FEAR & GREED INDEX 62
Weekly Update
The Fear & Greed Index (found on cnn.com) is one of the easiest indicators to use to determine current market emotion. This simple to read gauge, highlighted in our publication When to Buy and When to Sell: Combining Easy Indicators, Charts, and Financial Astrology (available on Amazon), is measured in a range from 0-100, and currently reads 62 as of the close on Friday, September 19, 2025.
This figure remains in the lower Greed level, after rising 6 points from last week’s close of 56. This was reflected in the S&P 500, which gained about 81 points, from 6,582 to 6,663, in a relatively calm week. The 4 major indexes, which include the S&P 500, Nasdaq, Dow Jones Industrial, and Russell 2000 (small cap index), remain in bullish territory (when over 50% of their components continue to trade over their 200-day moving averages). Each index continues around the 60% mark, with the Dow leading the way at 70% (slightly down from last week), signifying a healthier market not only dominated by the Mag7. However, the tide has turned a bit as the MAG7 became stronger again vs the broad market late in the week. Currently, the 20-day moving average for all 4 indices combined stands at 60%, unchanged from last week.
The “Risk-On” sentiment returned to some extent this week following the Federal reserve announcement of a rate cut, and mortgage rates declining. The 10-year bond yields rose slightly, closing at 4.13% this week, versus last week’s close at 4.07%.
The 7 internal factors used to formulate this gauge are listed on the screen (below):
Market Momentum – (S&P 500 vs its 125-day moving avg) = GREED
Market Volatility (measured by the VIX) = NEUTRAL
Put to Call Ratio 5-day avg. (# of Puts (bearish) vs Calls (bullish) = EXTREME GREED
Stock Price Strength (# of new 52-week highs vs new 52-week lows) = EXTREME GREED
Stock Price Breadth (# of shares rising vs falling on NYSE) = NEUTRAL
Safe-Haven Demand (which measures stocks vs bonds) = NEUTRAL
Junk Bond Demand (non-govt. bond yield spread) = FEAR
This week, 3 of these 7 factors changed levels as the Greed sentiment somewhat neutralized, with Safe- Haven and Junk Bond Demand both rising a notch from Greed to Neutral, and Extreme Fear to Fear respectively. Stock Price Breadth also slipped a level, from Greed to Neutral, reflecting the slight decline in stocks rising vs those falling.
The VIX, measured by Market Volatility, remains in Neutral territory, up slightly at 15.4, after ending the last week at 14.8. The “20” level on the VIX is often considered a crucial level, as anything under 20 suggests calm markets, and anything over reflects more uncertainty and/or nervousness among investors and traders. Volume has remained rather low into September, but should increase very soon, which can also increase price volatility. Additionally, the stocks, bonds, futures, and commodities quarterly option expiration day (known as “Quad Witching”) occurred on Friday, where $6.3 trillion was liquidated. Normally, this event also causes volatility in the afternoon (though it did not on this occasion), or on the following Monday, so be cautious Monday morning with any early trades.
This week’s news was mainly focused on the Fed’s decision to cut interest rates by 25 basis points (0.25%) on Wednesday afternoon. The announcement did not move the market significantly, as the reduction was expected. The Fed chairman also indicated, however, that there would likely be two additional rate cuts before the end of the year, finally acknowledging the issue with unemployment - as they always seem to be “late to the party.”
This week’s economic data was again mixed, with retail sales, industrial production, and manufacturing improving, while Leading Economic Indicators (LEI), and housing starts fell. The LEI is important as it encompasses many economic categories, and has now declined 2.8% over the past 6 months, after decreasing 0.9% the previous 6 months. As we have been repeating for quite some time, the underlying state of the economy has not been strong, despite some periodic positive announcements, and stock market highs.
Astrologically, Virgo season (Aug 23 – Sept 22) ends tomorrow, to be replaced by Libra season (Sept 23 – Oct 22). Please see our recent Sign Language – Libra blog, dated 9-5-25 for full details. Virgo’s perfection seeking energies in a seasonally weak period in the equity markets has resulted in the punishment of stocks who missed earnings expectations, did not provide a highly positive forward-looking statement, and/or are over-valued compared to normal industry standards, as expected. Libra is generally much more forgiving though its indecisive nature can symbolize non-directional price movement.
The planet Mercury entered the sign of Libra on Thursday (Sept 18), remaining until Oct 6, suggesting better communication and fairness between world leaders, at least economically, which could project to the global market balance. This transit occurred on the day following the Fed’s announcement to reduce interest rates, as the economic conditions were finally reported.
With the planet Venus’ transit through the sign of Leo (since Aug 25), a positive energy toward relationships and partnerships was signified. As previously discussed, the Consumer Discretionary sector usually benefits during this transit, as individuals like to “treat” themselves. Venus entered the sign of Virgo on Friday (lasting through Oct 13), which suggests a harsher judgment for those who do not cooperate.
The planet Mars ingress to the sign of Scorpio tomorrow (until Nov 4), could ignite more fireworks and volatility. Please review last week’s Trader Transits - Mars in Scorpio blog, dated 9-13-25, for further details.
Leading sectors, with over 50% of stocks trading over their 200-MAs, continue to include Communications Services, Info Tech, Utilities, and Consumer Discretionary, all remaining over 70%, while Real Estate, Energy and now Health Care continue to lag. In the long run, sectors of the technology industry that are likely to continue their advance into the future include AI, robotics, quantum computing, and space development (with Pluto positioned in Aquarius, and Uranus recent ingress into Gemini).
Gold (ruled by the Sun), and Silver (ruled by the Moon), both surged on Thursday and Friday, with a weak dollar, after drifting downward early in the week. As noted, the Jupiter in Cancer transit, which began on June 9, is favorable for silver, and continues to be just that. The Gold to Silver Ratio (covered in our publication), has remained steady for the past month or so, closing at 85.4, down slightly from last week’s close of 86.2 (remaining near its lowest level since mid-December). The outlook remains the same for both, however, as any dip in these metals continues to be a long-term buying opportunity. Copper resumed its rally also, after a brief dip, and has been strong since April.
***As always, this information is not intended to be financial advice, or any specific buy or sell recommendation, but rather a guide to assist the reader in some further understanding of current economic conditions/movements in the sky, and how they can affect moods, behaviors, world events, and financial markets.
