FEAR & GREED INDEX 59
Weekly Update
The Fear & Greed Index (found on cnn.com) is one of the easiest indicators to use to determine current market emotion. This simple to read gauge, highlighted in our publication When to Buy and When to Sell: Combining Easy Indicators, Charts, and Financial Astrology (available on Amazon), is measured in a range from 0-100, and currently reads 59 as of the close on Friday, August 8, 2025.
This figure has inched back into the Greed level, as of Friday, ending the week 9 points higher than last week’s close of 50. This was reflected in the S&P 500, which gained about 152 points, from 6,237 to 6,389, as investor sentiment remained slightly bullish. The four major indexes, which include the S&P 500, Nasdaq, Dow Jones Industrial, and Russell 2000 (small cap index), had methodically improved from bear market territory (when over 50% of their components continue to trade under their 200-day moving averages), to bullish sentiment (over 50%), before last week’s decrease. This week, 3 of 4 are again above that mark, though the Russell 2000 remains below at 43% (an improvement from last week’s 37%). Currently, the 20-day moving average for all 4 indices combined remains just below the mark, at 49%.
The “Risk-On” sentiment returned during this week with some positive earnings and the MAG7 continuing their dominance. The 10-year bond yields did rise a bit, to 4.29%, after closing last week at 4.22%, a slight reversal from last week’s brief “Flight-to-Quality” (selling stocks to buy bonds) movement.
The 7 internal factors used to formulate this gauge are listed on the screen (below):
Market Momentum – (S&P 500 vs its 125-day moving avg) = GREED Market Volatility (measured by the VIX) = NEUTRAL Put to Call Ratio 5-day avg. (# of Puts (bearish) vs Calls (bullish) = NEUTRAL Stock Price Strength (# of new 52-week highs vs new 52-week lows) = GREED Stock Price Breadth (# of shares rising vs falling on NYSE) = NEUTRAL Safe-Haven Demand (which measures stocks vs bonds) = GREED Junk Bond Demand (non-govt. bond yield spread) = EXTREME GREED
This week, 5 of these 7 factors changed levels as some Greed sentiment returned to the markets. The Put to Call Ratio, which slid back from Greed to Fear last week, as more traders added Puts (bearish trades) after the 2-month rally, settled in at Neutral this week. The market appears to be at a crossroads at the current time, with Safe-Haven demand increasing, and Stock Price Breadth also Neutral, indicating a narrow market. As we have noted recently, the seasonal rally usually fades toward the end of the July, and September is seasonally weak (with the exception of last year).
The VIX, measured by Market Volatility, remains in Neutral territory, calming back down to 15.1, after last week’s rise to 20.4. The “20” level on the VIX is often considered a crucial level, as anything under 20 suggests calm markets, and anything over reflects more uncertainty/nervousness among investors and traders. This figure is again approaching a “reversal” level, suggesting another possible spike in volatility.
This week’s news was rather light, with some positive economic readings and earnings, though still a mixed bag. A mid-week announcement reducing or eliminating tariffs on semiconductor companies, who produce in the U.S., boosted that sector.
Astrologically, Leo season (July 22 – Aug 22) continues, and its proud and outgoing energies have been reflected in world leaders and CEOs. Please review our Sign Language – Leo Season blog, dated 7-10-25 for more details. Leo season is typically weak, and has been wishy-washy for the first 2 ½ weeks. The planet Venus moving into Cancer also suggests that emotions should be kept in check, and one should not fall victim to FOMO (Fear of Missing Out), as discussed in our recent Trader Transits – Venus in Cancer blog, dated 7-21-25. Venus will also conjunct the planet Jupiter in that sign early in the week, potentially boosting the homebuilder and defense industry.
Mercury Retrograde, which often results in volatility and pullbacks in the markets as well, will come to an end tomorrow, August 11. Although this period has been rather calm, the usual volatility resulted in a mixed market, unsure where to go. As we noted the last few weeks, tensions could increase again between world leaders, which always affects the markets short-term. The current trade deals announced/signed during this period, may not hold up, with possible revisions.
The planet Mars also changes signs, moving into Libra, a peaceful, balanced sign, though its opposition to Saturn and Neptune in the sign of Aries (ruled by Mars) can result in further confusion (Neptune) and challenges (Saturn) regarding global conflict and financial markets.
Leading sectors, with over 50% of stocks trading over their 200-MAs, continue to include Utilities, Communications Services, and Consumer Discretionary the only 3 over 70%. Information Technology, Financials, and Industrials remain solid (in the 60% range), while Energy and Real Estate continue to lag. In the long run, sectors of the technology industry that are likely to continue their advance into the future include AI, robotics, quantum computing, and space development (with Pluto in Aquarius, and Uranus recent ingress into Gemini).
Gold (ruled by the Sun), and Silver (ruled by the Moon), gained this week, as the dollar declined. As previously noted, the Jupiter in Cancer (ruled by the Moon) transit, which began on June 9 (and lasts for about 1 year), jump-started a much-anticipated rally in silver, as the Moon rules that metal as well. The Gold to Silver Ratio (covered in our publication), which had remained disproportionately in favor of silver for quite some time, has been steady in the past month, closing at 88.5, after last week’s close of 90.7, remaining near its lowest level since mid-December. The outlook remains the same for both, however, as any dip in these metals continues to be a long-term buying opportunity. Copper has also been rallying heavily following a sharp downturn, and its strength should continue absent any recession concerns.
***As always, this information is not intended to be financial advice, or any specific buy or sell recommendation, but rather a guide to assist the reader in some further understanding of current economic conditions/movements in the sky, and how they can affect moods, behaviors, world events, and financial markets.
