INDICATOR INSIGHTS

Monthly Review

CATEGORY

Market Sentiment/Risk                          MO. END CHANGE LEVEL

Fear & Greed Index (Market sentiment)                  67               +52           Greed

VIX (S&P 500 Volatility measure)                     17              -8.4          Neutral

MMRI (Risk measured by interest rates)                 267               +1             High risk

U.S. 10yr-bond yield                                                4.37             +.42           Significant Increase

Fear & Greed Bitcoin                                                46               +16            Neutral

CSI (Consumer Sentiment)                                      53.3               -4             Decrease/LTE

U.S. Economy                                               UP/DOWN LEVEL

LEI (Overall leading indicators)                                  Down             Bearish  (March)

GDP (Gross Domestic Product) Slight Up         Bullish (1st Q – 2026)

ISM/PMI (Producers Manufacturing Index)                  Up               Bullish    14 month high    

CPI/PPI (Consumer & Producer Price Index)               Up                Bearish   HTE    

Personal Income                                                             Up                Bullish    HTE

Consumer Confidence/Retail Spending                         Up                Bullish    4 month high

Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE)             Slight Up          Neutral    In-line with expect           

JOLTS (Unemployment categories)                             Down             Neutral    BTE

ADP (Jobs – non-farm payroll added)                          Down             Bearish         

         (Initial and continued jobless claims)                  Down             Bullish

Transports (Shipping, durable goods orders)                Even              Neutral     

Real Estate (New/existing sales)                            Down            Bearish   

  (Housing starts/Construction)                                    Down             Bearish             

  (Mortgage demand)    Down   Bearish

Business Activity/CEO Confidence     Up          Bullish

**This section updated to the market close on May 1, 2026

**LTE = Lower than expected (bearish) / HTE = Higher than expected (bullish)

***We may not present the most recent numbers (often revised, and unreported in the mainstream media). Actual figures and charts can be found on the internet, including the FRED (Federal Reserve Economic Data) website.

Price Action                                               UP/DOWN LEVEL

RSI (Relative Price Strength)                                    Even               Bullish

PCR (Put to Call Ratio – 5 day avg)                        Down              Bullish   

ADL (Advance/Decline line)                                  Surge Up          Bullish over-extended         

MFI (Money Flow Index)                                        Surge Up           Bullish  

Institutional Trading     Slight Selling      Neutral

Commodities                                   MO. END CHANGE LEVEL

Gold to Silver Ratio                                  61.2             -1.6           Neutral

Crude Oil                                             102.50        +1.12         Extreme Bearish

Index Pct of Highs                  20-Day 50-Day 200-Day LEVEL

OVERALL Markets                         60            63 63 Significant Increase

DJIA  (Blue Chips)                             56            55             57           Increase  

S&P 500  (Top 500)                         62            69             61         Increase

QQQ  (Technology)                           63            53             60          Significant Increase

IWM  (Small Caps)                  65            72            62 Significant Increase

As introduced in Chapter 3 of our publication When to Buy and When to Sell: Combining Easy Indicators, Charts, and Financial Astrology (available on Amazon), there are several “leading indicators” that go largely unnoticed and under-utilized by the average beginner or intermediate investor. Some of these indicators measure human emotion and market sentiment that often determines shorter term price action, while others uncover the true conditions of the economy, institutional buying and selling, and risk levels. 

     In our monthly “Indicator Insights” blog (first weekend of each month) we report the previous month-end levels (pertaining to the U.S. economy and/or the S&P 500), including several of these easy-to-read gauges to provide a quick-guide for our readers, with periodic analysis when necessary. Our monthly updates in this blog section include several market psychology related gauges, including the S&P 500 Fear & Greed Index, although there will be no commentary, as we dedicate an entire separate weekly blog to that specific indicator. Please take a moment to review the attached figures. 

      In the last edition, covering March of 2026, we expressed continued decreasing market internals that extended the pullback from the prior month, and highlighted that seasonality normally results in calmer markets as we progress through April. We also mentioned, however, to beware the 2nd year of the Presidential Cycle (known as the Mid-Term Election Year), discussed in our 12-27-25 Did You Know? blog by the same name. 

      The month of April, 2026, saw a sharp reversal in equities after over-sold conditions. The major catalyst was a technology surge, led by semiconductor stocks, which rose for a record 18 straight sessions, that reached new record highs by the last week of the month. This has recently become the seasonal norm, with February and March weakness reversing in April. As mentioned in several previous Quick Quotes blogs, the old Sell in May and Go Away strategy is basically non-existent, though there may still be some volatility with the ongoing military conflict. 

      “Readings of note” in the month of April focused around the Fear & Greed Index’ rapid recovery from Extreme Fear level lows at the end of March, rising from 15 to 67 (Mid-Greed) by the end of April. In tandem, the VIX, which remained above the “20” danger zone for all of March, dropped over 30% to end April at 17 (Neutral). Some improving economic conditions, including CEO and Consumer Sentiment, Manufacturing, Jobs, and positive earnings has contributed to the sharp recovery. Real estate woes continued, however, as new and existing home sales, and mortgage demand have continued to slump, holding down the Leading Economic Indicators gauge for the time being. 

      Also noted in the month of April, was the volatility of the important Put to Call Ratio, which measures activity in the options futures market. This gauge has seen more extremes than usual, in both directions, further confirming the uncertainty and vulnerability of the equities markets. A spike or dip into extreme areas is often followed by a reversal in the markets, which sometimes only lasts a day or two. Remember to keep stop-loss orders mental (not in the system), and keep some cash aside to take advantage of these buying/selling opportunities. Also, short-term investors and traders should beware of any false rallies, as they occur more often during high volatility. 

In years past, as mentioned, the month of May often resulted in a market downturn, as fund managers and shorter-term investors/traders would Sell in May and Go Away until the Fall. However, this strategy has not been beneficial over the past several years, due to many factors, including the fact that July has become the 2nd highest month for gains. This year, industries including Energy/Oil and Utilities will remain in favor if the global military conflict persists, though caution should be heeded to avoid blindly jumping into these stocks at high levels, as any confirmed end to the conflict will likely create a selloff. Bond yields remained steady after rising last month, as the Federal Reserve kept rates unchanged, though Stagflation (a situation where growth is slowing while inflation is rising) remains a concern.     

***As always, this information is not intended to be financial advice, or any specific buy or sell recommendation, but rather a guide to assist the reader in some further understanding of current economic conditions.