INDICATOR INSIGHTS

Monthly Update

CATEGORY                                                       

Market Sentiment/Risk                   MO. END   CHANGE    LEVEL

Fear & Greed Index (Market sentiment)          53               -11            Neutral

VIX (S&P 500 Volatility measure)                 16.2             +0.9          Neutral

MMRI (Risk measured by interest rates)         253               -5             High risk

U.S. 10yr-bond yield                                        4.16             -.07            Decrease

Fear & Greed Bitcoin                                        43                +4             Neutral

CSI (Consumer Sentiment)                              55.1             -3.5            Decrease again

U.S. Economy                                         UP/DOWN       LEVEL

LEI (Overall leading indicators)                      Slight Down       Bearish    *5 straight months

GDP (Gross Domestic Product)                             Up                Bullish     

ISM/PMI (Producers Manufacturing Index)   Slight Down       Bearish    

CPI (Consumer Price Index)                                  Up                 Bearish       

       (Minus Food & Energy)                                  Up                 Bearish

Consumer Confidence/Retail Spending             Down              Bearish     

Personal Consumption Expenditures                  In-Line             Neutral           

JOLTS (Unemployment categories)                  Slight Up          Bullish

ADP (Jobs – non-farm payroll added)                  Down             Bearish         

         (Initial and continued jobless claims)     Slight Down       Bullish

Transports (Shipping, durable goods orders)      Down             Bearish     

Real Estate (New/existing sales)                           Mixed             Neutral    

  (Housing starts/Construction) Slight Down       Bearish

  (Mortgage demand)                                               Up                Bullish    *See comments

Business Activity/CEO Confidence                      Mixed             Neutral   

**This section updated on September 30, 2025

**LTE = Lower than expected (bearish) / HTE = Higher than expected (bullish)

***We may not present the most recent numbers (often revised, and unreported in the mainstream media). Actual figures and charts can be found on the internet, including the FRED (Federal Reserve Economic Data) website.

Price Action                                    UP/DOWN        LEVEL

RSI (Relative Price Strength)                          Up                Bullish

PCR (Put to Call Ratio – 5 day avg)             Even              Neutral

ADL (Advance/Decline line)                    Up               Bullish          

MFI (Money Flow Index)                                 Up                Bullish

Institutional Trading                                 Mild Selling        Bearish – but slowing

Commodities                            MO. END   CHANGE    LEVEL

Gold to Silver Ratio                          82.6             -4.0           Neutral

Crude Oil                                          62.02           -1.99          Decrease 

** Effective January 2025, we have now added another category revealing the 20, 50, and 200-day percentage of stocks reaching cycle highs for the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA), S&P 500 (SPY), Nasdaq Composite (QQQ) and Russell 2000 Small Cap Index (IWM), with periodic commentary.

Index Pct of Highs        20-Day   50-Day   200-Day   Level

OVERALL Markets              46           55              59         Decreased

DJIA  (Blue Chips)                   53           57              67          Bullish but decreased

S&P 500  (Top 500)              57          57              64         Bullish but decreased

QQQ  (Technology)                47           56             64         Mixed – Decreased  

IWM  (Small Caps)             41           55              60          Bullish but decreased                                                                                                                                         

    As introduced in Chapter 3 of our publication When to Buy and When to Sell: Combining Easy Indicators, Charts, and Financial Astrology (available on Amazon), there are several “leading indicators” that go largely unnoticed and under-utilized by the average beginner or intermediate investor. Some of these indicators measure human emotion and market sentiment that often determines shorter term price action, while others uncover the true conditions of the economy, institutional buying and selling, and risk levels. 

     In our monthly “Indicator Insights” blog (first weekend of each month) we report the previous month-end levels (pertaining to the U.S. economy and/or the S&P 500) regarding several of these easy-to-read gauges (as well as others) to provide a quick-guide for our readers, with periodic analysis when necessary. Our monthly updates in this blog section include several market psychology related gauges, including the S&P 500 Fear & Greed index updated level, although there will be no commentary, as we dedicate an entire separate weekly blog to that specific indicator. Please take a moment to review the attached figures. 

      In the last edition, covering August of 2025, we noted a solid 1.9% gain in the S&P 500 in a seasonally weak period, despite the sustained negative tone to many economic indicators. The month of August is usually met with a low volume pullback in equities after a normally strong July, leading into the traditionally weakest month of the year - September. However, for the 2nd straight year, September did not see a significant pullback, and the S&P 500 actually gained 3.5%, though it was volatile. Economic indicators were mixed throughout the month, as were market “internals,” though the Federal Reserve did finally cut interest rates by 0.25% during their meeting on September 16/17, which was a major catalyst for the gains. 

      This month we focus on the major Index internals that we consistently document in our Fear & Greed Index weekly update. While there was a positive change in the Index of Percentage Highs (reflected in the chart above), in August, that trend reversed in the month of September. All four major indexes showed a decline, signaling weakness in the underlying conditions of the market. The MAG7 stocks resumed their leading role, however, again carrying markets to new all-time highs. This was reflected in the Advance/Decline line and the Money Flow Index both advancing (despite a few bumps along the way), and a major slowdown in insider selling from the middle of the month to the end. The market does remain volatile, however, until the wealth is again shared by a higher percentage of stocks.  

      “Readings of note” in the month of September included more mixed economic reports, including mortgage demand, which was very deceptive. Most of the “demand” consisted of re-finances, not new applications, which were essentially flat. The re-finances were a direct result of the Fed’s cut in interest rates, as property owners search for relief. Many real estate websites and professionals skew the numbers while attempting to create demand, and these reports often do not tell the entire story, as we continuously repeat in our blogs.   

      Overall, conditions remain tricky for the time being, and a cautious approach is warranted as we enter the “tricky” month of October, at least until the internals improve. Remember to keep your stop-loss orders mental (not in the system), and keep some cash aside to take advantage of buying opportunities (in either direction), during this seasonally weak period. Also, short-term investors and traders should beware of any false rallies, as they occur often during volatile market conditions.  

***As always, this information is not intended to be financial advice, or any specific buy or sell recommendation, but rather a guide to assist the reader in some further understanding of current economic conditions.