upswing, as Uranus has turned direct in Taurus (money), but remains volatile as always. Stay cautious until a clear uptrend has developed.
***As always, this information is not intended to be financial advice, or any specific buy or sell recommendation, but rather a guide to assist the reader in some further understanding of current economic conditions/movements in the sky, and how they can affect moods, behaviors, world events, and financial markets.
