FEAR & GREED INDEX 64
Weekly Update
The Fear & Greed Index (found on cnn.com) is one of the easiest indicators to use to determine current market emotion. This simple to read gauge, highlighted in our publication When to Buy and When to Sell: Combining Easy Indicators, Charts, and Financial Astrology (available on Amazon), is measured in a range from 0-100, and currently reads 64 as of the close on Friday, August 15, 2025.
This figure remains in the Greed level, after rising 5 points from last week’s close of 59. This was reflected in the S&P 500, which gained about 65 points, from 6,389 to 6,454, as investor sentiment continues to be slightly bullish. The four major indexes, which include the S&P 500, Nasdaq, Dow Jones Industrial, and Russell 2000 (small cap index), resumed their bullish sentiment (when over 50% of their components continue to trade over their 200-day moving averages), with the Russell 2000 just above at 51% (an improvement from last week’s 47%). Currently, the 20-day moving average for all 4 indices combined stands at 53.4%.
The “Risk-On” sentiment continued during the week, as reflected in the broadening of the market noted above, despite mixed inflation reports. While the Consumer Price Index (CPI), indicating lower Year-over-Year inflation, was slightly positive, the Producer Price Index (PPI), was negative. The 10-year bond yields rose marginally, to 4.32%, after closing last week at 4.29%, as the interest rate cut in September debate continues.
The 7 internal factors used to formulate this gauge are listed on the screen (below):
Market Momentum – (S&P 500 vs its 125-day moving avg) = GREED
Market Volatility (measured by the VIX) = NEUTRAL
Put to Call Ratio 5-day avg. (# of Puts (bearish) vs Calls (bullish) = EXTREME GREED
Stock Price Strength (# of new 52-week highs vs new 52-week lows) = GREED
Stock Price Breadth (# of shares rising vs falling on NYSE) = NEUTRAL
Safe-Haven Demand (which measures stocks vs bonds) = GREED
Junk Bond Demand (non-govt. bond yield spread) = GREED
This week, 2 of these 7 factors changed levels as Greed sentiment continues to control the markets. The Put to Call Ratio, which slid back to Neutral last week, surged to Extreme Greed, though that wasn’t exactly reflected in the price action. This may have been the result of short positions, that were added the past two weeks, being closed due to the current uncertainty in market direction. As we have noted recently, August and September are seasonally weak (with the exception of last year). Consolidation, rather than a correction, would be considered positive in the long run.
The VIX, measured by Market Volatility, remains in Neutral territory, unchanged from last week’s close of 15.1. The “20” level on the VIX is often considered a crucial level, as anything under 20 suggests calm markets, and anything over reflects more uncertainty/nervousness among investors and traders. This figure is again approaching a “reversal” level, suggesting another possible spike in volatility.
This week’s news was mainly focused on the CPI, monthly report, on Tuesday morning, which indicated slightly lower consumer costs, and the PPI, on Thursday morning, which indicated much higher Year-Over-Year inflation numbers than expected (3.3% vs a consensus 2.6%). The former (CPI) measures the consumer’s price for goods and services, while the latter (PPI) measures the Producer’s costs. Generally, inflation will hit the producer first, who then passes it down to the consumer. This reading does not include Food & Energy costs, which also rose, and is not a very good sign for consumers in the near future. The market reacted negatively to the PPI at first, with bonds and equities declining, but had recovered for the most part by day’s end. On Friday, the markets remained rather calm, with the anticipation of the significant U.S. and Russia leaders “peace” meeting in Alaska. The market did not have time to react, as it was closed by the time any facts from the meeting were released, and remains to be seen on Monday morning. Volatility in the equities markets is likely to increase in the next 4-6 weeks, as seasonality, and the much-anticipated Fed rate cut decision in their September meeting weighs on investors.
Astrologically, Leo season (July 22 – Aug 22) nears its end, and its proud and outgoing energies have been reflected in world leaders and CEOs over the past few weeks. Please review our Sign Language – Leo Season blog, dated 7-10-25 for more details. Leo season is typically weak, and has been wishy-washy for the first few weeks. With the planet Venus’ ingress to the sign of Cancer, emotions should be kept in check, and one should not fall victim to FOMO (Fear of Missing Out), as discussed in our recent Trader Transits – Venus in Cancer blog, dated 7-21-25. Venus also conjunct the planet Jupiter on Tuesday (August 12), noted as a potentially “lucky” and favorable day, which did not disappoint, as all major indices increased significantly, led by the S&P 500’s gain of over 1%. It also helped boost the homebuilder and defense industry, signified by Cancer.
Mercury Retrograde, which often results in volatility and pullbacks in the markets as well, ended on Monday, August 11. Although this period did not see an overall decline, the usual volatility resulted in a mixed market, unsure where to go. As we noted the last few weeks, tensions could increase again between world leaders, which may culminate with the results of the Alaska meeting, and always affects the markets short-term.
The planet Mars recent ingress to Libra (a peaceful, balanced sign) suggests a potential consolidation and fairly-priced market, though its opposition to Saturn and Neptune in the sign of Aries (ruled by Mars) can result in further confusion (Neptune) and challenges (Saturn) regarding global conflict and financial markets. This supports the likelihood of increased volatility over the next month and a half.
Leading sectors, with over 50% of stocks trading over their 200-MAs, continue to include Utilities (which has cooled in the past couple of weeks), Communications Services, and Consumer Discretionary, which continue to be the only 3 over 70%. Information Technology, Financials, and Industrials remain solid (in the 60% range), while Energy and Real Estate continue to lag. In the long run, sectors of the technology industry that are likely to continue their advance into the future include AI, robotics, quantum computing, and space development (with Pluto in Aquarius, and Uranus recent ingress into Gemini).
Gold (ruled by the Sun), and Silver (ruled by the Moon), were mixed this week with gold advancing and silver basically even, in reaction to the inconsistent economic reports. As noted for the past two months, the Jupiter in Cancer transit, which began on June 9, is favorable for silver, and jump-started a much-anticipated rally in that metal. The Gold to Silver Ratio (covered in our publication), which had remained disproportionately in favor of silver for quite some time, has been steady in the past month or so, closing at 87.6, after last week’s close of 88.5 (remaining near its lowest level since mid-December). The outlook remains the same for both, however, as any dip in these metals continues to be a long-term buying opportunity. Copper has also been rallying heavily following a sharp downturn, and its strength should continue absent any recession concerns.
***As always, this information is not intended to be financial advice, or any specific buy or sell recommendation, but rather a guide to assist the reader in some further understanding of current economic conditions/movements in the sky, and how they can affect moods, behaviors, world events, and financial markets.
