FEAR & GREED INDEX 35
Weekly Update
The Fear & Greed Index (found on cnn.com) is one of the easiest indicators to use to determine current market emotion. This simple to read gauge, highlighted in our publication When to Buy and When to Sell: Combining Easy Indicators, Charts, and Financial Astrology (available on Amazon), is measured in a range from 0-100, and currently reads 35 as of the close on Friday, October 31, 2025.
This figure remained in the Lower Fear level this week, after rising 2 points from last week’s close of 33. This was reflected in the S&P 500, as it gained about 49 points, from 6,791 to 6,840, fueled by gains on Monday, a carry-over from late last week. The 4 major indexes, which include the S&P 500, Nasdaq, Dow Jones Industrial, and Russell 2000 (small cap index), have lost their internal bullish momentum (when over 50% of their components continue to trade over their 200-day moving averages), once again, with the leading DJIA now only at 63%, down from last week’s 77%. Each index’ shorter-term 20 and 50-day MAs have also continued to fall, with most now in the 30’s-40’s% range, except the DJIA, which is barely over 50%. The MAGS continue to lead again in this narrowing market, as we enter a traditionally strong season. Though November has been the most favorable month over the past few decades, be cautious with these weak internals. This month will be critical this year, with markets at all-time highs, a positive September and October, and December as a month where fund managers alter there portfolios to buy leading stocks.
The “Risk-On” sentiment resumed on Monday morning where it left off last week, boosted by earnings and the MAG7, and basically evened out the rest of the week. 10-year bond yields rose slightly, closing the week at 4.08% vs last week’s close of 4%, as the Federal Reserve announced their expected 0.25 basis point rate cut, but were not convinced they would lower again in December.
The 7 internal factors used to formulate this gauge are listed on the screen (below):
Market Momentum – (S&P 500 vs its 125-day moving avg) = GREED
Market Volatility (measured by the VIX) = NEUTRAL
Put to Call Ratio 5-day avg. (# of Puts (bearish) vs Calls (bullish) = NEUTRAL
Stock Price Strength (# of new 52-week highs vs new 52-week lows) = FEAR
Stock Price Breadth (# of shares rising vs falling on NYSE) = EXTREME FEAR
Safe-Haven Demand (which measures stocks vs bonds) = EXTREME FEAR
Junk Bond Demand (non-govt. bond yield spread) = EXTREME FEAR
This week only 1 of these 7 factors changed levels, the Put to Call Ratio, which rose from Fear to Neutral. The ratio has been fluctuating more than normal with the recent uncertainty in the market and global conditions, however, currently sits in a position where bulls and bears are more evenly spread.
The VIX, measured by Market Volatility, rose slightly, closing at 17.4, vs. last week’s close of 16.4, remaining well below the crucial “20” level that we have mentioned weekly over the past few months. The markets were “tricky” again this week, consistent with our statements over the last few weeks about the history of October, but still managed slight gains.
Many of the scheduled economic data reports have been delayed due to the continued government shutdown, giving an incomplete look at the current conditions. Those reported included Consumer Sentiment and Manufacturing, which were down but better than expected.
Astrologically, we have settled into Scorpio season (Oct 23 – Nov 22), one of the most powerful signs of the zodiac (Please see our recent Sign Language – Scorpio blog, dated 10-4-25 for full details. As noted, Scorpio is ruled by the planet Mars (which also rules Aries), signifying strong, aggressive, no-nonsense energies, suggesting sharper price moves with continued volatility.
The planet Mercury has now moved into the sign of Sagittarius, a sign of optimism. The Mars (ruler of Scorpio) aggressive and confrontational energies, which were signified with more global conflict and verbal sparring, should improve, though the next Mercury Retrograde (beginning November 9) symbolizes another volatility uptick in the markets. This coming retrograde will include a brief return to Scorpio by Mercury, briefly re-visiting the sharp-tongued comments that could cause emotionally charged market reactions.
With the planet Venus’ now transiting one of its “home” signs, Libra, love, balance, and fairness are signified (which can result in some calmness in the markets), as we head into a favorable time of year. Venus will remain in Libra until Nov 5, before it also enters the sign of Scorpio, where it will briefly be joined by Mercury, during its retrograde.
The planet Mars, however, also remains in the sign of Scorpio (one of its “home” signs), for a few more days (through Nov 4), signifying more fireworks (aggression) and volatility, which so far has proven correct. Please review our Trader Transits - Mars in Scorpio blog, dated 9-13-25, for further details. As noted above, Mars’ energies are very strong as it passes through its “home” sign of Scorpio, which has resulted in a divergent market, despite all-time highs, so be cautious with position size. With any luck, Venus taking over as Mars leaves Scorpio could signify less volatility.
Finaly, the planet Uranus, which is currently in retrograde until early February, will regress to the sign of Taurus, this coming Thursday, November 7, and will not return to Gemini until April, 2026. This 6-month re-visit to the sign of money (ruled by Venus), could create more shocks to the markets, so beware. Please review our Planet Power – Uranus Retrograde blog, dated 8-27-25 for further details.
All four planets will change signs over the next week, which could result in some unsettling price action as we head into the traditionally strong season, and the best month for stocks (November) over the past few decades.
Leading sectors, with over 50% of stocks trading over their 200-MAs, continue to be led by Utilities, now down to 87% (100% last week), though the sector did decline the past few days. Utilities are reflective of uncertain/volatile times, as they are considered “safe” investments, which tend to decline when “Risk-On” sentiment returns. We have warned over the past two weeks that these readings on Utilities were at historically high levels and were due for a pullback, at least in the intermediate term. Info-Tech, Healthcare, and Industrials have been much stronger the past two weeks, indicating defensive stocks still lead, but a little more Risk-On has been present with the drop in Utilities. In the long run, sectors of the technology industry that are likely to continue their advance into the future include AI, robotics, quantum computing (all of which surged late week), and space development (with Pluto positioned in Aquarius, and Uranus in Gemini for many years to come).
Gold (ruled by the Sun), and Silver (ruled by the Moon), both had a positive week, after last week’s plunge. As noted, the pullback was overdue from extended conditions/all-time highs. The Gold to Silver Ratio (covered in our publication), declined this week, closing at 82.1, compared to last week’s close of 84.5, but remains neutral. Copper followed the same pattern this week, and is likely to resume its bullishness. All remain good buys after pullbacks in the current economic conditions.
***As always, this information is not intended to be financial advice, or any specific buy or sell recommendation, but rather a guide to assist the reader in some further understanding of current economic conditions/movements in the sky, and how they can affect moods, behaviors, world events, and financial markets.
