FEAR & GREED INDEX 65
The Fear & Greed Index (found on cnn.com) is one of the easiest indicators to use to determine current market emotion. This simple to read gauge, highlighted in our publication When to Buy and When to Sell: Combining Easy Indicators, Charts, and Financial Astrology (available on Amazon), is measured in a range from 0-100, and currently reads 65 as of the close on Friday, June 27, 2025.
This figure currently sits in the mid-Greed level, after rising about 10 points from last week’s close of 55. This was reflected in the S&P 500, which rose about 206 points from 5,967 to 6,173, for a significant gain of 3.5%. For several weeks we have focused on the fact that the four major indexes, which include the S&P 500, Nasdaq, Dow Jones Industrial, and Russell 2000 (small cap index), remained in bear market territory (when over 50% of their components continue to trade under their 200-day moving averages). Currently, as each have continued to consistently improve, the DJIA now stands at 60% (up from 57% last week), while the S&P 500 (51%) and Nasdaq (50%) both finally reached that landmark (the Nasdaq 100 also remains well above at 66%). The Russell 2000, which has been a major laggard, remains in bear territory, now at only 40%, but up quite a bit from last week’s 33%. Overall, the Bear market conditions have almost subsided, as 47% of all stocks contained within these 4 major indexes are now trading over their 200-day moving averages (up 41.5% from last week). This suggests that though the rally has not been broad-based for quite some time, momentum has increased. Yes, the Nasdaq just made new All-Time Highs again this week, but is being carried more by the leading stocks (Nasdaq 100), not most stocks, and one must continue to be selective with stocks choice.
The “Risk-On” sentiment returned early in the week, as nervousness regarding the middle-East conflict tensions eased, and 10-year bond yields decreased from 4.38%, to 4.28%, as well.
The 7 internal factors used to formulate this index are listed on the screen (below):
Market Momentum – (S&P 500 vs its 125-day moving avg) = NEUTRAL
Market Volatility (measured by the VIX) = NEUTRAL
Put to Call Ratio 5-day avg. (# of Puts (bearish) vs Calls (bullish) = GREED
Stock Price Strength (# of new 52-week highs vs new 52-week lows) = GREED
Stock Price Breadth (# of shares rising vs falling on NYSE) = EXTREME GREED
Safe-Haven Demand (which measures stocks vs bonds) = GREED
Junk Bond Demand (non-govt. bond yield spread) = GREED
This week, 2 of these 7 factors changed levels, led by another sentiment change in the Put to Call Ratio, from Fear to Greed, the opposite of last week. This measure is a leading indicator, which is again reflecting more bullish sentiment, though it keeps bouncing back and forth. Also, Market Momentum moved up to Neutral, consistent with the S&P 500 Index now containing 51% of its stocks over the 200-day MA.
The VIX, measured by Market Volatility, remains in Neutral territory, improving over 4 points, from 20.6 to 16.3. The “20” level on the VIX is often considered a crucial level, as anything under suggests calm markets, and anything over reflects more uncertainty/nervousness among investors and traders.
This week’s news was highlighted by slightly better than expected results in new and pending home sales, jobless claims, manufacturing, consumer sentiment, and durable goods orders (bullish), while personal consumption expenditures (PCE) and Gross Domestic Product (GDP) continued to be worse than expected. The GDP actually showed a contraction last quarter (after revision, of course), and projects to be negative again this quarter. However, the FOMC meetings on Tuesday and Wednesday also resulted in another “hold steady” interest rate outlook, despite the continuing negative economic reports. Keep in mind that fears of a recession (defined as 2 consecutive negative GDP quarters) have not been fully quelled, with the Fed’s continuous inconsistent remarks regarding the economy from one week to another, combined with these mixed economic reports. As noted in the last few weeks, a recent poll of CEO’s revealed 83% are expecting a recession over the next few quarters.
As recently discussed, this is also the time of year for the “quarterly window dressing” (when fund managers add high performing stocks to their portfolios) and the annual Russell Re-alignment (when stocks are added and subtracted from that index), which took place on Friday. The rise in the markets throughout this week was no surprise considering these two events. Please see our publication and our Financial Focus – Russell re-alignment blog, dated 5-28-25 for more details.
Astrologically, the planet Mars completed its stay in the sign of Leo, and has moved into the sign of Virgo. While in Leo, the equities markets performed as expected (noted in our recent weekly blogs), repeating its late 2024 uptrend, once again approaching All-Time Highs under this transit. Mars’ square with Uranus last week, however, immediately resulted in the unexpected aggressions in the Middle East. Mars in Virgo changes the landscape to a more selective process (as Virgo seeks perfection), where underperforming companies will likely be punished. It may be time to take profits on some investments that surged over the past two months, especially those were just along for the ride.
Cancer season has now kicked in (June 21 – July 21), which symbolizes emotional and protective energies. Please review our Sign Language – Cancer Season blog, dated 6-10-25 for more details. As the planet Mercury traveled through Cancer the past couple of weeks, there were many emotional reactions to the verbal sparring (Mercury) regarding the Middle-East tensions, especially when Mercury was conjunct Jupiter, which expanded those energies. This resulted in a back-and-forth market, based on the increased uncertainty. Be careful not to over-react to the news, or any other sudden reports, regarding interest rates, recession, or the overall economy. The entry of Jupiter into the sign of Cancer (last week), often ignites a rally in silver, which started just a few days early and has now leveled off (Please review our recent Trader Transits – Jupiter in Cancer blog, dated 5-22-25). Jupiter also conjunct the Sun (which occurs once per year) this past Tuesday, June 24, considered the “luckiest” transit of the year! Right on cue, the markets shot up, and were positive all week.
The Mars/Uranus square, signifying sudden, aggressive, action, which coincided directly with the Middle east occurrence two weeks ago, is pulling away. This would suggest an easing of tensions, but not necessarily a resolution. As Mercury travels towards Leo, tensions could increase again between world leaders, which always affects the markets short-term.
Leading sectors with over 50% of stocks trading over their 200-MAs has increased, including Communications Services (74%), Financials (64%), Information Technology (62%), and Utilities (58%), which declined a bit this week. In the long run, sectors of the technology industry that are likely to continue their advance into the future include AI, robotics, quantum computing, and space development (with Pluto in Aquarius, and Uranus upcoming ingress to Gemini in about 1 week).
Gold (ruled by the Sun), and Silver (ruled by the Moon), declined this week, correlating with the rise in Risk-On sentiment. Gold pulled back steadily from Monday to Friday, while silver dipped slightly and appears to be consolidating. As noted, Jupiter (expansion) entered Cancer (ruled by the Moon) on June 9, signifying a potential much-anticipated rally in silver, as the Moon rules that metal as well. Also, as we have reported for several weeks, the Gold to Silver Ratio (covered in our publication) had remained disproportionately in favor of silver, though it has been decreasing of late ending this week at 90.8, after last week’s close of 93.4. The outlook remains the same for both, however, as any dip in these metals continues to be a long-term buying opportunity.
***As always, this information is not intended to be financial advice, or any specific buy or sell recommendation, but rather a guide to assist the reader in some further understanding of current economic conditions/movements in the sky, and how they can affect moods, behaviors, world events, and financial markets.
