INDICATOR INSIGHTS
Monthly Review
CATEGORY
Market Sentiment/Risk MO. END CHANGE LEVEL
Fear & Greed Index (Market sentiment) 31 -18 Fear
VIX (S&P 500 Volatility measure) 16.3 +1.4 Neutral
MMRI (Risk measured by interest rates) 335 +41 Extreme risk
U.S. 10yr-bond yield 5.3 +.5 Bearish
Fear & Greed Bitcoin 67 -9 Bullish
CSI (Consumer Sentiment) 48.1 - 3.6 4-mo low
U.S. Economy UP/DOWN LEVEL
LEI (Overall leading indicators) Slight Down Bearish (August)
GDP (Gross Domestic Product) Slight Up Bullish
ISM/PMI (Producers Manufacturing Index) Slight Down Bullish
CPI/PPI (Consumer & Producer Price Index) Slight Up Bearish HTE
Personal Income Slight Up Bullish/Neutral
Consumer Confidence/Retail Spending Down Bearish 12-month low
Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Slight Up Bearish
JOLTS (Unemployment categories) Slight Down Neutral LTE
ADP (Jobs – non-farm payroll added) Up Bullish HTE
(Initial and continued jobless claims) Even Bullish for economy
Transports (Shipping, durable goods orders) Even Neutral BTE
Real Estate (New/existing sales) Up Bullish
(Housing starts/Construction) Slight Down Bearish
(Mortgage demand) Down Bearish
Business Activity/CEO Confidence Up Bullish
**This section updated to the market close on September 30, 2026
**LTE = Lower than expected (bearish) / HTE = Higher than expected (bullish)
***We may not present the most recent numbers (often revised, and unreported in the mainstream media). Actual figures and charts can be found on the internet, including the FRED (Federal Reserve Economic Data) website.
Price Action UP/DOWN LEVEL
RSI (Relative Price Strength) Down Bearish
PCR (Put to Call Ratio – 5 day avg) Slight Up Neutral to bearish
ADL (Advance/Decline line) Down Bearish
MFI (Money Flow Index) Slight down Bearish/Neutral
Institutional Trading Even Neutral
Commodities MO. END CHANGE LEVEL
Gold to Silver Ratio 68.3 +1.6 Neutral
Crude Oil 90.42 +4.47 Bearish
Index Pct of Highs 20-Day 50-Day 200-Day LEVEL
OVERALL Markets 24 24 42 Heavy decline – bear level
DJIA (Blue Chips) 23 30 63 Heavy decline ST
S&P 500 (Top 500) 23 21 41 Heavy decline ST / bear LT
QQQ (Technology) 27 27 49 Cross to bear LT
IWM (Small Caps) 24 24 48 Cross to bear LT
As introduced in Chapter 3 of our publication When to Buy and When to Sell: Combining Easy Indicators, Charts, and Financial Astrology (available on Amazon), there are several “leading indicators” that go largely unnoticed and under-utilized by the average beginner or intermediate investor. Some of these indicators measure human emotion and market sentiment that often determines shorter term price action, while others uncover the true conditions of the economy, institutional buying and selling, and risk levels.
Our monthly updates in the “Indicator Insights” blog (first weekend of each month) provide month-end levels pertaining to the U.S. economy and/or the S&P 500. This includes several market psychology related gauges, including the S&P 500 Fear & Greed Index, although there will be no commentary, as we dedicate an entire separate weekly blog to that specific indicator. Please take a moment to review the attached figures.
In the last edition, covering August of 2026, we discussed how the month was uncharacteristically strong (based on its normal seasonal pattern), gaining 2.5% on S&P 500. However, all the gains came on the first 2 trading days of the month, making these figures a bit deceptive, skewing both July and August returns. Had July lasted 2 more days, the results would have been in-line with the common seasonality. Readings of note included weakness in bonds and rising oil prices once again. Also, the usual successful NVDA earnings report (Aug 26) did give the Nasdaq a boost on Thursday, August 27, however, a large portion of the gains reversed on Friday, August 28.
We also previewed the month of September, the statistically weakest month of the year, which had actually been positive the last 2 years. A lack of market boosting catalysts was noted, a rise in volatility was expected as low volume from summer vacations begins to increase, and uncertainty with the military conflict continued. An expected rate increase by the Federal Reserve, and a continued weaken bond market, were also anticipated to keep markets in check. Quarter-End Window Dressing was expected to provide a potential boost at month’s end, and despite recent market highs, we suggested it may be wise to wait for clearer opportunities to invest. The month ended essentially flat, as the S&P 500 declined only 35 points (less than ½%) as intra-day volatility persists in a market that can’t make up its mind.
Looking forward to the month of October, volatility is often the name of the game again, though historical seasonality results in a modest average gain of slightly over 0.5%. By this time, the markets are back in full gear, earnings season begins mid-month, and the holidays approach, generally putting the market in a “good mood,” setting the stage for November, the best month of the year of the past few decades. However, as discussed in previous blogs, the 2nd year of the Presidential Cycle is usually the worst, partly due to Mid-Term Elections in early November (Please review our recent blog by the same title, dated 9-23-26). Uncertainty, global conflict, rising oil prices, low consumer confidence, and rising interest rates persist at the current time, reflecting the back-and-forth price action that is likely to continue. Following the Mid-terms is a different story, however, as equities tend to trend upward for a few quarters, making the 3rd year of the Presidential Cycle the best of the 4 years. Remaining patient, selective, and able to put new money to work when opportunity arises is likely the best strategy in current conditions.
***As always, this information is not intended to be financial advice, or any specific buy or sell recommendation, but rather a guide to assist the reader in some further understanding of current economic conditions.
