INDICATOR INSIGHTS
Monthly Update
CATEGORY
Market Sentiment/Risk MO. END CHANGE LEVEL
Fear & Greed Index (Market sentiment) 31 -29 Fear
VIX (S&P 500 Volatility measure) 16.5 +1.2 Neutral
MMRI (Risk measured by interest rates) 279 +6 High risk
U.S. 10yr-bond yield 4.45 +.01 Even
Fear & Greed Bitcoin 16 -18 Extreme Fear
CSI (Consumer Sentiment) 49.5 +4.7 Up – but still low
U.S. Economy UP/DOWN LEVEL
LEI (Overall leading indicators) Slight Up Neutral (May)
GDP (Gross Domestic Product) Slight Up Neutral (Revision)
ISM/PMI (Producers Manufacturing Index) Up Neutral WTE
CPI/PPI (Consumer & Producer Price Index) Up Bearish HTE
Personal Income Slight Up Bullish In-line with expect
Consumer Confidence/Retail Spending Slight Up Bullish (Still down YOY)
Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Even Neutral In-line with expect
JOLTS (Unemployment categories) Up Bullish
ADP (Jobs – non-farm payroll added) Even Neutral WTE
(Initial and continued jobless claims) Even Neutral
Transports (Shipping, durable goods orders) Slight Up Neutral WTE
Real Estate (New/existing sales) Mixed Neutral
(Housing starts/Construction) Even Neutral WTE
(Mortgage demand) Even Bearish
Business Activity/CEO Confidence DOWN Bearish Large drop in Q2
**This section updated to the market close on July 2, 2026
**LTE = Lower than expected (bearish) / HTE = Higher than expected (bullish)
***We may not present the most recent numbers (often revised, and unreported in the mainstream media). Actual figures and charts can be found on the internet, including the FRED (Federal Reserve Economic Data) website.
Price Action UP/DOWN LEVEL
RSI (Relative Price Strength) Slight Up Bullish
PCR (Put to Call Ratio – 5 day avg) Up Bearish over-extended
ADL (Advance/Decline line) Flat Neutral consolidation
MFI (Money Flow Index) Flat Neutral consolidation
Institutional Trading Even Neutral
Commodities MO. END CHANGE LEVEL
Gold to Silver Ratio 68.4 +8.2 Neutral – rising silver bias
Crude Oil 69.76 18 Bullish
Index Pct of Highs 20-Day 50-Day 200-Day LEVEL
OVERALL Markets 61 58 58 Increase
DJIA (Blue Chips) 47 57 63 Lower
S&P 500 (Top 500) 63 62 61 Decrease
QQQ (Technology) 67 64 66 Slight Increase – Naz 100 down
IWM (Small Caps) 71 67 65 Increase
As introduced in Chapter 3 of our publication When to Buy and When to Sell: Combining Easy Indicators, Charts, and Financial Astrology (available on Amazon), there are several “leading indicators” that go largely unnoticed and under-utilized by the average beginner or intermediate investor. Some of these indicators measure human emotion and market sentiment that often determines shorter term price action, while others uncover the true conditions of the economy, institutional buying and selling, and risk levels.
In our monthly “Indicator Insights” blog (first weekend of each month) we report the previous month-end levels (pertaining to the U.S. economy and/or the S&P 500), including several of these easy-to-read gauges to provide a quick-guide for our readers, with periodic analysis when necessary. Our monthly updates in this blog section include several market psychology related gauges, including the S&P 500 Fear & Greed Index, although there will be no commentary, as we dedicate an entire separate weekly blog to that specific indicator. Please take a moment to review the attached figures.
In the last edition, covering May of 2026, we discussed the positive returns, with the S&P 500 gaining almost 4%, and the technology heavy Nasdaq surging 8%, despite the continued military conflict in the Middle-East and high oil prices until the last few days of the month. Earnings season was very strong in the technology sector, especially in semi-conductors/chips companies, and space-related stocks also surged with the highly anticipated SpaceX IPO approaching on June 12.
In years past, as mentioned, the month of June has often resulted in increased volatility though gains or losses are usually limited. As noted last month, and in several previous blogs, the Sell in May and Go Away (until the Fall) strategy no longer applies, especially with the creation of algorithmic/machine trading. This year June followed suit with the norm, with added volatility, and a relatively flat month in the S&P 500, which declined about 81 points, or 1%.
“Readings of note” in the month of June, included the all-important Put to Call Ratio, which measures activity in the options futures market. The higher the gauge reads indicates a higher PUT bias, while the lower the gauge moves indicates a higher Call bias in the options market, which normally results in a reversal at either extreme. The reading this month was very volatile, reaching extremes on several occasions, and reversing the market each time. The whipsaw action made trading consistency very difficult, unfortunately, and as a result, both the Advance/Decline Line and the Money Flow Index experienced volatility as well, ending the month flat, reflecting non-directional price action. Overall, it was a typical June across the major indexes.
Also noted in the month of June was the much-anticipated SpaceX IPO (SPCX), the new Fed Chairman’s first public appearance, and sector rotation away from semiconductors/chips, which had rallied significantly. Economic data showed slight improvements in Consumer Sentiment/Confidence, Manufacturing, Jobs, and market internals, but weakness in energy (military conflict-related), metals, and cryptocurrency. Industries including housing and personal income/spending were basically neutral, with a slight rise in inflation.
The month of July (2nd best month of the year) is commonly more positive than the preceding month, though it historically does not sustain any rallies through the rest of the summer and early Fall. September, which has become the worst month for returns over the past few decades, has been positive the past two years, so the back-and-forth market action may continue leading into the 4th Quarter.
***As always, this information is not intended to be financial advice, or any specific buy or sell recommendation, but rather a guide to assist the reader in some further understanding of current economic conditions.
