INDICATOR INSIGHTS
Monthly Review
CATEGORY
Market Sentiment/Risk MO. END CHANGE LEVEL
Fear & Greed Index (Market sentiment) 42 +11 Upper Fear
VIX (S&P 500 Volatility measure) 16 - 0.5 Neutral
MMRI (Risk measured by interest rates) 292 +13 High risk (19 yr hi)
U.S. 10yr-bond yield 4.72 +.27 Increase - bearish
Fear & Greed Bitcoin 33 +17 Stablizing
CSI (Consumer Sentiment) 54.9 +5.7 Up – 5 month high
U.S. Economy UP/DOWN LEVEL
LEI (Overall leading indicators) Slight Down Bearish (June)
GDP (Gross Domestic Product) Up Neutral WTE
ISM/PMI (Producers Manufacturing Index) Slight Up Neutral
CPI/PPI (Consumer & Producer Price Index) Up Bearish LTE
Personal Income Slight Up Neutral LTE
Consumer Confidence/Retail Spending Slight Up Bullish (Still down YOY)
Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Slight Up Bearish HTE
JOLTS (Unemployment categories) Up Bullish
ADP (Jobs – non-farm payroll added) Even Neutral LTE
(Initial and continued jobless claims) Down Bullish For economy
Transports (Shipping, durable goods orders) Slight Down Bearish
Real Estate (New/existing sales) Mixed Neutral
(Housing starts/Construction) Slight Up Neutral
(Mortgage demand) Down Bearish
Business Activity/CEO Confidence DOWN Bearish Negative sentiment
**This section updated to the market close on July 31, 2026
**LTE = Lower than expected (bearish) / HTE = Higher than expected (bullish)
***We may not present the most recent numbers (often revised, and unreported in the mainstream media). Actual figures and charts can be found on the internet, including the FRED (Federal Reserve Economic Data) website.
Price Action UP/DOWN LEVEL
RSI (Relative Price Strength) Up Bullish
PCR (Put to Call Ratio – 5 day avg) Flat Neutral high volatility
ADL (Advance/Decline line) Slight Down Bearish
MFI (Money Flow Index) Flat Neutral increase at month end
Institutional Trading Even Neutral
Commodities MO. END CHANGE LEVEL
Gold to Silver Ratio 70.1 +1.7 Neutral
Crude Oil 86.80 +17.04 Bearish
Index Pct of Highs 20-Day 50-Day 200-Day LEVEL
OVERALL Markets 45 51 56 Decrease - bearish
DJIA (Blue Chips) 50 57 67 Slight increase
S&P 500 (Top 500) 53 62 67 Mixed
QQQ (Technology) 46 54 64 Decrease short term
IWM (Small Caps) 44 53 62 Decrease short term
As introduced in Chapter 3 of our publication When to Buy and When to Sell: Combining Easy Indicators, Charts, and Financial Astrology (available on Amazon), there are several “leading indicators” that go largely unnoticed and under-utilized by the average beginner or intermediate investor. Some of these indicators measure human emotion and market sentiment that often determines shorter term price action, while others uncover the true conditions of the economy, institutional buying and selling, and risk levels.
In our monthly “Indicator Insights” blog (first weekend of each month) we report the previous month-end levels (pertaining to the U.S. economy and/or the S&P 500), including several of these easy-to-read gauges to provide a quick-guide for our readers, with periodic analysis when necessary. Our monthly updates in this blog section include several market psychology related gauges, including the S&P 500 Fear & Greed Index, although there will be no commentary, as we dedicate an entire separate weekly blog to that specific indicator. Please take a moment to review the attached figures.
In the last edition, covering June of 2026, we discussed how the month followed its seasonal pattern, with added volatility, and a relatively flat month for the S&P 500, which declined 81 points, or about 1%. Volatility showed up mainly in the all-important Put to Call Ratio, which measures activity in the options futures market. The gauge reached extremes on several occasions, causing many reversals, including wild intra-day price action. The whipsaw action made trading consistency very difficult, unfortunately, and as a result, both the Advance/Decline Line and the Money Flow Index experienced volatility as well, ending the month flat, reflecting non-directional price action. Overall, it was a typical June across the major indexes.
We also previewed that the month of July (2nd best month of the year) is commonly more positive than the preceding month, though it historically does not sustain any rallies through the rest of the summer and early Fall. September, which has become the worst month for returns over the past few decades, has been positive the past two years, so the back-and-forth market action may continue leading into the 4th Quarter.
This year, July did not follow the normal script as we suggested in previous blogs. The S&P 500 was essentially even (10-point loss), despite the surge over the final two sessions, falling far short of its average gain of almost 2% over the past few decades. Readings of note included the rise in oil prices again, increased risk (as indicated by the MMRI in the above chart), and continued negative CEO/business sentiment. This put a damper on the month, as expected.
Looking forward to the month of August, it is seasonally a weaker month than July, with an average of slight gains, leading into the statistical worst month of the year, September (though the last 2 years have been positive). As quarterly earnings season fade out, volatility may subside a bit, though the ever-changing military conflict status will continue to influence the market fluctuation. Catalysts for advancement are also rare during this time (without many earnings reports remaining), and vacationing traders keeps the volume low, which tends to result in a drift downward in the equities markets. Leading chipmaker NVIDIA (NVDA) reports earnings on August 26, which could cause some movement in that sector at the end of the month.
***As always, this information is not intended to be financial advice, or any specific buy or sell recommendation, but rather a guide to assist the reader in some further understanding of current economic conditions.
