Monthly Review
CATEGORY
Market Sentiment/Risk MO. END CHANGE LEVEL
Fear & Greed Index (Market sentiment) 26 -5 Fear/Extreme Fear
VIX (S&P 500 Volatility measure) 19.4 +3.1 Neutral but rising
MMRI (Risk measured by interest rates) 312 -23 Extreme High risk
U.S. 10yr-bond yield 4.9 -.5 Bearish
Fear & Greed Bitcoin 44 -23 Bearish
CSI (Consumer Sentiment) 48.0 - 0.1 Bearish (5-mo low)
U.S. Economy UP/DOWN LEVEL
LEI (Overall leading indicators) Even Bearish (Sept)
GDP (Gross Domestic Product) Slight Up Bullish HTE
ISM/PMI (Producers Manufacturing Index) Slight Up Bearish
CPI/PPI (Consumer & Producer Price Index) Slight Up Bearish HTE
Personal Income Slight Up Bullish
Consumer Confidence/Retail Spending Mixed Neutral Rise off 12-mo low
Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Slight Up Bearish HTE
JOLTS (Unemployment categories) Down Bearish 5-mo low
ADP (Jobs – non-farm payroll added) Even Neutral
(Initial and continued jobless claims) Even Bullish For economy BTE
Transports (Shipping, durable goods orders) Even Neutral
Real Estate (New/existing sales) Mixed Neutral
(Housing starts/Construction) Slight Down Bearish
(Mortgage demand) Down Bearish
Business Activity/CEO Confidence Down Bearish
**This section updated to the market close on October 30, 2026
**LTE = Lower than expected (bearish) / HTE = Higher than expected (bullish)
***We may not present the most recent numbers (often revised, and unreported in the mainstream media). Actual figures and charts can be found on the internet, including the FRED (Federal Reserve Economic Data) website.
Price Action UP/DOWN LEVEL
RSI (Relative Price Strength) Down Bearish
PCR (Put to Call Ratio – 5 day avg) Slight Down Neutral
ADL (Advance/Decline line) Down Bearish
MFI (Money Flow Index) Down Bearish
Institutional Trading Slight Down Bearish
Commodities MO. END CHANGE LEVEL
Gold to Silver Ratio 78.9 +10.6 Neutral – Silver incr bias
Crude Oil 102.95 +12.53 Bearish
Index Pct of Highs 20-Day 50-Day 200-Day LEVEL
OVERALL Markets 52 41 45 Improved - still bear level
DJIA (Blue Chips) 73 70 63 Short-term improvement
S&P 500 (Top 500) 69 60 59 Cross to bull LT
QQQ (Technology) 53 40 53 Cross to bull LT
IWM (Small Caps) 54 42 48 Improve – still bear level
As introduced in Chapter 3 of our publication When to Buy and When to Sell: Combining Easy Indicators, Charts, and Financial Astrology (available on Amazon), there are several “leading indicators” that go largely unnoticed and under-utilized by the average beginner or intermediate investor. Some of these indicators measure human emotion and market sentiment that often determines shorter term price action, while others uncover the true conditions of the economy, institutional buying and selling, and risk levels.
Our monthly updates in the “Indicator Insights” blog (first weekend of each month) provide month-end levels pertaining to the U.S. economy and/or the S&P 500. This includes several market psychology related gauges, including the S&P 500 Fear & Greed Index, although there will be no commentary, as we dedicate an entire separate weekly blog to that specific indicator. Please take a moment to review the attached figures.
In the last edition, covering September of 2026, the statistically weakest month of the year, (which had actually been positive the last 2 years), we cited that the S&P 500 declined by only 35 points (less than 0.5%) as intra-day volatility persisted in a market that couldn’t make up its mind. Readings of note included the Federal Reserve’s .25 % interest rate hike, a lack of market boosting catalysts, low volume from summer vacations beginning to increase, and the continued uncertainty regarding the military conflict. The expected rate increase by the Federal Reserve, and a continued weaker bond market, were also anticipated to keep markets in check, while Quarter-End Window Dressing was expected to provide a potential boost at month’s end.
We also previewed the month of October, noting that volatility would likely continue, though historically/seasonally the month ends with a modest average gain of slightly over 0.5%. Earnings season, starting mid-month usually energizes the markets, rewarding favorable results and positive guidance, while punishing those with shortfalls. However, it was also discussed that the 2nd year of the Presidential Cycle is usually the worst, partly due to Mid-Term Elections in early November, while uncertainty, global conflict, rising oil prices, low consumer confidence, and rising interest rates persisted at that time.
Looking forward to the month of November, the statistically strongest month of the year for equities, we enter the month with continue volatility. In normal circumstances, the period following the Mid-terms is very positive for equities, as they tend to trend upward for a few quarters, making the 3rd year of the Presidential Cycle the best of the 4 years. Remaining patient, selective, and able to put new money to work when opportunity arises, is likely the best strategy in current conditions.
For those interested in the Astrological arena, the end of both Mercury and Venus Retrograde mid-month changes the energies to a more positive outlook for markets, which coincides with the settling down of uncertainty and nervousness surrounding the Mid-Terms.
***As always, this information is not intended to be financial advice, or any specific buy or sell recommendation, but rather a guide to assist the reader in some further understanding of current economic conditions.
