FEAR & GREED INDEX 61
Weekly Update
The Fear & Greed Index (found on cnn.com) is one of the easiest indicators to use to determine current market emotion. This simple to read gauge, highlighted in our publication When to Buy and When to Sell: Combining Easy Indicators, Charts, and Financial Astrology (available on Amazon), is measured in a range from 0-100, and currently reads 61 as of the close on Friday, August 22, 2025.
This figure now sits in the mid-Greed level, after falling 3 points from last week’s close of 64. The S&P 500, which gained about 16 points, from 6,450 to 6,466, had dipped for 5 straight days until Friday morning, when it suddenly surged almost 100 points (after Fed Chairman Powell’s hint at a possible interest rate cut in September) to close in the green. The four major indexes, which include the S&P 500, Nasdaq, Dow Jones Industrial, and Russell 2000 (small cap index), have also rather quietly resumed their bullish sentiment (when over 50% of their components continue to trade over their 200-day moving averages). Each index is now well over 60%, with the Dow leading the way at 83%, signifying a more broadly healthy market not just being dominated by the Mag7. Currently, the 20-day moving average for all 4 indices combined stands at 61%, as it continues to rise.
The “Risk-On” sentiment saw a resurgence after the Fed meeting on Friday. The 10-year bond yields declined to 4.26%, after closing last week at 4.32%, as the interest rate cut in September appears more likely.
The 7 internal factors used to formulate this gauge are listed on the screen (below):
Market Momentum – (S&P 500 vs its 125-day moving avg) = GREED
Market Volatility (measured by the VIX) = NEUTRAL
Put to Call Ratio 5-day avg. (# of Puts (bearish) vs Calls (bullish) = GREED
Stock Price Strength (# of new 52-week highs vs new 52-week lows) = GREED
Stock Price Breadth (# of shares rising vs falling on NYSE) = NEUTRAL
Safe-Haven Demand (which measures stocks vs bonds) = NEUTRAL
Junk Bond Demand (non-govt. bond yield spread) = GREED
This week, 2 of these 7 factors changed levels as Greed sentiment resurfaced on Friday, and took back control the markets. The Put to Call Ratio slid back to Greed, from Extreme Greed, and Safe Haven Demand neutralized. As we have noted recently, August and September are seasonally weak, though last year was an exception. Consolidation (which has basically been the recent price action), rather than a correction, would be considered positive in the long run.
The VIX, measured by Market Volatility, remains in Neutral territory, falling to 14.2, after ending the last 2 weeks at 15.1. The “20” level on the VIX is often considered a crucial level, as anything under 20 suggests calm markets, and anything over reflects more uncertainty/nervousness among investors and traders. For the past two weeks we noted that this figure was approaching a “reversal” level, suggesting another possible spike in volatility, which finally occurred early in the week. But, again, Friday’s major rally caused another reversal in this figure.
This week’s news was mainly focused on earnings in the retail sector, and Leading Economic Reports. Areas including housing, manufacturing, and increasing jobless claims. That is, until the comments made by Mr. Powell’s suddenly softer stance on policy despite lingering employment and inflation concerns. Volatility in the equities markets is likely to persist for the next 4-6 weeks, as seasonality, and the much-anticipated Fed rate cut decision in their September meeting weighs on investors.
Astrologically, Leo season (July 22 – Aug 22) has now ended and given way to Virgo season (Aug 23 – Sept 22). Leo’s proud and outgoing energies are being replaced by the perfection seeking Virgo energies (please review our Sign Language – Virgo Season blog, dated 8-8-25 for more details). During Leo season, as projected, we experienced an accelerated amount of world leaders and CEOs attempting to impose their wills, culminating with the “peace” talks of the last week regarding the Russia/Ukraine conflict. Virgo season, much like Leo season, is typically weak in the equity markets. Virgo’s focus on excellence and perfection, however, will tend to be revealed in the punishment of stocks who miss earnings expectations, do not provide a highly positive forward-looking statements, and/or are over-valued compared to normal industry standards. In other words, there is no more free lunch, at least in the short term, for companies not proving their worth.
With the planet Venus’ ingress to the sign of Cancer last month (ending tomorrow), we reminded readers that emotions should be kept in check, and one should not fall victim to FOMO (Fear of Missing Out), as discussed in our recent Trader Transits – Venus in Cancer blog, dated 7-21-25. The anticipated volatility and slight pullback arrived early this week before Friday’s surge.
Mercury and Venus will now be transiting the sign of Leo together, for about 1 week, before Mercury enters Virgo (one of its 2 “ruling” signs) on September 1. Globally, this translates to better communication between world leaders, which may have already begun. Financially, the Consumer Discretionary sector may see a boost as “treating” or investing in one’s self is a Venus (value) in Leo (self) attribute.
The planet Mars recent ingress to Libra (a peaceful, balanced sign) also suggests a potential consolidation and fairly-priced market, though its opposition to Saturn and Neptune in the sign of Aries (ruled by Mars) can result in further confusion (Neptune) and challenges (Saturn) regarding global conflict and financial markets. This also supports the likelihood of increased volatility over the next month and a half.
Leading sectors, with over 50% of stocks trading over their 200-MAs, continue to include Utilities, and Communications Services, which remain well over 80%, followed closely by Consumer Discretionary, Financials, and Industrials (well over 70%), while Energy and Real Estate continue to lag, but are improving. In the long run, sectors of the technology industry that are likely to continue their advance into the future include AI, robotics, quantum computing, and space development (with Pluto in Aquarius, and Uranus recent ingress into Gemini).
Gold (ruled by the Sun), and Silver (ruled by the Moon), seemed to bottom of Tuesday of this week, before both advanced through Friday. As noted for the past two months, the Jupiter in Cancer transit, which began on June 9, is favorable for silver, and jump-started a much-anticipated rally in that metal. The Gold to Silver Ratio (covered in our publication), which had remained disproportionately in favor of silver for quite some time, has been steady in the past month or so, closing at 86.5, after last week’s close of 87.6 (remaining near its lowest level since mid-December). The outlook remains the same for both, however, as any dip in these metals continues to be a long-term buying opportunity. Copper has also been rallying heavily following a sharp downturn, and its strength should continue absent any recession concerns.
***As always, this information is not intended to be financial advice, or any specific buy or sell recommendation, but rather a guide to assist the reader in some further understanding of current economic conditions/movements in the sky, and how they can affect moods, behaviors, world events, and financial markets.
