INDICATOR INSIGHTS

Monthly Review

CATEGORY

Market Sentiment/Risk                          MO. END/CHANGE/LEVEL

Fear & Greed Index (Market sentiment)                  15                -28       Extreme Fear

VIX (S&P 500 Volatility measure)                   25.4           +5.8      Fear for 22 days

MMRI (Risk measured by interest rates)                266             +26       High risk

U.S. 10yr-bond yield                                                 3.95             -.29       Decrease

Fear & Greed Bitcoin                                                30               +14        Fear

CSI (Consumer Sentiment)                                       53.3               -4         Decrease/LTE

U.S. Economy                                               UP/DOWN/LEVEL

LEI (Overall leading indicators)                             Slight Down   Mild Bearish  (January)

GDP (Gross Domestic Product)   Down        Bearish (4th Q – 2025)

ISM/PMI (Producers Manufacturing Index)            Mixed         Neutral    

CPI/PPI (Consumer & Producer Price Index)            Up            Bearish  HTE    

Personal Income                                                           Down         Neutral   LTE

Consumer Confidence/Retail Spending                Slight Up      Neutral

Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE)             Even          Neutral           

JOLTS (Unemployment categories)                            Down         Neutral   BTE

ADP (Jobs – non-farm payroll added)                        Down          Bearish         

         (Initial and continued jobless claims)                 Even           Neutral

Transports (Shipping, durable goods orders)           Down         Bearish     

Real Estate (New/existing sales)                         Down         Bearish  16 mo. low

  (Housing starts/Construction)                                    Down         Bearish             

  (Mortgage demand)    Down   Bearish

Business Activity/CEO Confidence    Up           Bullish

**This section updated to pre-market on April 1, 2026

**LTE = Lower than expected (bearish) / HTE = Higher than expected (bullish)

***We may not present the most recent numbers (often revised, and unreported in the mainstream media). Actual figures and charts can be found on the internet, including the FRED (Federal Reserve Economic Data) website.

Price Action                                              UP/DOWN/LEVEL

RSI (Relative Price Strength)                          Down        Bearish  (Surge up on 3/31)

PCR (Put to Call Ratio – 5 day avg)                 Up           Bearish  (Drop on 3/31)

ADL (Advance/Decline line)                        Slight Up     Bullish but declining         

MFI (Money Flow Index)                                Slight Up     Bullish but declining

Institutional Trading Slight Selling   Neutral

Commodities                                  MO. END/CHANGE/LEVEL

Gold to Silver Ratio                                 62.8            +6.5        Neutral

Crude Oil                                            101.38      +34.09     Extreme Bearish

Index Pct of Highs                 20-Day/50-Day/200-Day/LEVEL

OVERALL Markets                     43            29 46 Decline

DJIA  (Blue Chips)                          36            24           47         Decline  

S&P 500  (Top 500)                     48            30          48          Decline

QQQ  (Technology)                        27            20          47          Decline  

IWM  (Small Caps)              47           30         48 Decline

As introduced in Chapter 3 of our publication When to Buy and When to Sell: Combining Easy Indicators, Charts, and Financial Astrology (available on Amazon), there are several “leading indicators” that go largely unnoticed and under-utilized by the average beginner or intermediate investor. Some of these indicators measure human emotion and market sentiment that often determines shorter term price action, while others uncover the true conditions of the economy, institutional buying and selling, and risk levels. 

     In our monthly “Indicator Insights” blog (first weekend of each month) we report the previous month-end levels (pertaining to the U.S. economy and/or the S&P 500), including several of these easy-to-read gauges to provide a quick-guide for our readers, with periodic analysis when necessary. Our monthly updates in this blog section include several market psychology related gauges, including the S&P 500 Fear & Greed Index, although there will be no commentary, as we dedicate an entire separate weekly blog to that specific indicator. Please take a moment to review the attached figures. 

***Please note that most U.S. Economy categories are now up-to-date, however a few continue to produce delayed data, due recent government shutdowns.  

      In the last edition, covering February of 2026, we noted decreasing market internals, over-extended gains, and the beginning of an expected pullback, that may carry through March, which is typically wishy-washy. We also mentioned to beware the 2nd year of the Presidential Cycle (known as the Mid-Term Election Year), discussed in our 12-27-25 Did You Know? blog by the same name. 

      This month, March, 2026, has held suit with further declines in the major indexes, the MAGS, and several sectors reaching historical lows. Though they might be considered good buys at these levels, any recovery will likely rely on the global conflict abruptly comes to an end. A slow, small-share, approach will keep the emotion of the equation, should one choose to “buy the dip” before a confirmed uptrend begins. 

      “Readings of note” in the month of March focused around the Fear & Greed Index recently plunge into the Extreme Fear level and the VIX remaining above 20 for the entire month. The gradual decline in equities has mainly been attributed to the global conflict and energy prices, however, inflation had risen and consumer sentiment has declined, adding to the pressure on the markets. Yesterday, a sudden surge occurred, which needs confirmation, before determining if “over-extended” conditions to the downside caused a “dead-cat” bounce, or if any rally is sustainable. Real estate woes also continued as new and existing home sales, and mortgage demand have continued to slump.  

      As noted, volatility continued throughout the month, with rising economic uncertainty and increased global tensions. The VIX spiked over the crucial “20” level on March 2, where it has remained for 22 straight trading sessions, closing the month at 25.4, though it closed over 30 the day before.  The VIX is “mean-reverting,” and often moves in tandem with the Put to Call Ratio. A spike in these gauges is often followed by a rally (reversal) in the markets, which may have begun yesterday. Remember to keep stop-loss orders mental (not in the system), and keep some cash aside to take advantage of these buying opportunities. Also, short-term investors and traders should beware of any false rallies, as they occur more often during high volatility. 

The month of April often results in an improvement in equities seasonally, though last year’s market bottom occurred around the end of the first week/beginning of the second week of the month. Last year’s culprit was the tariff uncertainty, while this year’s global conflict could delay any sustained rally. Should the volatility remain, sectors like Real Estate, Consumer Discretionary, and Technology will continue to struggle, while industries including Energy/Oil and Utilities will remain in favor, though caution should be heeded to avoid blindly jumping into oil stocks at high levels. A strong dollar, due to military spending, has also weakened the metals markets (normally considered safe-havens), which will also likely reverse with any positive news or when the dollar reverses downward again. Due to current conditions, including rising inflation, Bond yields have also surged, the Federal Reserve is now hinting at rate hikes, and Stagflation (a situation where growth is slowing while inflation is rising) is now a concern.     

***As always, this information is not intended to be financial advice, or any specific buy or sell recommendation, but rather a guide to assist the reader in some further understanding of current economic conditions.