INDICATOR INSIGHTS
Monthly Review
CATEGORY
Market Sentiment/Risk MO. END CHANGE LEVEL
Fear & Greed Index (Market sentiment) 60 -7 Greed
VIX (S&P 500 Volatility measure) 15.3 -1.7 Neutral
MMRI (Risk measured by interest rates) 273 +7 High risk
U.S. 10yr-bond yield 4.44 +.07 Increase
Fear & Greed Bitcoin 34 -12 Fear
CSI (Consumer Sentiment) 44.8 -8.5 Large Decrease
U.S. Economy UP/DOWN LEVEL
LEI (Overall leading indicators) Slight Up Neutral (April)
GDP (Gross Domestic Product) Slight Up Neutral
ISM/PMI (Producers Manufacturing Index) Up Bullish
CPI/PPI (Consumer & Producer Price Index) Up Bearish HTE
Personal Income Even Neutral
Consumer Confidence/Retail Spending Down Bearish
Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Slight Up Neutral In-line with expect
JOLTS (Unemployment categories) Even Neutral
ADP (Jobs – non-farm payroll added) Down Bearish
(Initial and continued jobless claims) Down Bullish
Transports (Shipping, durable goods orders) Even Neutral
Real Estate (New/existing sales) Mixed Neutral
(Housing starts/Construction) Mixed Neutral
(Mortgage demand) Down Bearish
Business Activity/CEO Confidence Down Bearish
**This section updated to the market close on May 29, 2026
**LTE = Lower than expected (bearish) / HTE = Higher than expected (bullish)
***We may not present the most recent numbers (often revised, and unreported in the mainstream media). Actual figures and charts can be found on the internet, including the FRED (Federal Reserve Economic Data) website.
Price Action UP/DOWN LEVEL
RSI (Relative Price Strength) Slight Up Bullish
PCR (Put to Call Ratio – 5 day avg) Down Bullish over-extended
ADL (Advance/Decline line) Up Bullish over-extended
MFI (Money Flow Index) Up Bullish over-extended
Institutional Trading Even Neutral
Commodities MO. END CHANGE LEVEL
Gold to Silver Ratio 61.2 -1.6 Neutral
Crude Oil 87.76 -14.74 Neutral
Index Pct of Highs 20-Day 50-Day 200-Day LEVEL
OVERALL Markets 54 58 55 Significant Decrease
DJIA (Blue Chips) 53 60 57 Slight Decrease
S&P 500 (Top 500) 50 52 55 Decrease
QQQ (Technology) 60 63 63 Slight Increase
IWM (Small Caps) 60 64 61 Decrease
As introduced in Chapter 3 of our publication When to Buy and When to Sell: Combining Easy Indicators, Charts, and Financial Astrology (available on Amazon), there are several “leading indicators” that go largely unnoticed and under-utilized by the average beginner or intermediate investor. Some of these indicators measure human emotion and market sentiment that often determines shorter term price action, while others uncover the true conditions of the economy, institutional buying and selling, and risk levels.
In our monthly “Indicator Insights” blog (first weekend of each month) we report the previous month-end levels (pertaining to the U.S. economy and/or the S&P 500), including several of these easy-to-read gauges to provide a quick-guide for our readers, with periodic analysis when necessary. Our monthly updates in this blog section include several market psychology related gauges, including the S&P 500 Fear & Greed Index, although there will be no commentary, as we dedicate an entire separate weekly blog to that specific indicator. Please take a moment to review the attached figures.
In the last edition, covering April of 2026, we discussed the sharp reversal in equities following March’s oversold conditions. The major catalyst was a technology surge, led by semiconductor stocks, which rose for a record 18 straight sessions, that reached new record highs by the last week of the month. We also mentioned, however, to beware the 2nd year of the Presidential Cycle (known as the Mid-Term Election Year), discussed in our 12-27-25 Did You Know? blog by the same name.
In years past, as mentioned, the month of May often resulted in a market downturn, as fund managers and shorter-term investors/traders would Sell in May and Go Away until the Fall. However, this strategy has not been beneficial over the past several years, due to many factors, including the fact that July has become the 2nd highest month for gains, and May itself has been positive.
The month of May, 2026, was again positive, with the S&P 500 gaining almost 1%, and the technology heavy Nasdaq surging 8%, despite the continued military conflict in the Middle-East and high oil prices until the last few days. Earnings season was very strong in the technology sector, especially in semi-conductors/chips companies. Space related stocks also surged with the highly anticipated SpaceX IPO approaching on June 12.
“Readings of note” in the month of May quietly focused around a negative reversal in categories including CEO and Consumer Sentiment/Confidence, bond yields, mortgage applications, and Moving Average market internals. Manufacturing, Jobs, and the strong tech earnings remained positive, which contributed to the continued market gains.
Also noted in the month of May, was the lower volatility (VIX), which was expected, and the continued move down of the important Put to Call Ratio, which measures activity in the options futures market. The lower the gauge moves indicates a higher Call bias in the options market, which normally results in a reversal at either extreme. The reading currently sits in the “danger zone” of an unbalanced “bullish” sentiment, also known as over-extended, suggesting a near-term pullback in the market.
The month of June is commonly more volatile than the preceding month, though does not historically suffer any major correction. Expect a back-and-forth market over the next few weeks, if history repeats or rhymes, and keep an eye on the market internals.
***As always, this information is not intended to be financial advice, or any specific buy or sell recommendation, but rather a guide to assist the reader in some further understanding of current economic conditions.
