FEAR & GREED INDEX 10
Weekly Update
The Fear & Greed Index (found on cnn.com) is one of the easiest indicators to use to determine current market emotion. This simple to read gauge, highlighted in our publication When to Buy and When to Sell: Combining Easy Indicators, Charts, and Financial Astrology (available on Amazon), is measured in a range from 0-100, and currently reads 10 as of the close on Friday, March 27, 2026, the lowest close since it read 8 last November 20.
This figure slipped even further into the Extreme Fear level over the past two days, after declining 5 points from last week’s close of 15. This was reflected in the S&P 500, which plunged about 138 points, from 6,506 to 6,368, as the global conflict remains the main culprit. As we often note, the further this gauge drops, the more likely a bounce in equities becomes. Though there is no official time frame to expect for reversal, historically markets rise out of this level within a couple of weeks. On the last two occasions, in late March/early April, 2025, the gauge dropped to 4, and was above 25 by mid-April, and in November of 2025, it dipped to 8 mid-month and recovered just after Thanksgiving. Prepare a “watch” list of strong stocks, and consider major indexes for the expected change of momentum. An end, or significant ease, to the military conflict could easily push stocks higher.
The 4 major indexes’ 200-day MAs (Moving Averages) internal sentiment remains bearish, as they have all dipped well below 50%. The shorter-term 20 and 50-day MAs also remain extremely low, especially the DJIA and Nasdaq 100, leading the way around 10-11%, dragging the 200’s with them.
The “Risk-Off” sentiment heightened this week, as geopolitical conflict, rising mortgage rates, and rising inflation figures continued to weigh on the markets. 10-year bond yields rose again, ending the week at 4.43%, vs last week’s close of 4.38%, confirming that the “risk-off” is not a result of a Flight-to-Quality move (selling stocks to buy bonds), but outright selling. The Mannarino Risk Indicator (noted in our monthly Indicator Insights blog, and our publication) has also reached 276, its highest danger level since the end of July. Stagflation, when the economy is slowing and inflation is rising, is now a concern as well.
The 7 internal factors used to formulate this gauge are listed on the screen (below):
Market Momentum – (S&P 500 vs its 125-day moving avg) = EXTREME FEAR
Market Volatility (measured by the VIX) = FEAR
Put to Call Ratio 5-day avg. (# of Puts (bearish) vs Calls (bullish) = EXTREME FEAR
Stock Price Strength (# of new 52-week highs vs new 52-week lows) = EXTREME FEAR
Stock Price Breadth (# of shares rising vs falling on NYSE) = EXTREME FEAR
Safe-Haven Demand (which measures stocks vs bonds) = EXTREME FEAR
Junk Bond Demand (non-govt. bond yield spread) = EXTREME FEAR
This week, none of these 7 factors changed levels, as all remain in Extreme Fear categories. It is interesting, however, that the Put to Call Ratio, which closed at .90 on Wednesday, declined by 20% by Friday afternoon, closing at 0.74. This suggests that put buying may be overdone, as mentioned last week, and a potential improvement in equities is on the horizon.
The VIX, measured by Market Volatility, oscillated again this week, closing 2.6 points higher at 31, compared to last week’s close of 28.4. The gauge has now remained above the crucial “20” danger-zone level for 20 straight trading days, and continues to move higher. As we warned over the past several weeks, March is normally very wishy-washy, but tends to improve over the following weeks. In 2025, the markets bottomed around April 8, due to tariff uncertainty, and current conditions imply these figures are dependent on the global conflict coming to an end.
News this week continued to be mainly focused on the geopolitical conflict in the Middle East, as the markets have been news driven over recent weeks. Oil prices crept up again to the mid-$90’s, and Consumer Sentiment, dropped 3.3 points to 53.3, due to higher oil prices and the market decline curbing spending. As the uncertainty persists, and the VIX remains over 20, markets are likely to continue their struggle. Do not forget, as mentioned in the past several weeks in this blog, we are in 2nd year of the Presidential Cycle, which has historically posted the worst returns of the 4-year cycle (please review our Did You Know – About the Mid-Term Election Year blog, dated 12-27-25).
Astrologically, Aries season, the 1st sign of the zodiac, ruled by Mars (Mar 21 – Apr 19), began last weekend. Please see our recent Sign Language – Aries blog, dated 3-6-26 for full details. The very active sky from Pisces season continues into Aries season, though the latest Mercury Retrograde mercifully ended last Friday. Aries’ fiery, aggressive, act-first, think-later energies will now move to the forefront, requiring more emotional control than usual.
The planet Mercury remains in the sign of Pisces (until Apr 14), and is now “direct,” suggesting better communication and hopefully less volatility going forward, though geopolitical matters may supersede seasonality. The current Mercury Retrograde, from February 26 through March 20, ended with a 6.3% decline (440 points) in the S&P 500. As we often warn, this period of approximately 3 weeks (which normally occurs three times per year) is very volatile and often signifies a market decline/cycle bottom, within a short time frame, as it did last April. When the event occurs in a water sign (Pisces on this occasion), the losses can be larger than normal.
The planet Venus will transit from the sign of Aries to Taurus tomorrow, March 30, for about 3 ½ weeks, moving from the full-speed ahead approach (Aries) to a much more grounded and logical Earth sign (Taurus). Venus’ is at “home” in one of its two “ruling” signs (Libra is the other) and is usually very favorable for Bitcoin. Although Venus in Taurus sees gains historically, it will form a square aspect with Pluto next weekend, so be cautious with trusting any rally this coming week. Please see our Trader Transits – Venus in Taurus blog, dated 3-26-26, for more details.
As the planet Mars approaches the sign of Aries (its ruling sign with Scorpio), entering on April 9, the aggressive energies ramp up again. Mars formed a square with the planet Uranus a few weeks ago, resulting in a sudden plunge in the technology sector, and will now form a square with Pluto (in Aquarius), so watch for more fireworks in that sector. Mars’ overzealous energies can be dangerous in an uncertain market, so be sure not to FOMO into any speculative stocks for the time being.
As the planet Uranus (sudden events) approaches its final month in the sign of Taurus (money), until April 25th, wild price swings are expected to continue, especially in the technology (Uranus) sector. The planet returns to Gemini, ruled by Mercury (considered a lower-level Uranus) a sign of high intelligence and technology, in about 6 weeks, where it will remain until May of 2033.
Although the recent Saturn-Neptune conjunction (Feb 27), is beginning to separate, the effect is long-lasting with these slow-moving planets. This conjunction traditionally causes a pull and push between structure and restriction (Saturn) and dreams and ideals (Neptune), which has held true with the market uncertainty. With the Sun, Mercury, and Mars crossing over these planets during Aries season, the likelihood of rallies starting, and stopping, with no clear direction, remains.
Leading sectors continued to include Energy and Utilities (which recovered after a brief blip), typical in current economic/global conditions, as all others have fallen off the map. Current laggards, Consumer-related, Healthcare, and Financials remained very low, which is not a positive indication in the short term. These three, however, remain at historical short-term low levels, suggesting a bounce sooner-rather-than-later. Real estate also remains down, with decreasing sales reports in recent weeks. Sectors of the technology industry that are likely to continue their advance into the future include AI, robotics, quantum computing, and space development (with Pluto positioned in Aquarius, and Uranus in Gemini for many years to come – when it returns in April), though they will experience pullbacks along the way.
Gold (ruled by the Sun), and Silver (ruled by the Moon), oscillated heavily this week, despite continued uncertain conditions. The Gold to Silver Ratio (covered in our publication) dropped almost 2 points, ending the week at 64.4, after last week’s close of 66.1, remaining rather neutral. Both metals remain good buys after pullbacks, so long as economic conditions remain the same, with central banks continuing to buy, and Safe-Haven investments expected to remain popular. Bitcoin (ruled by Uranus) remained flat all week, and continues its long consolidation. Uranus (sudden change/technology) now direct in Taurus (money), combined with Venus (money) entering Taurus this week sets the stage for some fireworks, as noted above. Its Fear & Greed Index now reads 25, remaining in Fear territory, even with last week’s close of 25. A few weeks ago, we suggested a possible bounce when the reading was 18, though we remain cautious until a clear uptrend has developed.
***As always, this information is not intended to be financial advice, or any specific buy or sell recommendation, but rather a guide to assist the reader in some further understanding of current economic conditions/movements in the sky, and how they can affect moods, behaviors, world events, and financial markets.
