FEAR & GREED INDEX 75
Weekly Update
The Fear & Greed Index (found on cnn.com) is one of the easiest indicators to use to determine current market emotion. This simple to read gauge, highlighted in our publication When to Buy and When to Sell: Combining Easy Indicators, Charts, and Financial Astrology (available on Amazon), is measured in a range from 0-100, and currently reads 75 as of the close on Friday, July 18, 2025.
This figure remains at the cusp of the Greed and Extreme Greed levels, after remaining even with last week’s close of 75. The S&P 500 did rise slightly, gaining about 37 points from 6,259 to 6,296, in a relatively flat week. For several weeks we have focused on the fact that the four major indexes, which include the S&P 500, Nasdaq, Dow Jones Industrial, and Russell 2000 (small cap index), remained in bear market territory (when over 50% of their components continue to trade under their 200-day moving averages). Last week, after all four had finally reached that mark for the first time since the market correction that ended around April 8. However, the Russell 2000 had slipped back below, where it remains this week at 47%. The overall market (the average of these 4 major indexes) also remains even, at about 53%, slightly in bullish territory.
The “Risk-On” sentiment remained steady this week as market nervousness/uncertainty continued at low levels, with the 10-year bond yields unchanged at 4.42%.
The 7 internal factors used to formulate this index are listed on the screen (below):
Market Momentum – (S&P 500 vs its 125-day moving avg) = GREED
Market Volatility (measured by the VIX) = NEUTRAL
Put to Call Ratio 5-day avg. (# of Puts (bearish) vs Calls (bullish) = EXTREME GREED
Stock Price Strength (# of new 52-week highs vs new 52-week lows) = EXTREME GREED
Stock Price Breadth (# of shares rising vs falling on NYSE) = EXTREME GREED
Safe-Haven Demand (which measures stocks vs bonds) = EXTREME GREED
Junk Bond Demand (non-govt. bond yield spread) = EXTREME GREED
This week, 0 of these 7 factors changed levels for the 2nd consecutive week, as the Extreme Greed sentiment has taken over the market. This type of emotion normally indicates a slow down in the bullish price action, and a consolidation, pullback, or correction. The rally may still have legs in this seasonally favorable time, however, be extra focused on profit taking and mental stop losses, as the seasonal rally usually fades toward the end of the July.
The VIX, measured by Market Volatility, remains in Neutral territory at 16.4, after last week’s identical close of 16.4. The “20” level on the VIX is often considered a crucial level, as anything under that level suggests calm markets, and anything over reflects more uncertainty/nervousness among investors and traders.
This week’s news included several positive economic readings, with manufacturing, unemployment, retail sales, housing starts, and consumer sentiment all showing signs of improvement. Though a good sign for the economy, this suggests the Federal Reserve may continue their “wait and see” approach to lowering interest rates, which in turn will likely slow the rally in stocks.
Astrologically, Cancer season will come to a close this Monday (July 21), and will give way to Leo season (Aug 22 – Sept 22). The emotional and protective energies of Cancer will evolve into the proud and outgoing energies of Leo, normally reflected in world leaders and CEOs. Please review our Sign Language – Leo Season blog, dated 7-10-25 for more details. Cancer season, which is normally very solid, has seen a gain of almost 1% in the S&P, with one trading day remaining, while Leo season is typically weak (last year saw an almost 1% decline in the S&P).
Also, Mercury turned retrograde on Friday (July 18), just a few days prior to the start of Leo season. Mercury Retrograde often results in volatility and pullbacks as well, and lasts about 3 weeks, through August 11 (see our Planet Power – Mercury Retrograde blog, dated 4-1-24). Tensions could increase again between world leaders, which always affects the markets short-term.
Leading sectors, with over 50% of stocks trading over their 200-MAs, continue to include Utilities, Communications Services, Information Technology, Industrials, and Financials, most of which are historically important during bull market runs, while Health Care and Real Estate have lagged. In the long run, sectors of the technology industry that are likely to continue their advance into the future include AI, robotics, quantum computing, and space development (with Pluto in Aquarius, and Uranus upcoming ingress to Gemini in about 1 week).
Gold (ruled by the Sun), and Silver (ruled by the Moon), slid this week, with gold performing worse than silver. As previously noted, the Jupiter in Cancer (ruled by the Moon) transit, which began on June 9, jump-started a much-anticipated rally in silver, as the Moon rules that metal as well. Also, as we have reported for several weeks, the Gold to Silver Ratio (covered in our publication) had remained disproportionately in favor of silver, though it has been decreasing of late ending this week relatively even, at 87.6, after last week’s close of 87.2, remaining near its lowest level since mid-December. The outlook remains the same for both, however, as any dip in these metals continues to be a long-term buying opportunity. Copper has also been rallying heavily after a sharp downturn, and the strength should continue with no current talks of recession.
***As always, this information is not intended to be financial advice, or any specific buy or sell recommendation, but rather a guide to assist the reader in some further understanding of current economic conditions/movements in the sky, and how they can affect moods, behaviors, world events, and financial markets.
