FEAR & GREED INDEX 49
Weekly Update
The Fear & Greed Index (found on cnn.com) is one of the easiest indicators to use to determine current market emotion. This simple to read gauge, highlighted in our publication When to Buy and When to Sell: Combining Easy Indicators, Charts, and Financial Astrology (available on Amazon), is measured in a range from 0-100, and currently reads 49 as of the close on Friday, July 10, 2026.
The gauge moved from Fear to Neutral this week, rising 17 points from last week’s close of 32. This was reflected in the S&P 500, which gained 92 points, from 7,483 to 7,575, despite the diverted, inconsistent market. The bounce from the Extreme Fear level from a couple of weeks ago has developed, as is often the case.
The 4 major indexes’ 200-day MAs (Moving Averages) internal sentiment remains in the bullish zone, with the Dow Jones again hitting an all-time high on Tuesday, before pulling back. The number of stocks making new highs on all indexes now sits at 58% (down from 59% last week), continuing to be led by the DJIA at 70% (down from 77%). The shorter-term 20 and 50-day MAs remain steady, though the interest rate sensitive Russell 20-day weakened a bit. Recent Sector rotation has helped level off the markets in the last few weeks. Chip stocks (hardware) rebounded this week, while Infotech (software) declined as the “AI trade” appears to be more threatening to the software sector.
The “Risk-On” sentiment returned late in the week, after a drop early in the week, in this topsy-turvy market, which is difficult to swing trade. Mixed signals are being sent by the Fed, which keeps the market on edge. 10-yr bond yields edged up again, to 4.56%, from last week’s close of 4.49%, as interest rate policy uncertainty continues. Earnings season begins again soon, with positive projections for the 2nd Quarter.
The 7 internal factors used to formulate this gauge are listed on the screen (below):
Market Momentum – (S&P 500 vs its 125-day moving avg) = GREED
Market Volatility (measured by the VIX) = NEUTRAL
Put to Call Ratio 5-day avg. (# of Puts (bearish) vs Calls (bullish) = GREED
Stock Price Strength (# of new 52-week highs vs new 52-week lows) = FEAR
Stock Price Breadth (# of shares rising vs falling on NYSE) = FEAR
Safe-Haven Demand (which measures stocks vs bonds) = GREED
Junk Bond Demand (non-govt. bond yield spread) = FEAR
This week, 5 of these 7 factors changed levels, as Market Momentum improved for the 2nd straight week, from Neutral to Greed, and Stock Price Breadth edged up from Extreme Fear to Fear. The all-important Put to Call Ratio flipped again, from Fear to Greed, after turning upward again the last two days of the week. Safe-Haven Demand also jumped into the Greed category with the resurgence of the metals in the last few days. As noted, the market is very non-directional, and fragile overall.
The VIX, measured by Market Volatility, closed just about even this week, ending up 0.8 points, at 15.0, vs last weeks close of 15.8. July is normally less volatile than June, due to seasonality, as well as low volume, with many traders and institutions taking summer vacations. As we often note, any break-through of the crucial “20” mark suggests a pullback, so keep an eye on this gauge. The real volatility, however, as we mentioned the last couple of weeks, is in the intraday price movement, which has been erratic, with frequent reversals.
Economic data was light this week, though categories including Manufacturing, Wholesale Inventories, Home Sales, the Trade Deficit, and Consumer Credit were somewhat negative. The big story was the SpaceX (SPCX) addition to both the Nasdaq and the Russell indexes (due to the recently noted new “Fast Entry” rule), though it will not be added to the S&P 500 anytime soon. The FOMC meetings were also mixed with the differing interest rate opinions from the department leaders.
Astrologically, we continue through Cancer season (June 21 – July 21), normally a strong performing period for stocks. Cancer, a water sign, is known for its protective, emotional energies, as well as favorable equities market returns. Please review our Sign Language – Cancer blog, dated 6-8-26 for more details.
Mercury, the planet of trading, is currently transiting the sign of Cancer (remaining for over 2 months until Aug 9), and is in the midst of its 3-week retrograde period, which began on Monday, June 29. As we often note, Mercury Retrograde is historically a time of re-assessment, reversals, retreat, and review, normally coinciding with fluctuations in the markets, usually to the downside. The energies of this retrograde are battling the normally favorable Cancer energies, and though Cancer seems to be winning (for now), the suggested intraday reversal tendencies and emotional reactions, and have been common. Please review our past Planet Power – Mercury Retrograde blogs, and don’t over-react to market movement. A perfect example of the Communications/Speech theme of Mercury occurred with the sudden announcement (Uranus) of no more “cease fire” regarding the military conflict on Tuesday, followed by a mid-day “this won’t last long” proclamation on Wednesday, which caused a significant mid-day reversal.
The planet Venus has now moved on to the sign of Virgo (through Aug 6), shifting some focus from the self (Leo) to a more critical, meticulous, and selective (Virgo) market. As is typical of Virgo, the “loved” stocks will flourish, while the “hated” will be punished, with little in between.
Mars, the planet of aggression and fast-paced action, continues to transit the sign of Gemini (remaining through Aug 10), which is a more comfortable sign for the planet, after leaving Taurus, a slow-moving, earth sign. Mars picks up the pace again in this air sign, but be conscious to avoid being too impulsive. The Mars conjunction with the planet Uranus occurred last weekend, which kicked in a little early with sudden, intra-day reversals, which we noted could provide more fireworks (pun intended) in the markets. Please review our recent Trader Transits – Mars conjunct Uranus blog, dated June 22, for more information. This week reflected more of these energies as the military conflict (Mars) suddenly on/suddenly off (Uranus) status has markets fluctuating and uncertain.
Jupiter, moved into the sign of Leo two weeks ago, where it will remain until July 26, 2027, highlighting fashion and self-pleasing products, travel (signified by the Consumer Discretionary sector), as well as defense and gold. Stocks in that sector had been beaten down over the past several months, but have shown improvement (as expected), which would continue along with rising consumer sentiment, though Venus’ influence has now moved out of Leo. Please refer to our Trader Transits – Jupiter in Leo blog, dated 6-12-26, for further information. Keep in mind that travel-related stocks are sensitive to oil prices, which are vulnerable to the military conflict status (or “perceived” status).
As discussed heavily in recent months, Uranus (sudden, unexpected events/high technology) transits the sign of Gemini (communications, transportation, advanced technology) until 2033. As also noted, Uranus’ energies have been on full display of late, with quick, unexpected reversals, and, as we’ve mentioned in the past several weeks, do not be “surprised” if this type of market action continues with these other planetary transits. Please also review our Trader Transits – Uranus in Gemini blog, dated 3-30-26, for more details.
Leading sectors fluctuated again as well, with the continued “Sector Rotation.” Energy bounced around due to the daily perception of the status of the military conflict, while recent strength in Financials (always important for a bullish market), Healthcare, and Utilities weakened a bit. Keep in mind that the “rotation” is better for the market than liquidation to cash or turning to bonds in a “flight-to-quality.”
As we continued to stress, sectors of the technology industry that are likely to continue their advance into the future include AI, robotics, quantum computing, and space development (recent surge), with both Pluto positioned in Aquarius and Uranus in Gemini, for many years to come, though they will experience pullbacks along the way.
Gold (ruled by the Sun), and Silver (ruled by the Moon), finally showed some signs of life at the end of the week, with a slight break in the recent strength in the U.S. Dollar. There are a lot of rumors about a “reset” concerning gold in the coming weeks, and it may be better to “wait and see” regarding new positions. The Gold to Silver Ratio closed at 68.8, a 2-point gain from last week’s close of 66.8, remaining rather neutral. As we continue to stress, both metals remain good buys after pullbacks, so long as central banks continue to buy, and Safe-Haven investments remain popular, which is expected.
Finally, Bitcoin (ruled by Uranus) seems to have found a bottom, hopefully, and is currently consolidating. Its Fear & Greed Index closed at 32, vs last week’s close of 26, improving but remaining in Fear territory. As we mentioned the last few weeks, this beaten down sector was due for a rise as it had reached a probable buying opportunity.
***As always, this information is not intended to be financial advice, or any specific buy or sell recommendation, but rather a guide to assist the reader in some further understanding of current economic conditions/movements in the sky, and how they can affect moods, behaviors, world events, and financial markets.
