INDICATOR INSIGHTS
Monthly Review
CATEGORY
Market Sentiment/Risk MO. END %/CHANGE LEVEL
Fear & Greed Index (Market sentiment) 35 +15 Fear
VIX (S&P 500 Volatility measure) 24.7 +1.9 Neutral but decreasing
MMRI (Risk measured by interest rates) 258 -11 High risk
U.S. 10yr-bond yield 4.17 +.02 Slight improvement
Fear & Greed Bitcoin 67 +23 Greed
CSI (Consumer Sentiment) 52.2 -18.9 Bearish (5-yr low)
U.S. Economy UP/DOWN LEVEL
LEI (Overall leading indicators) Down Bearish
GDP (Gross Domestic Product) Down Bearish
ISM/PMI (Producers Manufacturing Index) Slight Down Bearish
CPI (Consumer Price Index) Up Bearish
(Minus Food & Energy) Up Bearish
Consumer Confidence Down Bearish
Personal Consumption/Retail Spending In-line Neutral
JOLTS (Unemployment categories) Down Bearish
ADP (Jobs – non-farm payroll added) Down Bearish for economy
(Initial and continued claims) In-line Neutral
Transports (Shipping, durable goods orders) Down Bearish
Real Estate (New/existing sales) Mixed Bearish
(Housing starts/Construction Public/Private) Mixed Neutral
Mortgage demand Down Bearish
Business Activity Down Bearish
*This section updated on May 1, 2025
**LTE = Lower than expected (bearish) / HTE = Higher than expected (bullish)
***We may not present the most recent numbers (often revised, and unreported in the mainstream media). Actual figures and charts can be found on the internet, including the FRED (Federal Reserve Economic Data) website.
Price Action UP/DOWN LEVEL
RSI (Relative Price Strength) Up Bullish
PCR (Put to Call Ratio – 5 day avg) Slight Down Bullish
ADL (Advance/Decline line) Down Bearish
MFI (Money Flow Index) Down Bearish
Institutional Trading Selling Bearish
Commodities MO. END CHANGE LEVEL
Gold to Silver Ratio 100.5 +8.4 High Silver bias
Crude Oil 56.50 -12.56 Large decrease
** Effective January 2025, we have now added another category revealing the 20, 50, and 200-day percentage of stocks reaching cycle highs for the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA), S&P 500, Nasdaq Composite (QQQ) and Russell 2000 Small Cap Index (IWM), with periodic commentary.
Index Pct of Highs 20-Day 50-Day 200-Day Level
OVERALL Markets 34 26 35 Bearish - improving
DJIA (Blue Chips) 87 37 37 Bearish - improving
S&P 500 (Top 500) 81 42 36 Bearish - improving
QQQ (Technology) 89 45 40 Bearish - improving
IWM (Small Caps) 75 32 22 Bearish
As introduced in Chapter 3 of our publication When to Buy and When to Sell: Combining Easy Indicators, Charts, and Financial Astrology (available on Amazon), there are several “leading indicators” that go largely unnoticed and under-utilized by the average beginner or intermediate investor. Some of these indicators measure human emotion and market sentiment that often determines shorter term price action, while others uncover the true conditions of the economy, institutional buying and selling, and risk levels.
In our monthly “Indicator Insights” blog (first weekend of each month) we report the previous month-end levels (pertaining to the U.S. economy and/or the S&P 500) regarding several of these easy-to-read gauges (as well as others) to provide a quick-guide for our readers, with periodic analysis when necessary. Our monthly updates in this blog section include several market psychology related gauges, including the S&P 500 Fear & Greed index updated level, although there will be no commentary, as we dedicate an entire separate weekly blog to that specific indicator.
In the last edition, covering March of 2025, we noted the sustained negative tone to most economic indicators. The rise of mortgage loan/rent defaults, job loss, and personal debt, all continued putting pressure on the retail, manufacturing, and real estate sectors, which did not change much until the very end of April. April is a seasonably solid month in the equity markets, however the carry-over from March’s decline of 5.7% in the S&P 500 extended into the 2nd week of April. Although the S&P fell very slightly (42 points) for the month, it did rise almost 600 points from its April 8 low by the end of the month.
“Readings of note” in the month of April included the continuation of Leading Economic Index (LEI) bearish sentiment, which was reflected in the equity markets through the first week or so, before the relief rally. Consumer Confidence and Sentiment also remained very weak, hitting a 5-year low, with less spending taking a heavy toll on the retail and luxury (Consumer Discretionary), and real estate sectors. That, and the uncertainty regarding the ever-changing “tariff” threats between countries across the globe, continued to affect the equities market. Last month we highlighted our Money Flow category, as it continued to decrease as institutions and investors had moved to larger cash positions, due to the uncertainty. This month, we note that the Advance/Decline line took a drastic downturn early in the month, but has recovered most of the decline. This is important as it signifies a higher percentage of stocks advancing than the last month or so.
The Federal Reserve has continued its “wait and see” stance regarding rate policy, however the sentiment appears to changing as the negative economic news, and potentially lower inflation, may result in cuts beginning in the summer.
As we often mention, the Fear & Greed Index normally reacts quickly to extreme readings (below 25 or over 75). The reading, which spent most of March in the Extreme Fear category, reached historic lows of 4 through the first week of April, and has slowly climbed back to 35, as was suggested.
This month’s GDP reading of -0.3, however, also came in “lower than expected.” Though there are several factors attributed to this number, if the global tariff issue persists, the GDP could face a larger reduction, as manufacturing and production would decline further, indicating a recession.
Finally, we also highlight the Gold to Silver Ratio this month, as it has consistently remained above 100, indicating that currently silver is a better value than gold, though both remain solid investments on any pullbacks in price, with the current financial conditions (as we note each week in our Fear & Greed Index recap).
Remember to keep your stop-loss orders mental (not in the system), and keep some cash aside to take advantage of buying opportunities. Also, short-term investors and traders should beware of any false rallies, as they occur often during bear markets, and the tariff news seems to change on a daily basis.
***As always, this information is not intended to be financial advice, or any specific buy or sell recommendation, but rather a guide to assist the reader in some further understanding of current economic conditions.
