FEAR & GREED INDEX 54

Weekly Update

The Fear & Greed Index (found on cnn.com) is one of the easiest indicators to use to determine current market emotion. This simple to read gauge, highlighted in our publication When to Buy and When to Sell: Combining Easy Indicators, Charts, and Financial Astrology (available on Amazon), is measured in a range from 0-100, and currently reads 54 as of the close on Friday, October 3, 2025.

      This figure returned to the Upper Neutral level, after rising just 1 point from last week’s close of 53, despite the S&P 500 gaining every day. The index rose about 72 points for the week, from 6,643 to 6,715, after slowing a bit on Friday. The 4 major indexes, which include the S&P 500, Nasdaq, Dow Jones Industrial, and Russell 2000 (small cap index), remain in bullish territory (when over 50% of their components continue to trade over their 200-day moving averages), with the Dow Jones making the largest jump (77%). Each index is now over the 60% range, and all made some recovery to their shorter-term 20-day MAs, with all but the Russell back over 50%. The overall market strengthened a bit again, which is a good sign, as the MAG7’s took a breather late in the week.

      The “Risk-On” sentiment was neutral this week, a surprise given the Government shutdown, which basically had no effect on the markets. The 10-year bond yields declined slightly, closing at 4.12% this week, versus last week’s close at 4.17%, as the there is continued belief that the Fed will cut interest rates again at the end of the month. The recently mentioned Quarter-end Window Dressing (also explained in our publication), which often occurs near the end of March, June, September, and December, did boost stocks on Monday and Tuesday, helping round out the month on a winning note.

      The 7 internal factors used to formulate this gauge are listed on the screen (below): 

Market Momentum – (S&P 500 vs its 125-day moving avg) = NEUTRAL   

Market Volatility (measured by the VIX) = NEUTRAL                

Put to Call Ratio 5-day avg. (# of Puts (bearish) vs Calls (bullish) = EXTREME GREED          

Stock Price Strength (# of new 52-week highs vs new 52-week lows) = GREED          

Stock Price Breadth (# of shares rising vs falling on NYSE) = FEAR                 

Safe-Haven Demand (which measures stocks vs bonds) = GREED         

Junk Bond Demand (non-govt. bond yield spread) = EXTREME FEAR

      This week, 4 of these 7 factors changed levels, led by the Put to Call Ratio, which returned to Extreme Greed, from Greed, as the market turned upward again. This is usually a sign that some profit taking will occur, so beware. There was an interesting development within the gauge this week, however, as Stock Price Breadth slipped to Fear, while Safe Haven Demand rose to Greed. Despite an early decrease in gold and silver (Safe-Haven) on Thursday, they rebounded strongly on Friday, while the S&P 500 and Nasdaq flattened out. This could also be a short-term sign of exhaustion, so again be cautious with opening long positions for the time being.

      The VIX, measured by Market Volatility, remains in Neutral territory, finishing this week at 16.6, rising from last week’s close of 15.4. The “20” level on the VIX is often considered a crucial level, as anything under 20 suggests calm markets, and anything over reflects more uncertainty and/or nervousness among investors and traders. October can be tricky historically, with high volatility, so again beware the gyrations that are likely.

      This week’s news was essentially focused on the government shutdown, and the huge loss of expected job creation. The ADP jobs report came in at a -32,000, significantly under the 52,000 expected. This solidified the Fed’s recent rate reduction, and the potential for further cuts this year. Ironically, however, previous government shutdowns have not had a negative effect on financial markets, which explains why investors have shrugged it off thus far.

      This week’s economic data was again mixed, with pending home sales and manufacturing improving, while job creation and consumer confidence declined. As we have been repeating for quite some time, the underlying state of the economy has not been overly strong, despite some periodic positive announcements and stock market highs.

      Astrologically, we have settled into Libra season, from Sept 23 through Oct 22. Please see our recent Sign Language – Libra blog, dated 9-5-25 for full details. As previously mentioned, Libra is generally forgiving and balanced, though its indecisive nature can symbolize non-directional price movement.

      The planet Mercury completes its transit through the sign of Libra tomorrow, Oct 6, and enters the sign of Scorpio (until Oct 29). The improved communication and fairness between world leaders recently experienced, may hit a speedbump with the Mars (ruler of Scorpio) energies expanded. Sharp tongues, criticism, and volatility could increase.

      With the planet Venus’ transit through the sign of Virgo since Friday, Sept 19 (lasting through Oct 13), the suggested harsher judgment and “reality check” for companies and countries who do not live up to expectations has currently been reflected. Virgo normally keeps Venus in check, also signifying some increased volatility, and pullbacks from extended highs.

      The planet Mars ingress to the sign of Scorpio occurred on Monday, September 22 (lasting through Nov 4), signifies more fireworks (aggression) and volatility, which so far has proven correct. Please review our Trader Transits - Mars in Scorpio blog, dated 9-13-25, for further details. As noted above, Mars’ energies are very strong as it passes through its “home” sign of Scorpio.

      Leading sectors, with over 50% of stocks trading over their 200-MAs, continue to include Utilities (as the only sector over 80%), Communications Services and Consumer Discretionary (which have both begun to falter). Health Care, which had been the worst performing sector of late, has improved significantly, suggesting some “sector rotation” has occurred. Meanwhile, Consumer Staples and Real Estate have continued to lag (though the latter has improved recently). In the long run, sectors of the technology industry that are likely to continue their advance into the future include AI, robotics, quantum computing, and space development (with Pluto positioned in Aquarius, and Uranus in Gemini for many years to come).

     Gold (ruled by the Sun), and Silver (ruled by the Moon), both rose slightly this week, after a brief fall early on Thursday. The Gold to Silver Ratio (covered in our publication), declined again this week, closing at 80.8, slightly down from last week’s close of 81.5 (lowest level since mid-December), as the continued surge in silver has balanced out this gauge to the point where neither currently has an advantage. Copper rose again this week, and has remained in a solid uptrend since April.   

 

***As always, this information is not intended to be financial advice, or any specific buy or sell recommendation, but rather a guide to assist the reader in some further understanding of current economic conditions/movements in the sky, and how they can affect moods, behaviors, world events, and financial markets.

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