INDICATOR INSIGHTS

Monthly Update

CATEGORY                                                       

Market Sentiment/Risk                          MO. END   CHANGE    LEVEL

Fear & Greed Index (Market sentiment)                   43               -15            Upper Level Fear

VIX (S&P 500 Volatility measure)                          19.8             +2.7            Neutral but rising

MMRI (Risk measured by interest rates)                  240              -16             High risk

U.S. 10yr-bond yield                                                 3.95            -.29             Decrease

Fear & Greed Bitcoin                                                 14                -4              Extreme Fear

CSI (Consumer Sentiment)                                       57.3            +4.4           Rising but still low

U.S. Economy                                               UP/DOWN       LEVEL

LEI (Overall leading indicators)                                  Down             Bearish  (December)

GDP (Gross Domestic Product)                                   Down             Bearish     

ISM/PMI (Producers Manufacturing Index)                Down             Bearish    

CPI/PPI (Consumer & Producer Price Index)          Slight Up          Neutral   Rising    

Personal Income                                                           Down              Neutral   WTE

Consumer Confidence/Retail Spending                   Slight Up          HTE       Still low

Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE)            Slight Up         Bearish           

JOLTS (Unemployment categories)                             Down             Neutral   (December)

ADP (Jobs – non-farm payroll added)                         Down              Bearish         

         (Initial and continued jobless claims)                  Even               Neutral

Transports (Shipping, durable goods orders)       Slight Down        Bearish     

Real Estate (New/existing sales)                          Down             Bearish   16 mo. low  

  (Housing starts/Construction)                                  Slight Up          Neutral             

  (Mortgage demand)                                                  Slight Up          Neutral

Business Activity/CEO Confidence                          Up               Bullish    Large rise

**This section updated on February 27, 2026

**LTE = Lower than expected (bearish) / HTE = Higher than expected (bullish)

***We may not present the most recent numbers (often revised, and unreported in the mainstream media). Actual figures and charts can be found on the internet, including the FRED (Federal Reserve Economic Data) website.

Price Action                                               UP/DOWN        LEVEL

RSI (Relative Price Strength)                                Slight down        Bearish

PCR (Put to Call Ratio – 5 day avg)                       Slight Up          Neutral

ADL (Advance/Decline line)                                   Slight Up           Bullish but declining         

MFI (Money Flow Index)                                       Slight Up           Bullish but declining

Institutional Trading                                                  Selling              Neutral

Commodities                                   MO. END   CHANGE    LEVEL

Gold to Silver Ratio                                  56.3              -1             Favoring Gold

Crude Oil                                                   67.29          +1.55         Bullish

Index Pct of Highs                  20-Day   50-Day   200-Day   LEVEL

OVERALL Markets                         48            50            58          Mixed

DJIA  (Blue Chips)                              47            53             70          Decrease  

S&P 500  (Top 500)                         60           62             66         Mixed

QQQ  (Technology)                            46           43             60          Mixed  

IWM  (Small Caps)                             43            47             60          Decrease

    As introduced in Chapter 3 of our publication When to Buy and When to Sell: Combining Easy Indicators, Charts, and Financial Astrology (available on Amazon), there are several “leading indicators” that go largely unnoticed and under-utilized by the average beginner or intermediate investor. Some of these indicators measure human emotion and market sentiment that often determines shorter term price action, while others uncover the true conditions of the economy, institutional buying and selling, and risk levels. 

     In our monthly “Indicator Insights” blog (first weekend of each month) we report the previous month-end levels (pertaining to the U.S. economy and/or the S&P 500), including several of these easy-to-read gauges to provide a quick-guide for our readers, with periodic analysis when necessary. Our monthly updates in this blog section include several market psychology related gauges, including the S&P 500 Fear & Greed Index, although there will be no commentary, as we dedicate an entire separate weekly blog to that specific indicator. Please take a moment to review the attached figures.

      ***Please note that most U.S. Economy categories are up-to-date, however some continue to produce delayed, or no available data, due to the government shutdown last Fall.  

      In the last edition, covering January of 2026, we noted that the famous January Effect (also discussed in our publication) ended with the S&P 500 posting a modest 1% gain for the month, while the small cap IWM index increased by 4.8%, a good sign for the overall markets. January is often positive, as “new” money is added to pension and retirement funds, however beware the 2nd year of the Presidential Cycle (known as the Mid-Term Election Year), discussed in our 12-27-25 Did You Know? blog by the same name. 

      This month, February, 2026, we focus on decreasing market internals and over-extended gains. As expected, and noted in our weekly Fear & Greed Index blogs, this month is traditionally weak in the equities markets, which has followed suit. Despite solid earnings reports from many leading companies, the markets have slumped of late, after again hitting all-time highs. The first half of the month was consistent, though all indexes have since pulled back with the DJIA, QQQ, and IWM small-caps now flirting with bear market conditions in their shorter-term 20 and 50-day MAs. The second half of the month was more volatile, especially in the tech-heavy Nasdaq, and a cautious approach would be suggested going into March, a typically wishy-washy month. The Chips sector, which we noted usually experiences gains in the latter half February, also developed, but pulled back the final two days of the month after powerhouse Nvidia (NVDA) again easily beat earnings expectations, and provided a very positive outlook. This appears to be a typical “Buy the rumor, Sell the news” scenario, and should recover. 

      Other “readings of note” in the month of February included Business Activity/CEO confidence rebounding after multi-year lows last month, though Consumer confidence/retail spending is now at its lowest in over a decade. New and existing home sales also slumped, as economic woes continue. The last 2 days of the month were also interesting as oil rose and technology declined, with a possible Mid-east conflict brewing.

      As discussed, volatility continued throughout the month, with rising economic uncertainty and increased global tensions. The VIX spiked over the crucial “20” level on several occasions, and closed the month just under that level at 19.8.  The VIX is “mean-reverting,” and often moves in tandem with the Put to Call Ratio. A spike in these gauges is often followed by a rally (reversal) in the markets. Remember to keep stop-loss orders mental (not in the system), and keep some cash aside to take advantage of buying opportunities. Also, short-term investors and traders should beware of any false rallies, as they occur more often during rising volatility.  

      Finally, the metals market has recovered nicely from the massive decline at the end of last month, consistently rising throughout February, and remain attractive buys on pullbacks. 

***As always, this information is not intended to be financial advice, or any specific buy or sell recommendation, but rather a guide to assist the reader in some further understanding of current economic conditions.