INDICATOR INSIGHTS
Monthly Update
CATEGORY
Market Sentiment/Risk MO. END CHANGE LEVEL
Fear & Greed Index (Market sentiment) 58 +14 Lower Level Greed
VIX (S&P 500 Volatility measure) 17.0 -2.1 Neutral
MMRI (Risk measured by interest rates) 256 +2 High risk
U.S. 10yr-bond yield 4.24 +.08 Increase
Fear & Greed Bitcoin 18 -14 Extreme Fear
CSI (Consumer Sentiment) 52.9 +1.9 Better – 5-month hi
U.S. Economy UP/DOWN LEVEL
LEI (Overall leading indicators) Down Bearish - delay (Oct/Nov)
GDP (Gross Domestic Product) Slight Up Bullish
ISM/PMI (Producers Manufacturing Index) Slight Up Neutral - but WTE
CPI/PPI (Consumer & Producer Price Index) Even Neutral
(Minus Food & Energy) Even Neutral
Consumer Confidence/Retail Spending Down Bearish - 11.5 year low
Personal Consumption Expenditures Even Neutral
JOLTS (Unemployment categories) NO DATA N/A
ADP (Jobs – non-farm payroll added) Down Bearish
(Initial and continued jobless claims) Even Neutral
Transports (Shipping, durable goods orders) Slight Down Bearish
Real Estate (New/existing sales) Slight Down Bearish
(Housing starts/Construction) Mixed Neutral
(Mortgage demand) Down Bearish
Business Activity/CEO Confidence Down Bearish - multi year low
**This section updated on January 31, 2026
**LTE = Lower than expected (bearish) / HTE = Higher than expected (bullish)
***We may not present the most recent numbers (often revised, and unreported in the mainstream media). Actual figures and charts can be found on the internet, including the FRED (Federal Reserve Economic Data) website.
Price Action UP/DOWN LEVEL
RSI (Relative Price Strength) Up Bullish
PCR (Put to Call Ratio – 5 day avg) Slight Up Neutral
ADL (Advance/Decline line) Slight Up Bullish but declining
MFI (Money Flow Index) Slight Up Bullish but declining
Institutional Trading Selling Bearish
Commodities MO. END CHANGE LEVEL
Gold to Silver Ratio 57.3 -3 Favoring Gold
Crude Oil 65.74 +8.33 Bullish
Index Pct of Highs 20-Day 50-Day 200-Day LEVEL
OVERALL Markets 46 58 61 Increase
DJIA (Blue Chips) 67 67 73 Increase
S&P 500 (Top 500) 53 66 64 Increase
QQQ (Technology) 41 53 64 Increase
IWM (Small Caps) 50 60 64 Increase
As introduced in Chapter 3 of our publication When to Buy and When to Sell: Combining Easy Indicators, Charts, and Financial Astrology (available on Amazon), there are several “leading indicators” that go largely unnoticed and under-utilized by the average beginner or intermediate investor. Some of these indicators measure human emotion and market sentiment that often determines shorter term price action, while others uncover the true conditions of the economy, institutional buying and selling, and risk levels.
In our monthly “Indicator Insights” blog (first weekend of each month) we report the previous month-end levels (pertaining to the U.S. economy and/or the S&P 500) regarding several of these easy-to-read gauges (as well as others) to provide a quick-guide for our readers, with periodic analysis when necessary. Our monthly updates in this blog section include several market psychology related gauges, including the S&P 500 Fear & Greed index updated level, although there will be no commentary, as we dedicate an entire separate weekly blog to that specific indicator. Please take a moment to review the attached figures.
***Please note that some U.S. Economy categories continue to produce delayed, or no available data due to the recent government shutdown, as not all reports were published.
In the last edition, covering December of 2025, we noted that the S&P 500 was basically flat, with a mere 4-point gain for the month. The official Santa Claus Rally never fully developed, though it may have arrived early with a 5-day spurt from December 18 through December 24, which resulted a 219-point gain. Otherwise, the month was negative, with heavy pressure on technology stocks and declining market internals.
This month, January, 2026, we focus on increasing market internals, which showed signs of life during the month (until today - the last trading day of the month), which has been reflected with a broadening market (more stocks appreciating than declining). The first half of the month was solid across the board, and both the DJIA and IWM small-caps held up the best. The second half of the month was more volatile, especially in the tech-heavy Nasdaq, and a cautious approach would be suggested going into February, the next-to-last worst month for returns over the past few decades. Keep an eye on the Chips sector, however, as it tends to gain favor around mid-month.
Other “readings of note” in the month of January included declines in mortgage applications, due to rising rates, Business Activity/CEO confidence, at multi-year lows, and Consumer confidence/retail spending, now at its lowest in over a decade.
As noted, volatility picked up in the 2nd half of the month, as expected, with traders returning from the holiday breaks, and increased global tensions. The VIX spiked over the crucial “20” level briefly, on January 20th, for the first time since November 24, but quickly retreated from that level. The current low levels continue to suggest another increase in the future, as the VIX is “mean-reverting.” Remember to keep stop-loss orders mental (not in the system), and keep some cash aside to take advantage of buying opportunities. Also, short-term investors and traders should beware of any false rallies, as they occur more often during rising volatility.
The famous January Effect (also discussed in our publication) ended today as well, with the S&P 500 posting a modest 1% gain for the month, though the small cap IWM index increased by 4.8%, a good sign for the overall markets. January is often positive, as “new” money is added to pension and retirement funds, however beware the 2nd year of the Presidential Cycle (known as the Mid-Term Election Year), discussed in our 12-27-25 Did You Know? blog by the same name.
Finally, the metals market suffered a massive decline today (the last day of the month), after an unsustainable short-term surge, due to profit-taking and the announcement of the new Federal Reserve Chairman, set to transition in May. This individual has a reputation of favoring raising interest rates to preserve the value of the U.S. Dollar, which caused a large change in sentiment with the “safe” hedge trade regarding gold, silver, etc. When the dust settles, the price action in these metals should return to normal, so please do not panic.
***As always, this information is not intended to be financial advice, or any specific buy or sell recommendation, but rather a guide to assist the reader in some further understanding of current economic conditions.
