FEAR & GREED INDEX 21
Weekly Update
The Fear & Greed Index (found on cnn.com) is one of the easiest indicators to use to determine current market emotion. This simple to read gauge, highlighted in our publication When to Buy and When to Sell: Combining Easy Indicators, Charts, and Financial Astrology (available on Amazon), is measured in a range from 0-100, and currently reads 21 as of the close on Friday, November 7, 2025.
This figure now sits in the Upper Extreme Fear level this week, after decreasing 14 points from last week’s close of 35. This was reflected in the S&P 500, as it declined about 112 points, from 6,840 to 6,728, despite a massive rally Friday afternoon. The 4 major indexes (S&P 500, Nasdaq, Dow Jones Industrial, and Russell 2000), are barely hanging onto their internal bullish 200-day moving averages, once again, with the leading DJIA now only at 60%, down from last week’s 63%. Each index’ shorter-term 20 and 50-day MAs have cratered over the past week or so, with most now in the 30’s-40’s% range, except the DJIA, which is barely over 50%. The MAGS also reversed this week, succumbing to the pressure of the overall market weakness, despite many earnings reports beating estimates. Though November has been the most favorable month over the past few decades, caution was suggested last week with the weak internals. This month will be critical this year, with markets recently at all-time highs, a positive September and October, and December as a month where fund managers alter their portfolios to buy leading stocks. A further decline in this index, however, may suggest a reversal, as it usually does.
The “Risk-On” sentiment declined all week, until a sudden reversal on Friday afternoon. 10-year bond yields were basically unchanged, closing the week at 4.09% vs last week’s close of 4.08%, as the largely expected rate cut in December wavers back and forth.
The 7 internal factors used to formulate this gauge are listed on the screen (below):
Market Momentum – (S&P 500 vs its 125-day moving avg) = FEAR
Market Volatility (measured by the VIX) = NEUTRAL
Put to Call Ratio 5-day avg. (# of Puts (bearish) vs Calls (bullish) = EXTREME FEAR
Stock Price Strength (# of new 52-week highs vs new 52-week lows) = EXTREME FEAR
Stock Price Breadth (# of shares rising vs falling on NYSE) = EXTREME FEAR
Safe-Haven Demand (which measures stocks vs bonds) = FEAR
Junk Bond Demand (non-govt. bond yield spread) = EXTREME FEAR
This week 4 of these 7 factors changed levels, led by the Put to Call Ratio, and Stock Price Breadth which fell to Extreme Fear, joining the other categories in Fear sentiment. The ratio has been fluctuating more than normal with the recent uncertainty in the market and global conditions.
The VIX, measured by Market Volatility, spiked to the crucial level of 20 a few times during the week, and almost reached 22 on Friday, before plunging to close at 19.1, vs. last week’s close of 17.4. The crucial “20” level, that we have mentioned weekly over the past few months, was pierced on four separate days this week, as markets were very skittish to say the least.
Many of the scheduled economic data reports continue to be delayed due to the prolonged government shutdown, giving an incomplete look at current conditions. The equities market finally started to pay more attention to this issue, as less information caused concern. Those reported included Manufacturing and Consumer Sentiment, which both declined. Earnings, however, have been mainly positive, with 3rd quarter growth of over 14%, when it was expected to only come in around 7.2%. However, the largest number of layoffs in one month for several years was reported at 153,000.
Astrologically, Scorpio season (Oct 23 – Nov 22), continues for one of the most powerful signs of the zodiac (Please see our recent Sign Language – Scorpio blog, dated 10-4-25 for full details). As noted, Scorpio is ruled by the planet Mars (which also rules Aries), signifying strong, aggressive, no-nonsense energies, suggesting sharper price moves with continued volatility.
The planet Mercury is now transiting the sign of Sagittarius, a sign of optimism. The Mars (ruler of Scorpio) aggressive and confrontational energies, which were signified with more global conflict and verbal sparring, should improve, though the next Mercury Retrograde begins today (November 9). Mercury Retrograde historically results in a market pullback (which began a few days early in the “shadow” period), or at the very least symbolizes another volatility uptick. This coming retrograde will include a brief return to Scorpio by Mercury, briefly re-visiting the sharp-tongued comments that could cause emotionally charged market reactions.
The planet Venus has now moved out of one of its “home” signs, Libra, signifying love, balance, and fairness (symbolizing calmer markets) and has entered the sign of Scorpio, where it will briefly be joined by Mercury, during its retrograde.
The planet Mars also left the sign of Scorpio (one of its “home” signs), on Monday, November 4, which could eventually signify reduced aggression and volatility. As previously noted, Mars’ energies were very strong as it passed through its “home” sign of Scorpio, which resulted in divergent markets, despite all-time highs. With any luck, Venus taking over as Mars leaves Scorpio could signify less volatility.
Finally, the planet Uranus, which is currently in retrograde until early February, regressed from the sign of Gemini to the sign of Taurus (money), on Thursday, November 7, and will not return to Gemini until April, 2026. This 6-month re-visit to the sign of money (ruled by Venus), could create more shocks to the markets, so beware. Please review our Planet Power – Uranus Retrograde blog, dated 8-27-25 for further details.
All four planets changed signs over a week’s time, which could result in some unsettling price action this week as we head into a traditionally strong season, and the best month for stocks (November) over the past few decades.
Leading sectors, with over 50% of stocks trading over their 200-MAs, continue to be led by Utilities, now holding steady around 90% (up from 87% last week), after a brief drop. Utilities are reflective of uncertain/volatile times, as they are considered “safe” investments, which tend to decline when “Risk-On” sentiment returns. We had warned over the past two weeks that these readings on Utilities were at historically high levels and were due for a pullback, at least in the intermediate term. Energy, Healthcare, and Industrials have been much stronger the past two weeks, indicating defensive stocks are favored, however the major rally Friday afternoon has skewed the numbers for the time being. In the long run, sectors of the technology industry that are likely to continue their advance into the future include AI, robotics, quantum computing (all of which surged late week), and space development (with Pluto positioned in Aquarius, and Uranus in Gemini for many years to come).
Gold (ruled by the Sun), and Silver (ruled by the Moon), dipped early in the week, but leveled off. As noted, the pullback was overdue from extended conditions/all-time highs. The Gold to Silver Ratio (covered in our publication), rose slightly this week, closing at 82.7, compared to last week’s close of 82.1, but remains neutral. Copper followed the same pattern this week, and is likely to resume its bullishness. All remain good buys after pullbacks in the current economic conditions as central banks continue to buy.
***As always, this information is not intended to be financial advice, or any specific buy or sell recommendation, but rather a guide to assist the reader in some further understanding of current economic conditions/movements in the sky, and how they can affect moods, behaviors, world events, and financial markets.
