FEAR & GREED INDEX 55
The Fear & Greed Index (found on cnn.com) is one of the easiest indicators to use to determine current market emotion. This simple to read gauge, highlighted in our publication When to Buy and When to Sell: Combining Easy Indicators, Charts, and Financial Astrology (available on Amazon), is measured in a range from 0-100, and currently reads 55 as of the close on Friday, June 13, 2025.
This figure currently sits at the upper edge of the Neutral level (just shy of Greed), after declining about 5 points from last week’s close of 60. This was reflected in the S&P 500, which dropped slightly, about 9 points from 5,976 to 5,967, after a rather non-directional, holiday-shortened week. For several weeks we have focused on the fact that the four major indexes, which include the S&P 500, Nasdaq, Dow Jones Industrial, and Russell 2000 (small cap index), remained in bear market territory (when over 50% of their components continue to trade under their 200-day moving averages). Currently, only the DJIA remains above that level, now at 57% (down from 63% last week), while the S&P 500 (45%) and Nasdaq (44%) both slipped (though the Nasdaq 100 remains above at 58%). However, the Russell 2000, which was improving, remains in deep bear territory at only 33%, unchanged from last week. Overall, the recent Bear market conditions persist, as only 41.6 % of all stocks contained within these 4 major indexes now trading over their 200-day moving averages (up only .01% from last week). This suggests that the rally is not broad-based, and one must continue to be selective with stocks.
The “Risk-On” sentiment was basically neutral through most of this week, with the Federal reserve again holding rates steady, and the military conflict “comments” changing daily. The 10-year bond yields were mainly unchanged decreasing slightly from 4.41%, to 4.38%.
The 7 internal factors used to formulate this index are listed on the screen (below):
Market Momentum – (S&P 500 vs its 125-day moving avg) = FEAR
Market Volatility (measured by the VIX) = NEUTRAL
Put to Call Ratio 5-day avg. (# of Puts (bearish) vs Calls (bullish) = FEAR
Stock Price Strength (# of new 52-week highs vs new 52-week lows) = GREED
Stock Price Breadth (# of shares rising vs falling on NYSE) = EXTREME GREED
Safe-Haven Demand (which measures stocks vs bonds) = GREED
Junk Bond Demand (non-govt. bond yield spread) = GREED
This week, 3 of these 7 factors changed levels, led by the change in the Put to Call Ratio, from Extreme Greed to Fear, the exact opposite of last week. This measure is a leading indicator, which was reflecting more bullish sentiment, until the Middle East conflict reports. Also, Safe-Haven and Junk Bond Demand moved back into the Greed column (from Neutral) as bonds firmed up.
The VIX itself, measured by Market Volatility, remains in Neutral territory, declining only 0.2 points, from 20.8 to 20.6, despite and up and down week due to everchanging comments regarding the Middle East tensions, not improving market nervousness. The “20” level on the VIX is often considered a crucial level, as anything under suggest calm markets and anything over reflects more uncertainty and nervousness among investors and traders.
This week’s news was highlighted by falling home starts, sagging retail sales, lower manufacturing, and lower industrial output numbers. The Leading Economic Indicator (LEI) report this week inched down only .01, however was skewed by the rise in the stock market, as all the important indicators listed above were again negative. Friday also marked the quarterly expiration in the options markets of equities, including commodities, known as “quadruple witching.” Approximately $6.5 trillion in options expired, causing anticipated volatility as an unusually high number of positions were sold.
The FOMC meeting on Tuesday and Wednesday also resulted in another “hold steady” interest rate decision, despite many negative economic reports once again. Keep in mind that recession fears have not been fully quelled, with the Fed’s continuous inconsistent remarks regarding the economy from one week to another, combined with these mixed economic reports. Two weeks ago, a large majority of CEOs (83%) also said they expect a recession in the next 12-18 months (nearly matching the percentage who feared recession in late 2022 and early 2023), while the FED contends that no change in rate policy is currently necessary. This is also the time of year for the “quarterly window dressing” (when fund managers add high performing stocks to their portfolios) and the annual Russell Re-alignment (when stocks are added and subtracted from that index) to occur before the end of the month (June 27). Please see our publication and our Financial Focus – Russell re-alignment blog, dated 5-28-25 for more details.
Astrologically, as noted last week, the planet Mars completed its stay in the sign of Leo tomorrow, and has moved into the sign of Virgo. While in Leo, the equities markets performed as expected (noted in our recent weekly blogs), repeating its late 2024 uptrend, once again approaching All-Time Highs under this transit. Mars’ square with Uranus last Friday, however, immediately resulted in the unexpected aggressions in the Middle East. Mars in Virgo changes the landscape to a more selective and less broad sentiment (as Virgo seeks perfection), where underperforming companies will likely be punished. It may be time to take profits on some investments that surged over the past two months, especially those were just along for the ride.
Gemini season (May 21 – June 20) has now ended as of Friday, as Cancer season began yesterday. Gemini, an air sign, re-ignited the indecisive, push and pull energies, which replaced the calm and steady Taurus a few weeks ago. We now move into Cancer season, which runs from June 21 through July 21, which possesses emotional and protective overtones. Please review our Sign Language – Cancer Season blog, dated 6-10-25 for more details. As the planet Mercury traveled through Cancer the past couple of weeks, there were many emotional reactions (signified by Cancer) to the verbal sparring (Mercury) regarding the Middle-East tensions, which resulted in a back-and-forth market, based on the increased uncertainty. Mercury also conjunct Jupiter last week, expanding these energies. Be careful not to over-react to tariff comments, or any other sudden reports regarding interest rates, recession, or the overall economy.
Other transits of note include last week’s Venus into Taurus ingress, which commonly results in strong moves in Bitcoin, which has already seen a large move up followed by a large move down. The entry of Jupiter into the sign of Cancer (last week), often ignites a rally in silver, which started just a few days early and has leveled off (Please review our recent Trader Transits – Jupiter in Cancer blog, dated 5-22-25). Jupiter will conjunct the Sun this Tuesday, June 24, considered the “luckiest” transit of the year – so get your lottery tickets ready! The planet Saturn’s recent move into the sign of Aries, where it will remain for about 2 ½ years, also signifies a restriction on the recent aggressive energies, suggesting a slowdown in the rally. Please also review our recent Trader Transit – Saturn in Aries blog, dated 5-8-25 for further details. Also, the Mars/Uranus square, signifying sudden, aggressive, action, which coincided directly with the Middle east occurrence is pulling away. This would suggest an easing of tensions, but not necessarily a resolution. As Mercury travels towards Leo, tensions could increase again between world leaders.
Leading sectors with over 50% of stocks trading over their 200-MAs include the leaders, Communications Services (65%), Utilities (58%), and Information Technology (55%), which all declined, as well as Financials (51%), which climbed just above that mark. Industrials closed the week just under at 49% (slipping from 52%). In the long run, sectors of the technology industry are likely to continue their advance into the future, including AI, robotics, quantum computing, and space development (with Pluto in Aquarius, and Uranus upcoming ingress to Gemini in about 1 month).
Gold (ruled by the Sun), and Silver (ruled by the Moon), were divergent this week, as gold pulled back steadily from Monday to Friday, while silver was volatile with a surge mid-week, followed by a pullback. As noted, Jupiter (expansion) entered Cancer (ruled by the Moon) on June 9, signifying a potential much-anticipated rally in silver, as the Moon rules that metal as well. Also, as we have reported for several weeks, the Gold to Silver Ratio (covered in our publication) had remained disproportionate as it closed around 100 for several weeks, indicating silver was a better value buy than gold. The current rally in silver lowered the reading two weeks ago to 91.9, though it rose again last week to 94.9. This week, the gauge dipped slightly, ending at 93.4. The outlook remains the same for both, as any dip in these metals continues to be a long-term buying opportunity.
***As always, this information is not intended to be financial advice, or any specific buy or sell recommendation, but rather a guide to assist the reader in some further understanding of current economic conditions/movements in the sky, and how they can affect moods, behaviors, world events, and financial markets.
