INDICATOR INSIGHTS
Monthly Review
CATEGORY
Market Sentiment/Risk MO. END CHANGE LEVEL
Fear & Greed Index (Market sentiment) 44 +20 Neutral
VIX (S&P 500 Volatility measure) 14.9 -1.6 Neutral
MMRI (Risk measured by interest rates) 254 +6 High risk
U.S. 10yr-bond yield 4.16 +.14 Increase
Fear & Greed Bitcoin 32 +12 Fear
CSI (Consumer Sentiment) 52.9 +1.9 Better – still very low
U.S. Economy UP/DOWN LEVEL
LEI (Overall leading indicators) Down Bearish, but old data
GDP (Gross Domestic Product) Up Bullish
ISM/PMI (Producers Manufacturing Index) Slight Down Bearish
CPI (Consumer Price Index) Slight Up Bearish
(Minus Food & Energy) Even Neutral
Consumer Confidence/Retail Spending Mixed Neutral
Personal Consumption Expenditures Slight Up Bearish
JOLTS (Unemployment categories) NO DATA N/A
ADP (Jobs – non-farm payroll added) Down Bearish
(Initial and continued jobless claims) Down Bullish
Transports (Shipping, durable goods orders) Slight Down Bearish
Real Estate (New/existing sales) Up Bullish
(Housing starts/Construction) Mixed Neutral
(Mortgage demand) Mixed Neutral
Business Activity/CEO Confidence Mixed Neutral – improved
sentiment
**This section updated on December 31, 2025
**LTE = Lower than expected (bearish) / HTE = Higher than expected (bullish)
***We may not present the most recent numbers (often revised, and unreported in the mainstream media). Actual figures and charts can be found on the internet, including the FRED (Federal Reserve Economic Data) website.
Price Action UP/DOWN LEVEL
RSI (Relative Price Strength) Down Bearish
PCR (Put to Call Ratio – 5 day avg) Slight Down Bullish
ADL (Advance/Decline line) Even Neutral
MFI (Money Flow Index) Even Neutral
Institutional Trading Selling Bearish
Commodities MO. END CHANGE LEVEL
Gold to Silver Ratio 60.3 -14.3 Favoring Gold
Crude Oil 57.41 -1.07 Neutral
Index Pct of Highs 20-Day 50-Day 200-Day Level
OVERALL Markets 36 52 53 Declining
DJIA (Blue Chips) 47 57 73 Mixed
S&P 500 (Top 500) 42 56 59 Mixed
QQQ (Technology) 31 52 61 Mixed
IWM (Small Caps) 29 53 60 Mixed
As introduced in Chapter 3 of our publication When to Buy and When to Sell: Combining Easy Indicators, Charts, and Financial Astrology (available on Amazon), there are several “leading indicators” that go largely unnoticed and under-utilized by the average beginner or intermediate investor. Some of these indicators measure human emotion and market sentiment that often determines shorter term price action, while others uncover the true conditions of the economy, institutional buying and selling, and risk levels.
In our monthly “Indicator Insights” blog (first weekend of each month) we report the previous month-end levels (pertaining to the U.S. economy and/or the S&P 500) regarding several of these easy-to-read gauges (as well as others) to provide a quick-guide for our readers, with periodic analysis when necessary. Our monthly updates in this blog section include several market psychology related gauges, including the S&P 500 Fear & Greed index updated level, although there will be no commentary, as we dedicate an entire separate weekly blog to that specific indicator. Please take a moment to review the attached figures.
***Please note that this month’s information is the first available in 2-3 months in some U.S. Economy categories due to the recent government shutdown, as not all reports were published.
In the last edition, covering November of 2025, we noted that the S&P 500 barely eked out a gain, annually the most favorable month over the last few decades, after an unusually strong October.
This month, December, we focus on declining market internals, mainly the major index’ moving average figures that we consistently document in our Fear & Greed Index weekly update. As depicted above, the internals moved down consistently during the course of the month, finally influencing the major indexes. Aside from the holiday-shortened week ending December 26, there was downward pressure on the majority of stocks and sectors, especially technology. The anticipated end of December “Santa Claus Rally” never fully developed, and technically ends on Monday, January 5.
“Readings of note” in the month of December included the Federal Reserve’s 2nd rate cut of .25 basis points for the 2nd time in 3 months (the other coming in October) and the surprisingly successful retail earnings, that far exceeded expectations. However, it is important to realize that 50% of the spending derived from only 10% of the population, as working-class individuals continued to struggle. Consumer Confidence and Sentiment leveled off, but remain at low levels, despite the improvement in retail spending during the holiday season. Real Estate reports were also mixed, as mortgage applications rose due to lowering rates, but construction and sales remained inconsistent, with growing inventories. This industry is heavily dependent on interest rates, and related stocks have improved since the December 10 rate cut, but remain very low.
Overall, volatility calmed for most part during December, with the VIX declining to the 14 range, after spikes to the high 20’s last month. The current low levels suggest another increase in the future, as the VIX is “mean-reverting.” Remember to keep stop-loss orders mental (not in the system), and keep some cash aside to take advantage of buying opportunities. Also, short-term investors and traders should beware of any false rallies, as they occur often during rising volatility.
Finally, the famous January Effect (also discussed in our publication) will be in focus, starting this Friday, January 2, 2026, the first trading day of the new year. January is often positive, as “new” money is added to pension and retirement funds, however beware the 2nd year of the Presidential Cycle (known as the Mid-Term Election Year), discussed in our 12-27-25 Did You Know? blog by the same name.
***As always, this information is not intended to be financial advice, or any specific buy or sell recommendation, but rather a guide to assist the reader in some further understanding of current economic conditions.
