INDICATOR INSIGHTS

Monthly Update

CATEGORY                                                       

Market Sentiment/Risk                          MO. END   CHANGE    LEVEL

Fear & Greed Index (Market sentiment)                   24               -11            Extreme Fear

VIX (S&P 500 Volatility measure)                          16.5             -0.9          Neutral

MMRI (Risk measured by interest rates)                  248               -5            High risk

U.S. 10yr-bond yield                                                 4.02            -.06           Decrease

Fear & Greed Bitcoin                                                 20               -4             Extreme Fear

CSI (Consumer Sentiment)                                   51             -2.6           2.5 yr low

U.S. Economy                                                      UP/DOWN       LEVEL

LEI (Overall leading indicators)                                    NO DATA            N/A

GDP (Gross Domestic Product)                                  NO DATA            N/A     

ISM/PMI (Producers Manufacturing Index)               Slight Up          Bullish    

CPI (Consumer Price Index)                                        Slight Down       Bullish       

       (Minus Food & Energy)                                          Slight Down       Bullish

Consumer Confidence/Retail Spending            Slight Up        Bullish     

Personal Consumption Expenditures                           NO DATA            N/A           

JOLTS (Unemployment categories)                              NO DATA            N/A

ADP (Jobs – non-farm payroll added)                           NO DATA            N/A         

         (Initial and continued jobless claims)                   NO DATA            N/A

Transports (Shipping, durable goods orders)             Slight Up           Bullish     

Real Estate (New/existing sales)                                      MIXED             Neutral   

  (Housing starts/Construction)                                        MIXED             Neutral

  (Mortgage demand)                                                      Slight Up           Signs of recovering

Business Activity/CEO Confidence                              Slight Down       Bearish   

**This section updated on October 31, 2025

**LTE = Lower than expected (bearish) / HTE = Higher than expected (bullish)

***We may not present the most recent numbers (often revised, and unreported in the mainstream media). Actual figures and charts can be found on the internet, including the FRED (Federal Reserve Economic Data) website.

Price Action                                               UP/DOWN        LEVEL

RSI (Relative Price Strength)                                      Up                 Bullish – In past week

PCR (Put to Call Ratio – 5 day avg)          Slight Down      Bullish

ADL (Advance/Decline line)                                     Down              Bearish but improving         

MFI (Money Flow Index)                                          Down              Bearish but improving

Institutional Trading                                                  Selling             Bearish but slowing this week

Commodities                                  MO. END   CHANGE    LEVEL

Gold to Silver Ratio                                  74.7             -6.4          Favoring Gold

Crude Oil                                                  58.48          -2.40         Decrease

** Effective January 2025, we have now added another category revealing the 20, 50, and 200-day percentage of stocks reaching cycle highs for the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA), S&P 500 (SPY), Nasdaq Composite (QQQ) and Russell 2000 Small Cap Index (IWM), with periodic commentary.

Index Pct of Highs               20-Day   50-Day   200-Day   Level

OVERALL Markets                      68            52            57          Bullish – surge in past week

DJIA  (Blue Chips)                           70            60           63          Even  

S&P 500  (Top 500)                      77           58            60          Bullish – surge in past week

QQQ  (Technology)                        67            53            61          Bullish –     “     “    “      “  

IWM  (Small Caps)                          72           55             60          Bullish –     “     “    “      “

    As introduced in Chapter 3 of our publication When to Buy and When to Sell: Combining Easy Indicators, Charts, and Financial Astrology (available on Amazon), there are several “leading indicators” that go largely unnoticed and under-utilized by the average beginner or intermediate investor. Some of these indicators measure human emotion and market sentiment that often determines shorter term price action, while others uncover the true conditions of the economy, institutional buying and selling, and risk levels. 

     In our monthly “Indicator Insights” blog (first weekend of each month) we report the previous month-end levels (pertaining to the U.S. economy and/or the S&P 500) regarding several of these easy-to-read gauges (as well as others) to provide a quick-guide for our readers, with periodic analysis when necessary. Our monthly updates in this blog section include several market psychology related gauges, including the S&P 500 Fear & Greed index updated level, although there will be no commentary, as we dedicate an entire separate weekly blog to that specific indicator. Please take a moment to review the attached figures. 

      ***Please note that this month’s information is somewhat incomplete in the U.S. Economy section, again due to the government shutdown, as not all reports were published.  

      In the last edition, covering October of 2025, we noted a solid 2.3% gain in the S&P 500, following an atypical increase the prior month, again despite the sustained negative tone to many economic indicators. The month was volatile, as expected, but continued to be powered by the leading MAG7 stocks. The Federal Reserve cut interest rates by 0.25% for the 2nd consecutive month, which was another catalyst for the gains. 

      This month we focus on some market internals, mainly the major index’ moving average figures that we consistently document in our Fear & Greed Index weekly update. The internals moved down consistently during the first 3 weeks of this month, as the negative market internals finally began influencing the major indexes. However, during the holiday-shortened final week of the month, there was a positive reversal in the Index of Percentage Highs (reflected in the chart above). November, the most favorable month of the year for equities over the past few decades, somehow finished with a 9-point gain (0.0013%) in the S&P 500, despite the sustained pullback through the 20th. All four major indexes surged in the final week, signaling increased strength in the underlying conditions of the market, setting up the possibility of the annual “Santa Claus Rally” in December. 

      “Readings of note” in the month of November included the continuing decline in the long-term 200-day moving averages during the market correction, which were then boosted by the short-term 20 and 50-day MAs over the final week. The important Put to Call Ratio also improved late in the month, signifying a better outlook in the futures markets. Consumer Confidence and Sentiment also took another hit, despite some improvement in retail spending as we approach the holiday season. Real Estate reports were also mixed, as mortgage applications rose due to lowering rates, but construction remained inconsistent. This industry is heavily dependent on interest rates, and stocks have performed well lately as another cut is expected on December 10.   

      Overall, conditions remained volatile for most of November, with the VIX spiking to the high 20’s mid-month, and the large correction in cryptocurrencies, but calmed during the final week. Remember to keep your stop-loss orders mental (not in the system), and keep some cash aside to take advantage of buying opportunities during the upcoming seasonally strong period. Also, short-term investors and traders should beware of any false rallies, as they occur often during volatile market conditions. Gold and Silver also surged in the past week, another indicator of nervous markets. 

***As always, this information is not intended to be financial advice, or any specific buy or sell recommendation, but rather a guide to assist the reader in some further understanding of current economic conditions.