FEAR & GREED INDEX 74
Weekly Update
The Fear & Greed Index (found on cnn.com) is one of the easiest indicators to use to determine current market emotion. This simple to read gauge, highlighted in our publication When to Buy and When to Sell: Combining Easy Indicators, Charts, and Financial Astrology (available on Amazon), is measured in a range from 0-100, and currently reads 74 as of the close on Friday, July 25, 2025.
This figure remains at the cusp of the Greed and Extreme Greed levels, just a point lower than last week’s close of 75. The S&P 500 did rise about 92 points, however, from 6,296 to 6,388, as sentiment remained slightly positive. For several weeks we have focused on the fact that the four major indexes, which include the S&P 500, Nasdaq, Dow Jones Industrial, and Russell 2000 (small cap index), remained in bear market territory (when over 50% of their components continue to trade under their 200-day moving averages). Last week, 3 of 4 remained comfortably above that mark, though the Russell 2000 had slipped back below, at 47%. This week, it improved slightly, ending at 48%. The overall market (the average of these 4 major indexes) also ended about 1% higher, at 54%, slightly in bullish territory, after last week’s close of 53%.
The “Risk-On” sentiment remained steady this week and market nervousness/uncertainty continued at low levels, with the 10-year bond yields dipping .03% to 4.39%, just under last week’s close of 4.42%.
The 7 internal factors used to formulate this index are listed on the screen (below):
Market Momentum – (S&P 500 vs its 125-day moving avg) = GREED
Market Volatility (measured by the VIX) = NEUTRAL
Put to Call Ratio 5-day avg. (# of Puts (bearish) vs Calls (bullish) = GREED
Stock Price Strength (# of new 52-week highs vs new 52-week lows) = EXTREME GREED
Stock Price Breadth (# of shares rising vs falling on NYSE) = EXTREME GREED
Safe-Haven Demand (which measures stocks vs bonds) = EXTREME GREED
Junk Bond Demand (non-govt. bond yield spread) = EXTREME GREED
This week, only 1 of these 7 factors changed levels as the Extreme Greed sentiment continues. The Put to Call Ratio slid back slightly from Extreme Greed to Greed, as a few more traders added some Puts (bearish trades) after this huge rally. This type of emotion normally indicates a slow-down in the bullish price action, and a consolidation, pullback, or correction. The rally may still have legs in this seasonally favorable time, however, be extra focused on profit taking and mental stop losses, as the seasonal rally usually fades toward the end of the July.
The VIX, measured by Market Volatility, remains in Neutral territory at 14.9, dropping from last week’s close of 16.4. The “20” level on the VIX is often considered a crucial level, as anything under that level suggests calm markets, and anything over reflects more uncertainty/nervousness among investors and traders. This reading has been steadily moving downward, away from that 20 mark, and is approaching a level that often sees a reverse. Be ready for increased volatility in the near future.
This week’s news included some positive economic readings though still a mixed bag. Global manufacturing was slightly up, as were Durable Goods orders, while U.S. manufacturing was slightly down. Unemployment remained steady, while housing categories remained under pressure. The jobs report, however, suggest the Federal Reserve may continue their “wait and see” approach to lowering interest rates, which in turn will likely slow the rally in stocks.
Astrologically, Leo season (July 22 – Aug 22) began, following another positive Cancer season in the markets. The emotional and protective energies of Cancer have now transformed into the proud and outgoing energies of Leo, normally reflected in world leaders and CEOs. Please review our Sign Language – Leo Season blog, dated 7-10-25 for more details. Cancer season, which is normally very solid, ended with a gain of almost 1% in the S&P. Leo season is typically weak (last year saw an almost 1% decline in the S&P), and remains to be seen.
Also, Mercury turned retrograde last Friday (July 18), just a few days prior to the start of Leo season. Mercury Retrograde often results in volatility and pullbacks as well, and lasts about 3 weeks (through August 11). Please review our Planet Power – Mercury Retrograde blog, dated 4-1-24 for more details. Although this period has begun rather calm, there is still time. Tensions could increase again between world leaders, which always affects the markets short-term.
Leading sectors, with over 50% of stocks trading over their 200-MAs, continue to increase, with Utilities, Communications Services, Industrials, and Financials, most of which are historically important during bull market runs, leading the way. Health Care, Energy, Consumer Staples, and Real Estate have continued to lag. In the long run, sectors of the technology industry that are likely to continue their advance into the future include AI, robotics, quantum computing, and space development (with Pluto in Aquarius, and Uranus recent ingress into Gemini).
Gold (ruled by the Sun), and Silver (ruled by the Moon), both fell this week, with the firming of the U.S. dollar. As previously noted, the Jupiter in Cancer (ruled by the Moon) transit, which began on June 9, jump-started a much-anticipated rally in silver, as the Moon rules that metal as well. The Gold to Silver Ratio (covered in our publication), which had remained disproportionately in favor of silver for quite some time, has been steady in the past month, closing at 87.2, after last week’s close of 87.6, remaining near its lowest level since mid-December. The outlook remains the same for both, however, as any dip in these metals continues to be a long-term buying opportunity. Copper has also been rallying heavily after a sharp downturn, and its strength should continue with no current talks of recession.
***As always, this information is not intended to be financial advice, or any specific buy or sell recommendation, but rather a guide to assist the reader in some further understanding of current economic conditions/movements in the sky, and how they can affect moods, behaviors, world events, and financial markets.
