FEAR & GREED INDEX 53
Weekly Update
The Fear & Greed Index (found on cnn.com) is one of the easiest indicators to use to determine current market emotion. This simple to read gauge, highlighted in our publication When to Buy and When to Sell: Combining Easy Indicators, Charts, and Financial Astrology (available on Amazon), is measured in a range from 0-100, and currently reads 53 as of the close on Friday, September 26, 2025.
This figure returned to the Upper Neutral level, after falling 9 points from last week’s close of 62. This was reflected in the S&P 500, which declined about 20 points, from 6,663 to 6,643, after Friday’s positive reversal. The 4 major indexes, which include the S&P 500, Nasdaq, Dow Jones Industrial, and Russell 2000 (small cap index), remain in bullish territory (when over 50% of their components continue to trade over their 200-day moving averages), though all have been declining. Each index is now in the 59-63% range, and all are suddenly below 45% regarding their shorter-term 20-day MAs. The MAG7’s became stronger again vs the broad market this week, which is currently protecting the market from a correction.
The “Risk-On” sentiment was rather neutral this week while mixed economic news was reported, and the 10-year bond yields rose slightly, closing at 4.17% this week, versus last week’s close at 4.13%.
The 7 internal factors used to formulate this gauge are listed on the screen (below):
Market Momentum – (S&P 500 vs its 125-day moving avg) = NEUTRAL
Market Volatility (measured by the VIX) = NEUTRAL
Put to Call Ratio 5-day avg. (# of Puts (bearish) vs Calls (bullish) = GREED
Stock Price Strength (# of new 52-week highs vs new 52-week lows) = GREED
Stock Price Breadth (# of shares rising vs falling on NYSE) = NEUTRAL
Safe-Haven Demand (which measures stocks vs bonds) = NEUTRAL
Junk Bond Demand (non-govt. bond yield spread) = FEAR
This week, 3 of these 7 factors changed levels as the Greed sentiment somewhat neutralized, with Market Momentum and Stock Price Strength slowing. The only other change was the Put to Call Ratio, which slipped from Extreme Greed to Greed as it started to revert from the last couple of weeks.
The VIX, measured by Market Volatility, remains in Neutral territory, finishing this week unchanged at 15.4. This was not very indicative of the volatile week, but does indicate that there is no current panic with the lower market internals. The “20” level on the VIX is often considered a crucial level, as anything under 20 suggests calm markets, and anything over reflects more uncertainty and/or nervousness among investors and traders. As we make our way through September and into October this coming week, a stronger seasonal period is on the horizon. Keep in mind that Quarter-end Window Dressing (also explained in our publication), which often occurs near the end of March, June, September, and December, may boost stocks this coming week.
This week’s news concentrated on a main inflation gauge known as the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE), which reported results in-line with expectations, and no further increase in inflation. This solidified the Fed’s recent rate reduction, and the potential for further cuts this year.
This week’s economic data was again mixed, with new home sales, jobless claims, durable goods orders, personal spending, and GDP (revisions) improving, while global and domestic manufacturing, existing home sales, business activity, and consumer sentiment declined slightly. As we have been repeating for quite some time, the underlying state of the economy has not been strong, despite some periodic positive announcements and stock market highs.
Astrologically, we have now entered Libra season (Sept 23 – Oct 22). Please see our recent Sign Language – Libra blog, dated 9-5-25 for full details. Virgo’s perfection seeking energies in a seasonally weak period in the equity markets did result in the punishment of stocks who missed earnings expectations, did not provide a highly positive forward-looking statement, and/or were over-valued compared to normal industry standards, as expected. Libra is generally much more forgiving though its indecisive nature can symbolize non-directional price movement.
The planet Mercury continues to travel through the sign of Libra (Sept 18 – Oct 6), symbolizing better communication and fairness between world leaders and better global market balance. This transit occurred on the day following the Fed’s announcement to reduce interest rates, as the true economic conditions were finally reported.
With the planet Venus’ transit through the sign of Virgo since last Friday, Sept 19 (lasting through Oct 13), the suggested harsher judgment and “reality check” for companies and countries who do not live up to expectations has currently been reflected. Virgo normally keeps Venus in check, signifying some increased volatility and pullbacks from extended highs.
The planet Mars ingress to the sign of Scorpio occurred this past Monday, September 22 (lasting through Nov 4), and signifies more fireworks (aggression) and volatility, which so far has proven correct. Please review our Trader Transits - Mars in Scorpio blog, dated 9-13-25, for further details.
Leading sectors, with over 50% of stocks trading over their 200-MAs, continue to include Communications Services, Utilities, Consumer Discretionary, and now Energy (which had a major surge this week), all over 73%, while Consumer Staples, Health Care, and Real Estate continue to lag (though the latter keeps improving). In the long run, sectors of the technology industry that are likely to continue their advance into the future include AI, robotics, quantum computing, and space development (with Pluto positioned in Aquarius, and Uranus in Gemini for many years to come).
Gold (ruled by the Sun), and Silver (ruled by the Moon), declined for the first half of the week, then surged again late week, continuing the belief that they are favorable buys during temporary pullbacks. The Gold to Silver Ratio (covered in our publication), dropped this week, as silver continued to surge at a higher rate than gold, closing at 81.5, down from last week’s close of 85.4 (level since mid-December). Copper resumed its rally also, after a brief dip, and has remained in a solid uptrend since April.
***As always, this information is not intended to be financial advice, or any specific buy or sell recommendation, but rather a guide to assist the reader in some further understanding of current economic conditions/movements in the sky, and how they can affect moods, behaviors, world events, and financial markets.
