INDICATOR INSIGHTS
Monthly Update
CATEGORY
Market Sentiment/Risk MO. ENDCHANGELEVEL
Fear & Greed Index (Market sentiment) 49 +7 Neutral
VIX (S&P 500 Volatility measure) 14.9 - 1.1 Neutral
MMRI (Risk measured by interest rates) 294 + 2 High risk
U.S. 10yr-bond yield 4.76 +.04 Increase - bearish
Fear & Greed Bitcoin76+ 43Bullish
CSI (Consumer Sentiment) 51.7 - 3.5 Bearish
U.S. Economy UP/DOWNLEVEL
LEI (Overall leading indicators) Slight Up Bullish (July)
GDP (Gross Domestic Product)SlightUp Neutral
ISM/PMI (Producers Manufacturing Index) Up Bullish
CPI/PPI (Consumer & Producer Price Index) Even Neutral LTE
Personal Income Slight Up Neutral
Consumer Confidence/Retail Spending Down Bearish
Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Slight Up Bearish
JOLTS (Unemployment categories) Even Neutral
ADP (Jobs – non-farm payroll added) Up Bullish
(Initial and continued jobless claims) Even Bullish For economy
Transports (Shipping, durable goods orders) Up Bullish
Real Estate (New/existing sales) Down Bearish
(Housing starts/Construction) Down Bearish
(Mortgage demand) Even Bearish
Business Activity/CEO Confidence Up BullishStill below Q1 2026
**This section updated to the market close on August 31, 2026
**LTE = Lower than expected (bearish) / HTE = Higher than expected (bullish)
***We may not present the most recent numbers (often revised, and unreported in the mainstream media). Actual figures and charts can be found on the internet, including the FRED (Federal Reserve Economic Data) website.
Price Action UP/DOWNLEVEL
RSI (Relative Price Strength) Down Bearish
PCR (Put to Call Ratio – 5 day avg) Slight Up Neutral to bearish
ADL (Advance/Decline line) Up Bullish
MFI (Money Flow Index) Slight Up Bullish/Neutral
Institutional Trading Even Neutral
Commodities MO. ENDCHANGELEVEL
Gold to Silver Ratio 67.7 - 3.4 Neutral
Crude Oil 85.95 - 0.85 Bearish
Index Pct of Highs 20-Day50-Day200-DayLEVEL
OVERALL Markets 37 4756Decrease - bearish
DJIA (Blue Chips) 40 50 70 Decrease short term
S&P 500 (Top 500) 39 50 66 Decrease short term
QQQ (Technology) 36 46 63 Decrease short term
IWM (Small Caps) 32 44 62Decrease short term
As introduced in Chapter 3 of our publication When to Buy and When to Sell: Combining Easy Indicators, Charts, and Financial Astrology (available on Amazon), there are several “leading indicators” that go largely unnoticed and under-utilized by the average beginner or intermediate investor. Some of these indicators measure human emotion and market sentiment that often determines shorter term price action, while others uncover the true conditions of the economy, institutional buying and selling, and risk levels.
Our monthly updates in the “Indicator Insights” blog (first weekend of each month) provide month-end levels pertaining to the U.S. economy and/or the S&P 500. This includes several market psychology related gauges, including the S&P 500 Fear & Greed Index, although there will be no commentary, as we dedicate an entire separate weekly blog to that specific indicator. Please take a moment to review the attached figures.
In the last edition, covering July of 2026, we discussed how the month did not follow the normal script, as we had suggested in previous blogs. The S&P 500 was essentially even (10-point loss), despite the surge over the final two sessions, falling far short of its average gain of almost 2% over the past few decades. Readings of note included the rise in oil prices again, increased risk, and continued negative CEO/business sentiment. This put a damper on the month, as expected.
We also previewed that the month of August, which is traditionally seasonally weak, with an average of slight gains, leading into the statistical worst month of the year, September (though the last 2 years have been positive). As quarterly earnings season fades out, volatility was expected to subside a bit, though the ever-changing military conflict status would continue to influence the market fluctuation. We also stressed that catalysts for advancement are also rare during this time (without many earnings reports remaining), and vacationing traders keeping the volume low, which tends to result in a drift downward in the equities markets. Leading chipmaker NVIDIA (NVDA) was to report on earnings on August 26, which could cause some movement in that sector at the end of the month.
This year, August was uncharacteristically strong (based on its normal seasonal pattern), with the expected lower volatility, resulting in a solid month for the S&P 500, which gained 197points, or about 2.5%. All the gains, however, occurred in the first 2 trading days of the month, making these figures a bit deceptive, skewing both July and August returns, especially based on their usual seasonality. Had July lasted 2 more days, the results would have been in-line with the common seasonality. The rest of the month was actually slightly negative, with high pressure on bonds and oil prices that are rising once again. The usual successful NVDA earnings report did give the Nasdaq a boost on Thursday, August 27, however, a large portion of the gains reversed on Friday, August 28.
Looking forward to the month of September, it is statistically the weakest month of the year, normally resulting in added volatility, as institutions and traders ramp up the trading volume after returning from summer vacations. The last 2 years, however, have been positive in this month, which would start to become a trend should it happen again this year. Watch for possible gains in the last few days of the month due to Quarter-End Window Dressing, which we have discussed on several occasions in the past. There remains a significant amount of uneasiness in the markets, however, despite recent highs, and it may be wise to wait for clear opportunities, and lower your position sizes for the time being.
***As always, this information is not intended to be financial advice, or any specific buy or sell recommendation, but rather a guide to assist the reader in some further understanding of current economic conditions.
