FEAR & GREED INDEX 11
Monthly Update
The Fear & Greed Index (found on cnn.com) is one of the easiest indicators to use to determine current market emotion. This simple to read gauge, highlighted in our publication When to Buy and When to Sell: Combining Easy Indicators, Charts, and Financial Astrology (available on Amazon), is measured in a range from 0-100, and currently reads 11 as of the close on Friday, November 21, 2025 (after reaching a low of 8 on Thursday).
This figure moved further into the Extreme Fear level this week, after dropping 11 points from last week’s close of 22, after another wild week on Wall Street. This was reflected in the S&P 500, as it dropped 132 points, from 6,734 to 6,602, after a moderate rally of Friday. The gauge now sits at levels equal to the first week of April, which ended the last significant pullback, consistent with the theory behind the reading. Though there is never a set time frame or guarantee for a bounce, this extreme low level does suggest a rally in the near future.
The 4 major indexes (S&P 500, Nasdaq, Dow Jones Industrial, and Russell 2000), are barely hanging on to their internal bullish 200-day moving averages, with most just over 50%, and the leading DJIA now at 60%, a decrease from last week’s 63%, as technology stocks again took the hardest hit this week. Each index’ shorter-term 20 and 50-day MAs remain very low, well under 50%, with the Nasdaq at the lowest. Though November has been the most favorable month over the past few decades, caution was suggested the last few weeks with these weak internals. The unusual market highs in September and October, have given way to unusual struggles this month, leading into December, a month where fund managers alter their portfolios to buy leading stocks.
The “Risk-Off” sentiment continue for most of this week in this wishy-washy market, with the lack of Fed data. 10-year bond yields fell slightly, closing the week at 4.07% vs last week’s close of 4.15%, as the largely expected rate cut in December is now in question.
The 7 internal factors used to formulate this gauge are listed on the screen (below):
Market Momentum – (S&P 500 vs its 125-day moving avg) = EXTREME FEAR
Market Volatility (measured by the VIX) = FEAR
Put to Call Ratio 5-day avg. (# of Puts (bearish) vs Calls (bullish) = EXTREME FEAR
Stock Price Strength (# of new 52-week highs vs new 52-week lows) = EXTREME FEAR
Stock Price Breadth (# of shares rising vs falling on NYSE) = EXTREME FEAR
Safe-Haven Demand (which measures stocks vs bonds) = EXTREME FEAR
Junk Bond Demand (non-govt. bond yield spread) = EXTREME FEAR
This week 2 of these 7 factors changed levels, as Market Momentum joined 5 others at the Extreme Fear level. This is no surprise as it matches the overall gauge, with the sharp market drop, indicating investors were searching for safety. The VIX also finally succumbed to the pressure, falling to Fear from Neutral.
The VIX, measured by Market Volatility, spiked again, to over 27 on Thursday, closing the week at 23.4, vs. last week’s close of 19.8. The crucial “20” level, was pierced again, where the gauge spent most of the week, suggesting increased nervousness and uncertainty among traders and investors.
The big news this week was the quarterly earnings announcement from tech giant NVIDIA. Once again, the company reported much better than expected results, with very positive forward guidance. The initial reaction was a major rally Thursday morning, however, that lasted only a few hours before another major pullback, as the market remains very uncertain about interest rates and economic conditions. Earnings have been mainly positive, however, with 3rd quarter growth of over 14% (when it was estimated around 7.2%), though layoffs, at record highs, continue to weigh on the economy.
As recently noted, equities markets have fared well historically following a government shutdown, as they have been higher in the short (1-month), intermediate (3-month) and longer-term (1-year) on 20 of 22 instances (91%) in the past 5 decades. Please see our recent Financial Focus – The Shutdown blog, dated 10-21-25, for further details. In the short-term, beware continued volatility due to the economic uncertainty created by the record length of the shutdown.
Astrologically, Scorpio season (Oct 23 – Nov 22), has now given away to Sagittarius season (Nov 23 – Dec 21), which is ruled by Jupiter. Please see our recent Sign Language – Sagittarius blog, dated 11-4-25 for full details). The Scorpio/Mars energies will now be replaced by the Sagittarius/Jupiter optimism and expansion, which usually results in a favorable market.
However, the planet Mercury continues its retrograde period from Nov 9 – Nov 29. As we warned since last month, Mercury Retrograde historically results in a market pullback, or at least added volatility, which has clearly been the case once again. This retrograde will also include a brief return to Scorpio by Mercury, re-visiting conflicting economic comments that could cause emotionally charged reactions, usually reflected in global markets.
The planet Venus also remains in the sign of Scorpio (Nov 6 – Nov 26), which is not very favorable for love and balance, where it will briefly be joined by Mercury, during its retrograde.
The planet Mars has also settled into the sign of Sagittarius (Nov 4 – Dec 14), theoretically reducing aggression and volatility. As previously noted, Mars’ energies were very strong as it passed through its “home” sign of Scorpio, which resulted in divergent markets, despite all-time highs. Mars in Sagittarius combined with the Mercury Retrograde could continue the unsettled emotion regarding current market fear.
The planet Jupiter also turned retrograde (in the sign of Cancer) on Tuesday, November 11 (continuing until March 11). As previously discussed, Jupiter has very powerful expansive energies, which may weaken a bit for the time being.
Finally, the planet Uranus, which is currently in retrograde until early February, regressed from the sign of Gemini to the sign of Taurus (money), on Thursday, November 7, and will not return to Gemini until April, 2026. This 6-month re-visit to the sign of money (ruled by Venus), could create more shocks to the markets, so beware. Please review our Planet Power – Uranus Retrograde blog, dated 8-27-25 for further details.
All these planets (except Jupiter) recently changed signs over a week’s time, predictably resulting in some unsettling price action. The first 3 weeks of November (the best month for stocks over the past few decades), has been very erratic as the government shutdown added to the uncertainty.
Leading sectors, with over 50% of stocks trading over their 200-MAs, continue to be led by Utilities, though now only at 74% (down from 87% last week). after a brief drop. Healthcare has actually been the strongest of late, with Energy also rising. Real Estate and Basic Materials remain very weak with the negative economic conditions. In the long run, sectors of the technology industry that are likely to continue their advance into the future include AI, robotics, quantum computing and space development (with Pluto positioned in Aquarius, and Uranus in Gemini for many years to come), but will experience pullbacks along the way.
Gold (ruled by the Sun), and Silver (ruled by the Moon), closed lower this week with the market gyrations, stronger dollar, and interest rate uncertainty. The Gold to Silver Ratio (covered in our publication), rose slightly this week, closing at 81.2, compared to last week’s close of 80.7, but remains neutral. Both remain good buys after pullbacks in the current economic conditions, as central banks continue to buy. Bitcoin (ruled by Uranus) steadily decreased all week, in lock-step with the Uranus retrograde back into Taurus.
***As always, this information is not intended to be financial advice, or any specific buy or sell recommendation, but rather a guide to assist the reader in some further understanding of current economic conditions/movements in the sky, and how they can affect moods, behaviors, world events, and financial markets.
