FEAR & GREED INDEX 37
Weekly Update
The Fear & Greed Index (found on cnn.com) is one of the easiest indicators to use to determine current market emotion. This simple to read gauge, highlighted in our publication When to Buy and When to Sell: Combining Easy Indicators, Charts, and Financial Astrology (available on Amazon), is measured in a range from 0-100, and currently reads 37 as of the close on Thursday, June 18, 2026 (markets closed for Friday holiday).
The gauge remains in the mid-Fear category, decreasing 3 points from last week’s close of 34. This was reflected in the S&P 500, which rose 69 points, from 7,431 to 7,500, in another week of expected volatility, including the new Fed Chair’s first FOMC meeting.
The 4 major indexes’ 200-day MAs (Moving Averages) internal sentiment remains in the bullish zone, though the market has cooled off, but also leveled off. The number of stocks making new highs on all indexes remains at 55%, led by the DJIA at 61%, down from last week. The shorter-term 20 and 50-day MAs are starting to waiver, as many have fallen below the 50% mark, indicating a non-directional market.
The “Risk-On” sentiment declined this week, after the Federal Reserve meeting with its new Chairman, and his “hawkish” comments regarding likely rate hikes in the future. 10-yr bond yields dipped slightly, to 4.46%, up from last week’s close of 4.48%, as interest rate policy uncertainty continues. Stagflation, when the economy is slowing and inflation is rising, continues to be a concern, as a rise in interest rates may be on the table. Watch for the approaching period of Quarterly Window Dressing and the Russell Re-Alignment, which we note in our publication and previous blogs.
The 7 internal factors used to formulate this gauge are listed on the screen (below):
Market Momentum – (S&P 500 vs its 125-day moving avg) = GREED
Market Volatility (measured by the VIX) = NEUTRAL
Put to Call Ratio 5-day avg. (# of Puts (bearish) vs Calls (bullish) = FEAR
Stock Price Strength (# of new 52-week highs vs new 52-week lows) = FEAR
Stock Price Breadth (# of shares rising vs falling on NYSE) = EXTREME FEAR
Safe-Haven Demand (which measures stocks vs bonds) = FEAR
Junk Bond Demand (non-govt. bond yield spread) = EXTREME FEAR
This week, none of these 7 factors changed levels, as market internals Stock Price Strength/Breadth remained in Fear levels, divergent with Market Momentum, which remains resiliently in the Greed category. The all-important Put to Call Ratio (used more by short-term traders) leveled off during the week, though it remains in Fear as well.
The VIX, measured by Market Volatility, again moved downward by weeks end, closing 1.3 points lower at 16.4, vs last weeks close of 17.7, after a spike on Wednesday cooled off by the close on Thursday. As we often note, any break-through of the crucial “20” mark suggests a pullback, which last occurred 2 weeks ago.
Energy prices continued to decline this week with improved investor sentiment regarding an end, or at least better conditions, based on the latest “deal” concerning the global military conflict, which helped boost stocks.
Economic data was mixed this week in both the manufacturing and housing industries, while retail sales were better than expected, which would help raise Consumer Discretionary stocks (as mentioned last week) should the trend continue.
Astrologically, Gemini season comes to an end this weekend (June 20), as we move into Cancer season (June 21 – July 21). Gemini season produced the expected volatility, but no significant price move (typical of this season), as the S&P 500 gained less than 1%. Cancer, a water sign, is known for its protective, emotional energies, as well as favorable equities market returns. This may be tempered this year, however, with the next Mercury Retrograde beginning on Monday, June 29, and Jupiter’s departure from the sign on June 30. Please review our Sign Language – Cancer blog, dated 6-8-26 for more details.
Mercury, the planet of trading, is currently transiting the sign of Cancer (remaining for over 2 months until Aug 9), signifying a shift in mood and sentiment. This transit is longer than usual for Mercury, highlighted by its next retrograde, which is often problematic for markets, as it has a history of restricting gains.
The planet Venus, transiting the sign of Leo through July 9, has shifted its energies from “love of the home” stocks and sectors, including cyber-security, and real estate/home improvement (which saw gains) to a more self-centered theme. Venus in Leo highlights fashion and self-pleasing products, signified by the Consumer Discretionary sector, which has been beaten down over the past several months, but has shown improvement (as expected), which would continue along with rising consumer sentiment.
The planet Mars continues its transit through the sign of Taurus through June 28, cooling from its ultra-aggressive energies (in Aries) to more stable conditions. Mars in this sign tends to symbolize a lean toward longer-term plans (investments) rather than quick aggressive action. Mars is not favorable in the earth sign of Taurus, which has tempered the gains in Real Estate. Mars is also approaching a conjunction with the planet Uranus on July 4, which could provide more fireworks (pun intended). Please review our upcoming Trader Transits – Mars conjunct Uranus blog, on June 22, for further details.
As discussed heavily in recent months, Uranus (sudden, unexpected events/high technology) transits the sign of Gemini (communications, transportation) until 2033. Gemini, like Uranus, also represents high intelligence, communications, and technology, signifying major advances in those industries. Uranus’ energies have been on full display of late, with quick, unexpected reversals, and do not be “surprised” if this type of market action continues with Mars approaching Uranus. As earlier noted, the two will form a conjunction on the 4th of July, suggesting high volatility just prior to, and after, that weekend date. Please also review our Trader Transits – Uranus in Gemini blog, dated 3-30-26, for more details.
As mentioned, leading sector Energy nosedived this week with oil’s drop, based on the perception of the status of the military conflict. Consumer Discretionary (as noted above) and Industrials remained steady, though most other sectors dropped. Financials, which is always important for a bullish market, weakened a bit this week. There has been some “sector rotation” after technology’s recent surge, which is better for the market than liquidating to cash or turning to bonds in a “flight-to-quality.”
As we continued to stress, sectors of the technology industry that are likely to continue their advance into the future include AI, robotics, quantum computing, and space development (recent surge), with both Pluto positioned in Aquarius and Uranus in Gemini, for many years to come, though they will experience pullbacks along the way.
Gold (ruled by the Sun), and Silver (ruled by the Moon), were very volatile this week, with interest rate uncertainty, ending slightly up from last week. The Gold to Silver Ratio closed at 64.1, up slightly (2.1 points) from last week’s close of 62, remaining rather neutral. As we continue to stress, both metals remain good buys after pullbacks, so long as central banks continue to buy, and Safe-Haven investments remain popular, which is expected. Bitcoin (ruled by Uranus) continues to struggle, with its Fear & Greed Index holding at 19, remaining in Extreme Fear territory, even with last week’s close of 19. Look for some improvement in the beaten down sector as levels may have reached a buying opportunity.
***As always, this information is not intended to be financial advice, or any specific buy or sell recommendation, but rather a guide to assist the reader in some further understanding of current economic conditions/movements in the sky, and how they can affect moods, behaviors, world events, and financial markets.
