FEAR & GREED INDEX 60
The Fear & Greed Index (found on cnn.com) is one of the easiest indicators to use to determine current market emotion. This simple to read gauge, highlighted in our publication When to Buy and When to Sell: Combining Easy Indicators, Charts, and Financial Astrology (available on Amazon), is measured in a range from 0-100, and currently reads 60 as of the close on Friday, June 13, 2025.
This figure remains in the lower Greed level, sliding 3 points from last week’s close of 63. This was reflected in the S&P 500, which declined about 24 points from 6,000 to 5,976, with a large decrease on Friday. For several weeks we have focused on the fact that the four major indexes, which include the S&P 500, Nasdaq, Dow Jones Industrial, and Russell 2000 (small cap index), remained in bear market territory (when over 50% of their components continue to trade under their 200-day moving averages). Currently, only the DJIA remains above that level, at 63%, while the S&P 500 (47%) and Nasdaq (43%) slipped (though the Nasdaq 100 remains above at 60%). However, the Russell 2000, which was improving, remains in deep bear territory at only 33%, slightly down after Friday’s fall. Overall, as noted, the recent Bear market conditions were improving, but also slipped to 41.5% of all stocks contained within these 4 major indexes now trading over their 200-day moving averages (down from 43% last week). This suggests that the rally is not broad-based, and one must be selective with stocks.
The “Risk-On” sentiment was steady through most of this week, again until Friday’s global conflict changed the landscaping, at least for the time being. The stubborn 10-year bond yields fell .10 points from 4.51%, to 4.41%, as investor panic set in.
The 7 internal factors used to formulate this index are listed on the screen (below):
Market Momentum – (S&P 500 vs its 125-day moving avg) = FEAR
Market Volatility (measured by the VIX) = NEUTRAL
Put to Call Ratio 5-day avg. (# of Puts (bearish) vs Calls (bullish) = EXTREME GREED
Stock Price Strength (# of new 52-week highs vs new 52-week lows) = GREED
Stock Price Breadth (# of shares rising vs falling on NYSE) = EXTREME GREED
Safe-Haven Demand (which measures stocks vs bonds) = NEUTRAL
Junk Bond Demand (non-govt. bond yield spread) = NEUTRAL
This week, 3 of these 7 factors changed levels, led by the change in the Put to Call Ratio (from Fear to Extreme Greed). This measure is a leading indicator, which was reflecting more bullish sentiment, until the Middle East conflict reports. Also, Safe-Haven and Junk Bond Demand moved back into the Neutral column as bonds firmed up.
The VIX itself, measured by Market Volatility, though still in Neutral territory, rose 4 points, from 16.8 to 20.8, mostly on Friday, signifying a surge in market nervousness.
This week’s news was highlighted by Thursday evenings report of aggressive military conflict in the Middle East, which caused the sudden rise in the VIX and the price of Oil. Wednesday’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) report, which measures inflation, rose slightly, as did Jobless Claims, another negative for the economy. Keep in mind that recession fears have not been fully quelled, with the Fed’s continuous inconsistent remarks regarding the economy from one week to another, combined with mixed economic reports. Two weeks ago, a large majority of CEOs (83%) also said they expect a recession in the next 12-18 months (nearly matching the percentage who feared recession in late 2022 and early 2023), while the FED contends that no change in rate policy is currently necessary.
Astrologically, the planet Mars completes its stay in the sign of Leo tomorrow, June 16, and moves into the sign of Virgo. While in Leo, the equities markets performed as expected (noted in our recent weekly blogs), repeating the late 2024 uptrend, once again approaching All-Time Highs under this transit. However, Mars remains in opposition to Pluto, and Pluto continues to be in retrograde in the sign of Aquarius (until mid-October). Pluto is known to break down and restructure, while Mars likes to go full speed ahead, so beware push and pull energies in the price action over the next few weeks. Mars also formed a square with Uranus on Friday, which immediately resulted in the unexpected aggressions in the Middle East. Mars in Virgo changes the landscape to a more selective and less broad sentiment, where underperforming companies will likely be punished. It may be time to take profits on some investments that surged over the past two months, especially those were just along for the ride.
Gemini season (May 21 – June 20) continues for one more week, though it has changed as Jupiter has now left the sign. Gemini, an air sign, re-ignites the indecisive, push and pull energies, which replaced the calm and steady Taurus a few weeks ago. Please review our Sign Language – Gemini Season blog, dated 5-10-25 for more details. As the planet Mercury remains in Gemini (one of its two “home” signs), the overthinking, back and forth uncertainty increased, as expected, which resulted in the return of some volatility. Mercury also conjunct Jupiter a few days ago, which expands the mind and verbal communication. Be careful not to over-react to tariff comments back and forth between nations, or any other sudden reports regarding interest rates, recession, or the overall economy.
Other transits of note include last week’s Venus into Taurus ingress, which commonly results in strong moves in Bitcoin, which has already seen a large move up followed by a large move down. The entry of Jupiter into the sign of Cancer (last week), often ignites a rally in silver, which started just a few days early and has leveled off (Please review our recent Trader Transits – Jupiter in Cancer blog, dated 5-22-25). The planet Saturn’s recent move into the sign of Aries, where it will remain for about 2 ½ years, also signifies a restriction on the recent aggressive energies, suggesting a slowdown in the rally. Please also review our recent Trader Transit – Saturn in Aries blog, dated 5-8-25 for further details. Also, the Mars/Uranus square, signifying sudden, aggressive, action, coincided directly with the Middle east occurrence.
Leading sectors with over 50% of stocks trading over their 200-MAs continue to include the leaders, Communications Services and Utilities (both at 74%), and Information Technology (51%), and Industrials (52%) follow, while others fell back below that mark on Friday. In the long run, sectors of the technology industry are likely to continue their advance into the future, including AI, robotics, quantum computing, and space development (with Pluto in Aquarius, and Uranus upcoming ingress to Gemini in about 1 month).
Gold (ruled by the Sun), and Silver (ruled by the Moon), both advanced this again week. As noted, Jupiter (expansion) entered Cancer (ruled by the Moon) on June 9, signifying a potential much-anticipated rally in silver, as the Moon rules that metal as well. Also, as we have reported for several weeks, the Gold to Silver Ratio (covered in our publication) had remained disproportionate as it closed around 100 for several weeks, indicating silver was a better value buy than gold. The current rally in silver lowered the reading last week to 91.9, though it rose again this week to 94.9. The outlook remains the same for both, as any dip in these metals continues to be a long-term buying opportunity.
***As always, this information is not intended to be financial advice, or any specific buy or sell recommendation, but rather a guide to assist the reader in some further understanding of current economic conditions/movements in the sky, and how they can affect moods, behaviors, world events, and financial markets.
