INDICATOR INSIGHTS

Monthly Update

CATEGORY                                                       

Market Sentiment/Risk                   MO. END   CHANGE    LEVEL

Fear & Greed Index (Market sentiment)           35               -18             Fear

VIX (S&P 500 Volatility measure)                17.4             +1.2            Neutral

MMRI (Risk measured by interest rates)        253             Even          High risk

U.S. 10yr-bond yield                                        4.08             -.08           Decrease

Fear & Greed Bitcoin                                        33                -10            Fear

CSI (Consumer Sentiment)                          53.6             -1.5            Decreased again

U.S. Economy                                        UP/DOWN       LEVEL

LEI (Overall leading indicators)                       NO DATA            N/A

GDP (Gross Domestic Product)                         NO DATA            N/A     

ISM/PMI (Producers Manufacture Index) Slight Down       Bearish    

CPI (Consumer Price Index)                            Slight Down        Bullish       

       (Minus Food & Energy)                            Slight Down        Bullish

Consumer Confidence/Retail Spending      Slight Down     Bearish     

Personal Consumption Expenditures                 NO DATA           N/A           

JOLTS (Unemployment categories)                  NO DATA           N/A

ADP (Jobs – non-farm payroll added)               NO DATA           N/A         

         (Initial and continued jobless claims)      NO DATA           N/A

Transports (Shipping, durable goods orders)       Down              Bearish     

Real Estate (New/existing sales)                      NO DATA          N/A   

  (Housing starts/Construction)                         DOWN            Bearish

  (Mortgage demand)                                             Up                Signs of recovering

Business Activity/CEO Confidence                    Mixed              Neutral   

**This section updated on October 31, 2025

**LTE = Lower than expected (bearish) / HTE = Higher than expected (bullish)

***We may not present the most recent numbers (often revised, and unreported in the mainstream media). Actual figures and charts can be found on the internet, including the FRED (Federal Reserve Economic Data) website.

Price Action                                    UP/DOWN        LEVEL

RSI (Relative Price Strength)                        Down              Bearish - Volatile

PCR (Put to Call Ratio – 5 day avg)       Even              Neutral

ADL (Advance/Decline line)                            Up                 Bullish          

MFI (Money Flow Index)                                 Up                 Bullish but pulling back

Institutional Trading                                  Mild Selling         Bearish – but slowing

Commodities                           MO. END   CHANGE    LEVEL

Gold to Silver Ratio                          82.1             -0.5           Neutral

Crude Oil                                          60.88           -1.14          Decrease

** Effective January 2025, we have now added another category revealing the 20, 50, and 200-day percentage of stocks reaching cycle highs for the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA), S&P 500 (SPY), Nasdaq Composite (QQQ) and Russell 2000 Small Cap Index (IWM), with periodic commentary.

Index Pct of Highs        20-Day   50-Day   200-Day   Level

OVERALL Markets              39           41             54          Mixed - decreased

DJIA  (Blue Chips)                   53           57              63          Bullish but decreased

S&P 500  (Top 500)              38          40              53          Mixed - decreased

QQQ  (Technology)                43           46              59          Mixed - decreased  

IWM  (Small Caps)                  39          39              54         Mixed - decreased

    As introduced in Chapter 3 of our publication When to Buy and When to Sell: Combining Easy Indicators, Charts, and Financial Astrology (available on Amazon), there are several “leading indicators” that go largely unnoticed and under-utilized by the average beginner or intermediate investor. Some of these indicators measure human emotion and market sentiment that often determines shorter term price action, while others uncover the true conditions of the economy, institutional buying and selling, and risk levels.

     In our monthly “Indicator Insights” blog (first weekend of each month) we report the previous month-end levels (pertaining to the U.S. economy and/or the S&P 500) regarding several of these easy-to-read gauges (as well as others) to provide a quick-guide for our readers, with periodic analysis when necessary. Our monthly updates in this blog section include several market psychology related gauges, including the S&P 500 Fear & Greed index updated level, although there will be no commentary, as we dedicate an entire separate weekly blog to that specific indicator. Please take a moment to review the attached figures.

      ***Please note that this month’s information is incomplete in the U.S. Economy section, due to the government shutdown, as not all reports were published. Those in bold are up-to-date figures, while the others are not.

      In the last edition, covering September of 2025, we noted a solid 3.5% gain in the S&P 500, atypical of that month for the 2nd straight year, despite the sustained negative tone to many economic indicators. The month was volatile, as expected, but was powered by the leading MAG7 stocks. September did not see a significant pullback, but again finished with an impressive gain that was not broad-based. The Federal Reserve did finally cut interest rates by 0.25% during their meeting on September 16/17, which was another catalyst for the gains.

      This month we focus on some market internals, mainly the major index’ moving average figures that we consistently document in our Fear & Greed Index weekly update. While there was a negative reversal in the Index of Percentage Highs (reflected in the chart above), in September, that trend reversed again, twice, in the “tricky” month of October, though another 2.3% gain in the S&P 500 was booked. All four major indexes initially showed improvement, signaling increased strength in the underlying conditions of the market, then reversed again over the last week or so, revealing more weakness than it appeared. The MAG7 stocks resumed their leading role, however, again carrying markets to new all-time highs. This was reflected in the 152-point gain in the S&P, though the number of rising stocks fell vs falling stocks.

      “Readings of note” in the month of October included the continuing decline in the long-term 200-day moving averages, affected heavily by the short-term 20 and 50-day MAs. Consumer Confidence and Sentiment also took another hit as we approach the holiday season, where retailers make most of their profit over the last two months of the year. Cyclical investors and traders should watch closely for a potentially less profitable season. Finally, available Real Estate reports were mixed, as mortgage applications rose due to lowering rates, but construction slowed heavily, which has been reflected in the slump in homebuilder stocks over the past 2 months.

      Overall, conditions remained volatile for most of October, with the back-and-forth price action and weakening fundamentals. Remember to keep your stop-loss orders mental (not in the system), and keep some cash aside to take advantage of buying opportunities during the upcoming seasonally strong period. Also, short-term investors and traders should beware of any false rallies, as they occur often during volatile market conditions.  

***As always, this information is not intended to be financial advice, or any specific buy or sell recommendation, but rather a guide to assist the reader in some further understanding of current economic conditions.