FEAR & GREED INDEX 63
The Fear & Greed Index (found on cnn.com) is one of the easiest indicators to use to determine current market emotion. This simple to read gauge, highlighted in our publication When to Buy and When to Sell: Combining Easy Indicators, Charts, and Financial Astrology (available on Amazon), is measured in a range from 0-100, and currently reads 63 as of the close on Friday, June 6, 2025.
This figure remains in the lower Greed level, rising 1 point from last week’s close of 62. This was reflected in the S&P 500, which rose about 89 points from 5,911 to exactly 6,000, for the first time since mid-February. For several weeks we have focused on the fact that the four major indexes, which include the S&P 500, Nasdaq, Dow Jones Industrial, and Russell 2000 (small cap index), remained in bear market territory (when over 50% of their components continue to trade under their 200-day moving averages). Currently, only the DJIA remains above that level, at 60%, while the S&P 500 (46%) and Nasdaq (47%) are close (though the Nasdaq 100 remains above at 63%). However, the Russell 2000, remains in deep bear territory at only 35%, slightly up from 32%. Overall, as noted, the recent Bear market condition continues to improve, as approximately 43% of all stocks contained within these 4 major indexes are now trading over their 200-day moving averages (up from 40% last week). This suggests that the rally is not broad-based, and one must be selective with stocks.
The “Risk-On” sentiment was stable this week, as U.S. Manufacturing declined for the 4th straight month, and Consumer Sentiment remained at historic lows. The stubborn 10-year bond yields rose from 4.4%, to 4.51%, as investors remained uncertain on the heels of the U.S. recent debt downgrade by Moody’s from AAA to AA. Normally this results in higher borrowing costs for consumers, despite the rating remaining quite high.
The 7 internal factors used to formulate this index are listed on the screen (below):
Market Momentum – (S&P 500 vs its 125-day moving avg) = FEAR
Market Volatility (measured by the VIX) = NEUTRAL
Put to Call Ratio 5-day avg. (# of Puts (bearish) vs Calls (bullish) = FEAR
Stock Price Strength (# of new 52-week highs vs new 52-week lows) = GREED
Stock Price Breadth (# of shares rising vs falling on NYSE) = EXTREME GREED
Safe-Haven Demand (which measures stocks vs bonds) = EXTREME GREED
Junk Bond Demand (non-govt. bond yield spread) = GREED
This week, 3 of these 7 factors changed levels, as 4 of the 7 remain at Greed or Extreme Greed levels. Market Momentum remains at a low level (as it does take time for a 125-day moving average to rise after a steep drop), though it has finally improved enough to move over its 125-day MA. The Fear reading does suggest that investors should remain cautious for the time being. The continued level of the Put to Call Ratio (Fear) also suggests caution, as this measure is a leading indicator reflecting more bearish sentiment, at least in the short term. Also, Safe-Haven Demand moved back into the Extreme Greed column as bonds continued to drop, indicating that investors are again hedging/protecting their portfolios.
The VIX itself, measured by Market Volatility, though still in Neutral territory, dropping almost 2 points, from 18.6 to 16.8, signifying a decrease in market nervousness, as price action continued upward.
This week’s news was highlighted by employment reports and the sudden on again/off again “feud” between the President and Elon Musk, mostly regarding the new proposed “Big Beautiful Bill.” This “tiff” caused TESLA stock to suddenly plunge on Thursday, before recovering somewhat on Friday, due to over-reaction. Keep in mind that recession fears have not been fully quelled, with the Fed’s continuous inconsistent remarks regarding the economy from one week to another, combined with mixed economic reports. Last week, a large majority of CEOs (83%) also said they expect a recession in the next 12-18 months (nearly matching the percentage who feared recession in late 2022 and early 2023), while the FED contends that no change in rate policy is currently necessary.
Regarding the employment picture, ADP (job creation) results were very low on Wednesday, though the non-farm payroll report was positive on Friday. The unemployment rate remained steady at 4.2%, while the JOLTS (Job openings) report was higher than expected earlier in the week. It is no surprise that the market cannot figure out the true state of the economy with the constant inconsistencies in these reports. Please see our recent Financial Focus – Labor(ing) blog, dated 6-6-25, for a deeper dive into the numbers.
Astrologically, the planet Mars has almost completed its stay in the sign of Leo (1 more week). As noted in several previous blogs, during the same transit from early November to early January, markets reached their highs after the election. During the current transit, the trend has again been bullish, approaching All-Time Highs once more. However, Mars is in opposition to Pluto, and Pluto turned retrograde (a few weeks ago) in the sign of Aquarius (until mid-October). Pluto is known to break down and restructure, while Mars likes to go full speed ahead, so beware more push and pull in the price action in the next few weeks.
Gemini season (May 21 – June 20) remains in full effect. Gemini, an air sign, re-ignites the indecisive, push and pull energies, which replaced the calm and steady Taurus a few weeks ago. Please review our Sign Language – Gemini Season blog, dated 5-10-25 for more details. As the planet Mercury also entered Gemini (one of its two “home” signs) two weekends ago, the overthinking, back and forth uncertainty increased, as expected, which resulted in the return of volatility. Mercury will also conjunct Jupiter this weekend, signifying further abundance of speech and communication. Be careful not to over-react to tariff comments back and forth between nations, or any other sudden reports regarding interest rates, recession, or the overall economy.
Other transits of note include this week’s Venus into Taurus ingress, which commonly results in strong moves in Bitcoin, as well as the entry of Jupiter into the sign of Cancer in a few days (as we mentioned last week), which often ignites a rally in silver. (Please review our recent Trader Transits – Jupiter in Cancer blog, dated 5-22-25). The planet Saturn’s recent move into the sign of Aries, where it will remain for about 2 ½ years, also signifies a restriction on the recent aggressive energies. Please also review our recent Trader Transit – Saturn in Aries blog, dated 5-8-25 for further details.
Leading sectors with over 50% of stocks trading over their 200-MAs continue to include the leader, Communications Services (83%) and Utilities (68% - but slipping). Financials (62%), Information Technology (58%), and Industrials (53%) follow, while Consumer Discretionary fell back below that mark. In the long run, sectors of the technology industry are likely to continue their advance into the future, including AI, robotics, quantum computing, and space development (with Pluto in Aquarius, and Uranus upcoming ingress to Gemini in about 1 month).
Gold (ruled by the Sun), and Silver (ruled by the Moon), were moving in opposite directions by weeks end. As noted, Jupiter (expansion) will be entering Cancer (ruled by the Moon) tomorrow, June 9, signifying a potential much-anticipated rally in silver (which may have just started a few days early) as the Moon rules that metal. Also, as we have reported for several weeks, the Gold to Silver Ratio (covered in our publication) remained disproportionate after closing at 99.7 last week, indicating silver continues to be a better value buy than gold. As gold pulled back a bit on Thursday and Friday, silver continued to climb, finally taking the lead. That surge did cause the ratio itself to plunge about 8 points (mostly on Thursday and Friday) to close out the week at 91.9. The outlook remains the same for both, as any dip in these metals continues to be a long-term buying opportunity.
***As always, this information is not intended to be financial advice, or any specific buy or sell recommendation, but rather a guide to assist the reader in some further understanding of current economic conditions/movements in the sky, and how they can affect moods, behaviors, world events, and financial markets.
